By Rina Mukherji
LINGADBAEL VILLAGE, Karnataka, India, Mar 10 2025 – The Siddi community, descendants of slaves from Africa, is now becoming more involved with mainstream enterprises, including a forest homestay venture—which is changing their fortunes after years of discrimination on the Indian subcontinent where they were originally enslaved.

In the 15^th century, when the Portuguese arrived on the western coast of India, they brought with them several thousand slaves from the southeastern coast of Africa. These slaves, possibly hailing from African language-speaking tribes, were initially brought to the Portuguese colonies of Goa, Daman and Diu and were then sold to local Indian rulers at a profit.

Much later, around the early 19^th century, once slavery was declared illegal, the slaves were released by the Portuguese. Some, as per local lore, also managed to escape the clutches of their cruel masters. But even when released, such was the fear of the barbarity they had been subjected to that they feared recapture. Hence, they fled into the forested tracts of the present-day Indian state of Karnataka, bordering Goa. Other African slaves settled down in the forested tracts of Gir, near Junagadh in Gujarat, after the Portuguese had sold them to nawabs in the western Indian state of Gujarat.

The Portuguese were not the first to introduce African slaves into India. The first African slaves were brought from Abyssinia (present-day Ethiopia) by the Turco-Afghan Muslim invaders in the 11^th century when they conquered India. Hence, African slaves came to be called Habshi (from the Urdu term Habsh—meaning Abyssinia). Known to be excellent soldiers, some rose to become generals and petty officers—this gave rise to the term Siddi (African governor). Nevertheless, the majority of these slaves remained poor and exploited, looking forward to freedom.

Distinctly different in their looks, the Siddis of Karnataka continued to live in fear for centuries, despite escaping enslavement from their erstwhile Portuguese masters. Hence, they confined themselves to dwellings in the dense forests, living as hunter-gatherers. This was where they were ‘discovered’ by Gowdas (and revenue officials of the local rulers). Impressed by their physical strength, local officials employed Siddis as farm labor. The skills Siddis acquired in agriculture made them give up hunting and start farming small patches in the forest. But limited familiarity with the outside world and lack of literacy often saw them cheated of their wages or wrested off their farms by upper-caste landowners.

Siddi-run homestay at Lingadbael using mud-brick architecture. Credit: Rina Mukherji/IPS

Although Indian independence brought government schools to nearly every village, Siddi children would often be forced out of schools due to racist slurs and ridicule. Socially, they were placed below the lowest untouchables in India’s caste hierarchy, resulting in the community shying from interaction. Things started looking up for the Siddis only after 2003, when they were given the status of a scheduled tribe, entitling them to several benefits, including quotas in education and employment. India’s 2006 Forest Rights Act, too, empowered them as a forest-dwelling tribe to gather and sell non-timber forest produce, such as honey, wax, and cane. During the monsoon months, when farm employment is lacking, the Department of Social Welfare gives every Siddi family dry food hampers.

Siddi Culture, Religious Beliefs and Skills

The Siddis have no memories of their original African homeland. However, they are talented musicians and dancers and have a great sense of rhythm. Gagged and bound and dumped into sailing vessels, the only object from their homeland that the Siddis carried along was the Dammami, which they continue to play to this day. The Dammami is a drum made out of a log of wood, covered with animal skin. Originally fashioned out of wood and the skin of wild animals, the Dammami is now made out of wood from the Nandi (Spathodea or African tulip tree) or Rumda (cluster fig tree), with one end covered with a patch of sheep skin and the other with goat skin. The Dammami is a necessary accompaniment to the songs sung at every Siddi feast.

