By IPS Reporters and Guy Dinmore
MANDALAY, YANGON, LONDON, Apr 11 2025 – Two weeks after a devastating earthquake hit central Myanmar, the military junta is directing flows of international aid to urban centres it controls while bombing civilians in areas held by resistance forces, breaking a ceasefire.

With the confirmed death toll from the March 28 quake approaching 4,000 people, foreign aid efforts are picking up, led by regime ally China and joined by other neighbouring countries, including India, Bangladesh and Thailand, as well as major relief agencies and the European Commission.

But the extent of the disaster, affecting an estimated two million people, has revealed the junta’s limits of resources and manpower after four years of civil war and with state structures around health and education severely weakened by the non-violent Civil Disobedience Movement.

“We have not received any assistance from the authorities. Assistance is almost non-existent. The authorities’ capability for rescue is very limited. Rescue groups reached affected communities very late, and so we’re seeing more losses than should have happened,” said Ko Soe, whose two-storey house in Myit Thar town in Mandalay Region is no longer habitable.

The ruins of a residential building in Pyinmana Township near the capital Nay Pyi Taw. Credit: IPS

“We’re hit with a huge financial burden because we cannot afford the money to repair our house. It hurts me to see other people who have lost their loved ones and their houses, and I feel guilty not being able to help,” he told IPS.

He and other survivors have accused the regime of not allowing healthcare workers who quit the state sector in protest against the 2021 coup to treat the injured. Private clinics and hospitals staffed by former state doctors and nurses had been shut down before the quake and are not allowed to reopen.

Prices of food, fuel and other essentials are rising, and people fear crime and looting. “With all these challenges, the military is also conscripting people against their will,” Ko Soe said.

In many areas the relief effort is driven by local individuals and charities, helped by donations and also money sent by the parallel National Unity Government (NUG), which was set up by lawmakers ousted in the coup and partly operates from outside Myanmar.

Destroyed bridges, roads, power supplies and telecommunications have already hampered relief efforts and the junta is exercising what controls it can.

Deputy military chief Soe Win declared on April 5 that aid organisations were not allowed to operate independently and required the regime’s authorisation. Many have been forced to abandon their missions. Unknown numbers of volunteers have been arrested, and some conscripted.

By April 6, with no hope of digging out more survivors, foreign search and rescue teams were leaving, including those from Singapore, Malaysia and India. Some donated equipment to the Myanmar fire service. Red Cross societies in various countries, including the UK, are mostly working through the Myanmar Red Cross, which is effectively a wing of the junta.

The regime’s State Administration Council, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has prioritised relief and aid efforts in Nay Pyi Taw, the military stronghold and showcase city declared the capital in 2005, and Mandalay, the country’s second largest city, as well as Buddhist temples and monasteries.

Soldiers clear rubble from Mahamuni Buddha Temple, a symbol of Mandalay. Credit: IPS

“I lost my aunt and four-year-old niece when their house collapsed. Only one wall is left standing. Our town has many ancient buildings and many collapsed in the quake,” said Thin Thin from Yamethin town in Mandalay Region.

“The government [junta] is not offering us any help. Only people around the neighbourhood are assisting in clearing the debris. Everything we need to rebuild the house is now so expensive. What we need is cash assistance,” she told IPS.

David Gum Awng, deputy minister of international cooperation for the NUG, which is trying to coordinate relief efforts where possible, said the regime was restricting access to areas beyond the junta’s control, particularly in Sagaing Region, the epicentre of the 7.7 magnitude quake and where conflict has been acute for several years. Regime air strikes have continued there.

He told IPS that the NUG was collaborating with UN agencies and international relief groups to help expand their reach by providing safety, clearing routes and sharing information.

“The prospects for peace are in limbo as the junta hasn’t exhibited any sign or willingness for a lasting and positive peace,” he said.

“SAC [junta] troops are still engaged in active combat and offensives and drone attacks, making the relief efforts even more difficult,” he said. “If the junta is serious about sustainable peace, they can easily release all the political prisoners first and cease all their offensives. That would be a very good start, and it hasn’t happened yet.”

The NUG said that from March 28, when the quake struck, to April 8, the junta had carried out 92 air strikes and artillery attacks, killing 72 civilians, including 30 women and six children. Sagaing and Mandalay regions were most targeted.

The junta declared a conditional three-week ceasefire under international pressure on April 2, which it immediately broke, and has accused various ethnic armed groups and People’s Defence Forces of breaking their own ceasefire declarations. In remote western Chin State, an alliance of ethnic armed forces this week captured the military stronghold of Falam after a five-month siege, while there are reports the junta might wrest back control of Lashio, a key town in Shan State.

With the military stretched on multiple fronts and weakened by defections and casualties, the army has had little scope or appetite for quake relief.

“The far better-resourced army has, for the most part, only deployed small bands of soldiers to protect high-profile buildings, escort visiting generals and clear up debris at major Buddhist sites. Mandalay locals say the soldiers have failed to prevent looting in the city,” Frontier Myanmar, an independent media outlet, reported.

In the midst of war and post-quake chaos, the regime – which holds the main cities but only about one third of the territory – reiterated its intention to hold elections in four weeks spanning late 2025 and early 2026. A deadline of May 9 was set for the formation of new political parties. Many parties, including the National League for Democracy (NLD), which won the 2020 elections annulled by the military, have been outlawed already and are sure to boycott the polls. NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains in prison in the capital.