Whichever part of India the Siddis settled in, they assimilated and adopted local customs and religious beliefs. Gujarat Siddis have adopted clothing styles prevalent in Gujarat, while the Siddis of Karnataka are dressed like the people of Karnataka. The Siddis of Junagadh in Gujarat, who used to serve Muslim rulers, are Muslim, while those in Karnataka are generally Hindus, with a few Christians and a smaller number of Muslims. However, all Siddis, irrespective of religion, revere Siddi Baba. The shrine of Siddi Baba, in Ankola, attracts Siddis from all parts of Karnataka during an annual feast dedicated to the deity. Worship of the deity is conducted by a mirashi, or priest, who follows rituals modeled on Hindu practices and is a local patriarch. Sanu Siddi, who works as a forest guard in Lindabael, for instance, is a mirashi, who is an expert in Siddi oral history, despite being unlettered.

Siddis in Karnataka use Siddi bhasha (Siddi language—a mix of the local Goan Konkani, Marathi, and Urdu, with a few Kannada words). The influence of Goan food and language is strongly evident in their cuisine, with a typical Siddi meal comprising rice, amti (a sweet-sour syrup using a local fruit), cocum and coconut-flavored curries, meat, bananas, and mango. Drinks like kashayam (a warm milk-based drink) and cocum sherbet, common to coastal Maharashtra and Goa, are part of Siddi cuisine and are indicative of Siddi history. Remnants of their erstwhile hunter-gatherer skills define the Siddis; they are skilled at gathering honey and wax and are good at beekeeping. Several species of plants and their leaves are used to make fritters, cooling drinks, and heal afflictions.

Siddi community that runs the Damami homestay. Credit: Damami.in

In the ‘80s, a nationwide talent hunt by the Sports Authority of India (SAI) in remote regions of the country picked up and nurtured some talents from the community and got them trained to represent India in athletics, given their naturally athletic strength and build.

Notwithstanding the community continuing to depend on farm labor, literacy levels have risen with government schools being set up all over Idagundi gram panchayat and Yellapur taluka—this has enabled some Siddis to progress into more remunerative professions, such as acting in movies, teaching, and business, notwithstanding the discrimination they face.

Homestay Venture: A New Beginning

Of late, the National Rural Livelihoods Mission (NRLM) has set up homestays in Lingadbael village, owned and managed by Siddi women through their Nisarga Sparsha Self-Help Group (SHG). The venture was long in the making, though, as NRLM District Officer Nagraj Kalmane revealed to me.

“We were working among the Siddis, organizing them into self-help groups, and preparing them for livelihoods over the last decade.” To start this venture, NRLM joined hands with Suyatri, a Bangalore-based social enterprise, and Nirmiti Kendra, a government organization, to build the homestay cottages.

The venture was named Damami, after the unique drum whose notes spell the last vestige and only link of the Siddis to their lost African homeland. Even so, persuading the Siddis to take the idea up was not easy.

“The Siddis feared that running this homestay would undermine their culture,” Uttara Kanara Zilla Parishad’s Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Ishwar Prasad Kandoo tells IPS.

This meant interacting with the Siddi community using the offices of the Gram Panchayat (Village Self-Governing Body) and the local Siddi Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA), meeting and reaching out to Siddis in the Gram Sabha (Village Council) for months, before the community saw the advantages of the project.

“Since they work at the grassroots level, Suyatri was particularly useful as a bridge between the administration and the community,” Kandoo tells me. But once they were convinced, things were easy. Manjunath Siddi, who now works as a local guide to visitors at the homestay, came forth to part with some family land for the cottages to be built on and was instrumental in getting other members of his community to collaborate in the venture.

To start with, the Siddis were trained in basic housekeeping, carpentry, and electrical work to maintain the homestays by Suyatri. “We took them to Wynad in Kerala, where we run a homestay with women from the local community. They were taught the basics of hygiene and how to serve food to visitors,” Sumesh Mangalassery of Suyatri tells IPS. Of course, some were more receptive than others. For instance, Hema Hari Siddi, who served in Bengaluru and Mumbai in restaurants, took to the training effortlessly, unlike many of her counterparts.

The homestays, which opened to the public in May 2024, use traditional mud-brick architecture that the Siddis specialize in and comprise spacious rooms with tiled roofs and modern amenities. The cottages were hand-illustrated with Siddi folklore by Siddi women using limestone chalk.

Jevan Mane (dining hall in Siddi Bhasha) has its doorway decorated with an illustration of crawling ants, which are ground to make the traditional “saavli” chutney, a sauce made of crushed ants, ginger, onions, and garlic.

“It protects us from colds and builds our immunity,” say Hema Hari Siddi and compatriot Savita Ravi Siddi. The women are happy earning Rs 600 (USD 6.89) per day at the homestay, which is around twice the amount they made as farm labor.

Being a forest village in the interior and off the highway, Lingadbael is an attractive retreat away from the bustle of city life. NRLM’s collaborative tie-up with the Forest Department to conduct hikes along forest trails and marketing through Suyatri has already ensured a warm response from research scholars and students keen to study the Siddi community.

But being tucked away from urban centers has its disadvantages too. For one, electricity is erratic, and there is no mobile network. Every time the electricity goes off, the Wi-Fi connection is gone too. Neither is there any reliable transport to Lingadbael. Hence, visitors must rely on private transport to and from Hubli or Yellapur towns.

“We are planning to explore using solar power for uninterrupted electricity,” Rajmane tells me. There are also plans to build a modest platform to serve as a stage for the Siddi music and dance performances visitors enjoy here.

The Zilla Parishad (District Administration) is already in talks with Karnataka Tourism to include Lingadbael homestay as part of a tourist circuit. Talks are also on with private players to obtain tourist vehicles under their Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives.

“We are in talks with forest officials and the Eco-tourism Development Board to promote Lingadbael as an ideal site for birdwatching and star-gazing, given its greenery, clear skies, and tranquil environs,” says Kandoo. Once the homestay catches on, the Zilla Parishad plans to open a Sanjeevani Mart counter wherein woodcraft, pickles, and handicrafts can be sold to visitors to help the Siddi community earn some additional income.

For a community that has remained in the margins for so long, the homestay venture in picturesque Lingadbael, with its gushing waterfalls and gurgling streams, holds the promise of opening up a window to the wider world.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Mar 10 2025 – Faced with an impending cash crisis primarily due to non-payment of dues by the US and over 100 other member states– along with threats of a US withdrawal from the world body– there were widespread rumors the United Nations was re-costing and reducing its approved budget for 2025 while deciding to freeze hiring new staffers.

The United States currently pays about 22% of the United Nations’ regular budget and 27% of the peacekeeping budget. As of now, the United States owes $1.5 billion to the UN’s regular budget. And, between the regular budget, the peacekeeping budget, and international tribunals, the total amount the US owes is $2.8 billion.

The threat against the UN has been reinforced following a move by several Republican lawmakers who have submitted a bill on the U.S. exit from the U.N., claiming that the organization does not align with the Trump administration’s “America First” agenda.

Ian Richards, a former President of the Coordinating Committee of International Staff Unions and Associations and an economist at the Geneva-based UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), told IPS the rumors are true.

As of last Monday, he said, there was a hiring freeze in the UN Secretariat declared by the Controller. Departments such as UNCTAD, which typically take a year or more to fill positions, are particularly affected, he pointed out.

A memo last week to heads of UN Departments/Offices and Special Political Missions, from Chandramouli Ramanathan, Assistant Secretary-General and Controller, refers to “Managing the 2025 regular budget liquidity crisis”

The memo says “due to recent developments, we have reassessed the liquidity situation, especially the inflow forecasts. To mitigate the risk of defaulting on payments of legal obligations to personnel and vendors, the Secretary-General has directed us to manage the cash outflows more conservatively and to suspend hiring till the situation is clearer, and to ensure that we end the year within our liquidity reserves (in other words, no debts other than the borrowing from the liquidity reserves)”.

Accordingly, he said, it has been decided that “the financial spending ceiling for each entity will be reduced to about 80% of the approved budget including re-costing; and your budget for post and other staff costs will be calculated by taking into account the approved vacancy rates for your entity, re-costing for posts and some elements of other staff costs, and the actual expenditures during November and December last year”.

The financial spending ceiling for each special political mission will also be reduced to about 80% of its approved budget. All hiring for regular budget will be suspended with immediate effect for a minimum of 6 months through the end of August, according to the memo.

As of 5 March 2025, only 72 Member States (out of 193) have paid their regular budget assessments in full.

The top 10 contributors to the UN’s regular budget, based on assessed contributions, are the United States, China, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, Brazil, and Russia.

The regular budget for 2025 is $3.72 billion – around $120 million more than the $3.6 billion figure unveiled by Secretary-General António Guterres in October 2024 – and $130 million greater than the Organization’s 2024 budget. The total budget appropriation for 2025 amounts to $3,717,379,600.

The United States is the largest contributor, assessed at 22% of the regular budget and China the second-largest contributor, assessed at 18.7% of the regular budget.

The US has withdrawn from the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), while it has warned that two other UN organizations “deserve renewed scrutiny”– the UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).

Meanwhile, the United States has cut $377 million worth of funding to the UN reproductive and sexual health agency, UNFPA.

“At 7pm on 26 February, UNFPA was informed that nearly all of our grants (48 as of now) with USAID and the US State Department have been terminated,” the UN agency said.

“This decision will have devastating impacts on women and girls and the health and aid workers who serve them in the world’s worst humanitarian crises.”

The USAID grants were designated to provide critical maternal healthcare, protection from violence, rape treatment and other lifesaving care in humanitarian settings.

This includes UNFPA’s work to end maternal death, safely deliver babies and address horrific violence faced by women and girls in places like Gaza, Sudan and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Under-Secretary-General for Management Strategy, Policy and Compliance Catherine Pollard has decided that temporary job openings will be allowed during this period provided “there is no increase in the post costs for your entity”. To minimize the risk of running out of cash, it has also been decided to issue allotments in tranches, the memo says.

“If the liquidity situation improves or there is greater certainty about the timing and amounts of collections likely to be received, we will endeavour to release additional allotments as soon as possible. However, please do not count on such additional allotments”.

Nevertheless, if possible, please keep additional spending plans (beyond the 80%) for non-post costs handy in case we are able to release additional funds towards the end of the year.

Such spending must be for activities that can be implemented within a reasonable period, in order to mitigate the negative impact on programme delivery caused by the financial ceiling of 80%. 12.

“We will try our best to maximize the funding that can be made available. My Office is standing by to provide briefings and clarifications as necessary. We will also provide periodic briefings on the financial situation”.

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By Bashir Mobasher
Mar 10 2025 –  
The ongoing war in Ukraine has raised difficult questions for U.S. foreign policy. With U.S. and Russian leaders engaged in direct talks in Saudi Arabia over the future of the conflict, many are left wondering whether the Ukraine crisis could become another Afghanistan or Vietnam—two conflicts where the U.S. pursued peace talks with its adversaries while sidelining local governments, leading to catastrophic outcomes. Drawing lessons from these past negotiations and the eventual collapse of South Vietnam in 1975 and the Republic regime in Afghanistan in 2021, one cannot help but wonder whether Ukraine could face a similar fate unless the U.S. carefully navigates these talks with a more inclusive approach.

Ukraine’s situation is distinct in many ways from Afghanistan and Vietnam, including the fact that Ukraine is located in Europe, which has a vested interest in its security and sovereignty, and that Ukraine is under a direct invasion by a foreign country and so its leader has broader national support—South Vietnam and Afghan Republic were dealing with proxies. The question, however, is whether these differences set Ukraine off the course that Afghanistan and Vietnam journeyed. Bear in mind that Afghanistan’s war differed from Vietnam’s, as much as Ukraine’s case differed from both. Therefore, what makes the three cases similar is not necessarily their socio-political settings or geopolitics but how peace settlements are handled regarding these countries. Seemingly, the ongoing negotiations on Ukraine are following the same pattern as those that sealed the fate of Vietnam in 1975 and Afghanistan in 2021. These patterns include the following:

• The absence of the legitimate governments of the negotiated states from the peace talks
• The rise of a new narrative that delegitimizes local governments as weak, corrupt, and anti-peace, elevating adversaries as reliable negotiating partners.
• A pledge that the local governments will get their turn in Peace Talks down the road, a promise that did not materialize in at least the two cases of Vietnam and Afghanistan.

These deals usually involve or accompany a swap of prisoners against the wishes of the local government and the end of financial and military support to the same regime. While labeled peace deals, these accords did not prevent local governments’ collapse after the U.S. withdrawal and instead created power vacuums that the adversaries quickly exploited. Could Ukraine, with its sovereignty at stake, face a similar outcome?

Crossed-lateral peace deals: A pattern of excluding the most legitimate stakeholders of peace

These usually bilateral deals can better be termed crossed-lateral peace agreements as they are negotiated and concluded in the absence and defiance of the most legitimate stakeholder. For example, the Paris Peace Accord in 1973 was primarily between the U.S. and North Vietnam, with the South Vietnamese government largely excluded from direct talks. The Nixon administration justified this exclusion under the belief that South Vietnam was the primary obstacle to peace and that bypassing the South Vietnamese government would expedite a resolution. The administration pledged that they would ensure that an intra-Vietnam peace talk would take place. However, the exclusion of South Vietnam from the main accord ultimately contributed to the fall of Saigon in 1975, as the North Vietnamese took control after the U.S. withdrawal.

In Afghanistan, the Doha Peace Agreement in 2020 followed a similar pattern. The U.S. negotiated directly with the Taliban, sidelining the Afghan government in peace talks. The agreement promised a U.S. troop withdrawal in exchange for the Taliban’s commitment to preventing terrorism from Afghan soil. While it was framed as a path to peace, the Afghan government, led by President Ashraf Ghani, was not involved at all. The resulting agreement failed to prevent the collapse of the Afghan government, which fell to the Taliban in 2021, just months after the U.S. withdrawal.

One of the striking aspects of both the Paris Peace Accords and the Doha Peace Agreement was the protest and outright rejection of the peace deals by the local governments of South Vietnam and Afghanistan. South Vietnamese President Nguyễn Văn Thiệu rejected the Paris Peace Accords, feeling that the agreement compromised his government’s position and led to an unfavorable peace. Similarly, in Afghanistan, President Ashraf Ghani was deeply critical of the Doha Peace Agreement for excluding his government and undermining the legitimacy of the Afghan leadership. These protests highlighted how the local governments felt abandoned by the U.S. and viewed the negotiations as leading to unjust compromises that did not consider their legitimate needs. In both cases, U.S. officials accused the local governments of corruption, divisiveness, and incompetence to justify their direct negotiation with the enemy. Sounds familiar?

As the U.S. seeks to negotiate with Russia over Ukraine, it is crucial to note the dangers of accusing the Ukrainian government of incompetence or corruption and bypassing its authority. These accusations further elevate the adversaries’ assertions that the local governments lacked legitimacy from the outset. In both the Vietnam and Afghanistan cases, the local governments were left vulnerable, delegitimized, and unsupported before the onslaught of adversaries who could not care less about the peace deals. Interestingly, after the collapse of the allied power, the administrations blamed the opposition party at home and the sidelined government abroad, absolving themselves of any wrongdoing.

Is Ukraine the next episode in the same drama?

The U.S. and Russia have already begun rounds of talks, with the Ukrainian government sidelined. This dynamic bears some resemblance to the earlier peace talks with North Vietnam and the Taliban, where the U.S. preferred negotiating with adversaries in the absence of a legitimate government.

Will Ukraine be the next episode in this tragic drama? The answer lies in two factors, perhaps. First, is Ukraine psychologically and militarily prepared to continue its struggle without the United States’ support? Second, whether Europe proactively seeks to maintain its vested interest in Ukraine, which increasingly diverges from the U.S., or follows the U.S.’s lead as they did in Vietnam and Afghanistan’s cases.

Ukraine is the doorstep between Russia and Europe, and Russia’s entry—even with a warrant from the U.S.—is an alarm bell to the rest of Europe. Europe was never concerned about the adverse consequences of negotiation deals in Vietnam and Afghanistan. However, they do not seem to have the same feelings toward U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine. The stability of the region is a matter of direct concern to Europe. For Europe, ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is not just a matter of geopolitical interest but crucial to European security. Their recent summit in Paris indicates that.

Other articles by this author:

Dr. Bashir Mobasher teaches at the American University (DC) Department of Sociology, New York University DC, and the American University of Afghanistan Departments of Political Science. Dr. Bashir is the current President of Afghanistan Law and Political Science Association (in Exile). He is an expert in comparative constitutional law, identity politics, and human rights. He has authored, reviewed, and supervised numerous research projects on constitutional law, electoral systems, and identity politics. His recent research projects are centered around decentralization, social justice, and orientalism. Bashir obtained his B.A. (2007) from the School of Law and Political Science at Kabul University and his LLM (2010) and PhD (2017) from the University of Washington School of Law.

This article was issued by the Toda Peace Institute and is being republished from the original with their permission.

By Anis Chowdhury and Khalid Saifullah
SYDNEY, Mar 10 2025 – Speaking at the recent annual conference of the Bangladesh Administrative Service Association, Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus has emphasised the need to create opportunities for young people, asserting that Bangladesh’s large population is not a burden but a valuable resource.

A day later, Deputy Commissioners (DCs) proposed the introduction of universal military training for youths, aiming to involve them in the country’s defence efforts.

Of course, this is a political decision, and it requires serious examinations of the proposed programme’s budgetary implications.

We have done some preliminary budget estimates. The good news is that we can introduce the programme progressively over 5-8 years, say beginning with 10% of those turning 18 years as a pilot and then gradually cover the entire cohort of 18-20 years old who are able to serve.

The context – seismic demographic shift

In 50 years since independence, Bangladesh’s population more than doubled from around 70 million (7 crore) to around 174 million (17 crore), turning Bangladesh as one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Despite a rapid fall in fertility, Bangladesh’s population will continue to grow largely due to the momentum effect. UN Population Division projects that Bangladesh’s total population will reach its peak in 2071 with a population of 226 million.

Bangladesh is well into the third phase of demographic transition, having shifted from a high mortality-high fertility regime to a low mortality-low fertility one. As shown in the population pyramid (Figure 1), there is a youth bulge comprising about 28% of the population in the age bracket 15-29.

Figure 1: Bangladesh’s population by age (2024)

Source: UN-DESA, https://www.populationpyramid.net/bangladesh/2024/

The UN projects that by 2030, the proportion of youth in the age bracket 15-29 years will decline to around 25% and by 2050 to around 20%. So, this is our demographic moment that comes only once (see Figure 2).

Source: UN-ESCAP, https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/data/BGD

As Professor Yunus stressed, young population is a blessing – a source of strength, energy and vigour. A country with a large number of young people not only has a large pool of work force, but also a large pool of potential future leaders – often referred to as “demographic dividend”.

However, demographic dividend is not prearranged. It is an opportunity provided by the age structural transition. This window of opportunity opens for a population only once. If missed, it may become a “demographic curse”.

A country can “become old before becoming developed” – as we see in the case of Sri Lanka- characterised by a large proportion of elderly population (non-working age) while the nation still struggles with poverty and infrastructure issues. Thus, the country not only has fewer working-age people (i.e., a smaller work force), but also has to support a large number of people in their older age. Such a demographic situation potentially hinders a country’s economic progress and creates challenges for its social welfare systems.

Thus, an increase in the proportion of young people in a country’s population structure can bring a huge dividend provided this raw power is converted into highly skilled human resources, absorbed in productive employment and turned into entrepreneurs.

This can be shown by decomposing the neo-classical production function as follows:
Y/P = Y/SE x SE/E x E/LF x LF/WP x WP/P, where Y = GDP, P = population, E = employment, SE = skilled employment, LF = labour force, WP = working-age population.

Thus, GDP per capita (Y/P) is the product of:

a) productivity gains due to skilled employment (Y/SE),
b) proportion of skilled employment (SE/E),
c) employment rate (E/LF),
d) labour force participation rate (LF/WP) and
e) demography, i.e., proportion of working age population (WP/P).

Bangladesh’s demographic dividend may become a mirage. The recent student/youth unrest which began with a demand for quota reform and ultimately toppled the Hasina regime is a clear indication of the economy’s inability to absorb these youthful people in productive employment or turn them into entrepreneurs. The official unemployment figure of about 3-4% based on outdated labour force survey methodology does not reflect the reality.

National service – a feasible urgent solution

Our most critical challenge is preventing demographic curse and reaping demographic dividend. Mandatory national service, comprising some basic defence training, IT and general literacy-numeracy and vocational skills, will not only bring enormous economic benefits, but also prepare the country for disaster management, especially due to climate crisis. It will also act as an effective deterrent against possible threat to our national sovereignty.

Currently, we have around 1.6 crore (15.9 million) youths in the age bracket 20-24 – roughly 87 lakh females and 73 lakh males. Of the youth turning 18 years, about 29 lakh are able to serve, excluding child-bearing females (around 25%) and those with various disabilities.

If 10% of the youth turning 18 years are included in the programme in the first year, and Tk 12,000 per month (equivalent to the current minimum wage) is used for each participant, then 5.8% of the total 2024-25 budget proposed by the fallen regime would been required for defence. This is marginally higher than 5.3% allocated in the proposed 2024-25 budget. This figure rises to 5.9% and 6.2% if training each participant requires Tk15,000 and Tk20,000, respectively.

The above rough and ready estimates assume no change in the exiting allocation for other defence expenses. Nor does the exercise consider efficiency gains.

Obviously, budgeting cannot be done in isolation. The first place to find money is reallocation as required by reprioritisation. It should be mentioned here that the fallen regime in its last budget proposed for 2024-25 in June 2024, increased defence budget by 11% over the revised defence budget for 2023–24. Therefore, this has to be examined seriously; the priorities of the ‘new Bangladesh’ cannot be the same as the fallen regime’s.

Money can also come from the savings that might result in other sectors, e.g., education as there will be reduced pressure to expand post- secondary education. If necessary, the costs of such programmes have to be shared through higher taxes for the sake of securing a prosperous future of this country.

Empowering the youth

Training and skill development through mandatory national service is just one element in the supply side of the equation. The pool of available talent needs to be empowered and deployed to yield demographic dividend. Otherwise, it will be wasted and may even turn into a disruptive force.

Our most critical challenge is preventing demographic curse. Not only we have to reap demographic dividend, but also ensure what is referred to in the literature as ‘second demographic dividend’. While the ‘first demographic dividend’ due to the rise in the proportion of working-age population is transitory, the ‘second demographic dividend’ can be perpetual.

For this to happen countries need to invest in skill upgrading, support entrepreneurial initiatives and innovative/flexible work environment to allow working even in older age and asset accumulation by workers.

Especially, given the advancement in technology, and particularly Artificial Intelligence (AI), we urgently need to rethink skill development for our youth. Many university degrees may soon become obsolete because the skills they offer are prone to automation.

Ironically, many blue-collar, hands-on jobs are likely to survive because they require mental and motor skills humans have developed over millennia and are really difficult to automate. We consider them low-skill because we take those skills for granted. On the other hand, jobs which require high-level critical thinking will also survive. We need urgent actions to prevent our youth from falling into the “middle”.

Act now

Professor Yunus has rightly understood the key message of youth revolt that the youth should be placed at the heart of strategies as they are committed to creating a new world which is inclusive, fair and just. Therefore, it is logical that his government initiates the measures when the aspirations of the revolution are still fresh in the minds.

Anis Chowdhury, Emeritus Professor, Western Sydney University (Australia); held senior UN positions at Bangkok & New York in economic & social affairs

This opinion editorial was first published in New Age (24 Feb. 2025), Dhaka, Bangladesh

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