Min Aung Hlaing, who has been able to make just a few foreign trips since he seized power, took time to attend a regional summit hosted by Thailand in Bangkok on April 4.

On the sidelines, the 68-year-old general met Muhammad Yunus, head of Bangladesh’s transitional government who has pressed Myanmar to start repatriating some of the 1.3 million Rohingya Muslim refugees, most forced into Bangladesh in a wave of ethnic cleansing in 2017.

That same day, the Bangladesh government’s press office said Myanmar had confirmed that 180,000 Rohingya refugees were eligible to return.

The repatriation process has been stalled for years. Many refugees refuse to return as long as they are denied citizenship and other rights. In the meantime, the Myanmar regime has lost control over much of the border state of Rakhine to the mainly Buddhist nationalist Arakan Army, throwing into doubt the viability of any large-scale repatriation operation.

“While the people of Myanmar mourn the dead, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is enjoying a bit of diplomatic sunshine,” commented Frontier Myanmar in an editorial, noting his first trip to a Southeast Asian country since early 2021 and his handshakes in Bangkok with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and India’s Narendra Modi.

Junta-controlled media have highlighted the 20 or so countries sending aid to Myanmar, particularly how Min Aung Hlaing met Elliott Tenpenny, a US doctor running a field hospital in Zabuthiri Township near the capital for the International Disaster Response Unit of Samaritan’s Purse, a US evangelical Christian charity.

Min Aung Hlaing was quoted as thanking the US government and the American people for their help. No mention was made of US sanctions on his regime.

The Trump administration said it had allocated an initial $3m only for Myanmar quake relief. Reuters news agency reported that a three-person USAID team was notified while on the ground that they had been sacked under the administration’s dismantling of its official aid network.

The European Union has responded with 13 million euros of aid and called on “all parties” to grant unimpeded access. It said it had 12 European experts and two EU Liaison Officers on the ground to coordinate with “humanitarian partners”.

OCHA, the UN coordinating agency, estimates the quake added 2.0 million people to the 4.3 million in that central area already in need of humanitarian assistance. The agency estimated funding requirements of $375 million.

The NUG says it has supplied cash assistance of 1.6 billion kyat (about US$760,000 at the open market rate) to five quake-hit areas: Sagaing, Mandalay and Bago regions, southern Shan state and Nay Pyi Taw.

Even before the quake, the UN estimated that a total of nearly 20 million people in Myanmar were in need of humanitarian assistance and that 3.5 million were internally displaced by conflict.

International Crisis Group analyst Richard Horsey estimated that reconstruction costs will run into “tens of billions of dollars” – sums that impoverished and war-torn Myanmar can only dream of.

IPS UN Bureau Report,

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By Michele LeVoy
BRUSSELS, Belgium, Apr 11 2025 – Europe must understand that the only reasonable and humane way to tackle migrant smuggling is to open regular routes for people to reach Europe in safety and dignity.

Europe’s approach to migrant ‘smuggling’ is harmful and absurd.

Instead of tackling the lack of regular pathways, thereby forcing people to embark in dangerous migration journeys, European countries are targeting migrants, human rights defenders, journalists, lawyers and ordinary citizens — all while injecting billions into the border surveillance industry.

People rely on smuggling because there are no better ways to get to Europe. But cracking down on alleged ‘smugglers’ – often migrants themselves – does not create better options. On the contrary, it pushes more people onto ever more dangerous routes, while threatening those who help them — and the EU’s new Facilitation Directive is likely to make things worse.

Criminalising solidarity

Proposed by the European Commission at the end of 2023, this Directive is meant to update previous rules to counter migrant smuggling (the 2002 Facilitators Package). However, in reality, it follows the same old broken pattern.

The current text, largely validated by the EU Council last December, expands the definition of what can be considered ‘migrant smuggling’ and ups prison sentences across the board.

The European Parliament is set to start debating its own position on the Directive this month, with a final vote expected in the summer, before entering final negotiations with the Commission and Council towards the end of the year.

What’s more, the text fails to clearly protect solidarity with people in an irregular situation from criminalisation. There is no ‘humanitarian clause’ included among the legally binding provisions; member states are simply invited not to criminalise acts of solidarity.

This generates significant legal uncertainty, as recognised by a recent study requested by the European Commission itself. With far-right and other anti-immigration forces in power in several member states and leading in polls in others, it’s easy to see how such a failure leaves the door wide open to the criminalisation and harassment of family members, NGOs, human rights defenders and ordinary citizens who are helping people in need.

This is not a fantasy scenario. At PICUM we have been documenting a steady increase in the criminalisation of solidarity with migrants in recent years. Between January 2021 and March 2022, at least 89 people were criminalised, in 2022 at least 102 and in 2023 at least 117.

Migrants themselves are also increasingly being prosecuted for simply helping fellow travellers through routes made irregular and dangerous by repressive policies.

These figures are most likely an undercount. Statistical and official data on those accused, charged or convicted of smuggling and related offences are often lacking. Many cases go unreported by the media or because people, especially migrants themselves, fear retaliation.

Behind these numbers are people who have saved lives at sea, given a lift or provided shelter, food, water or clothes. In Latvia, two citizens were charged with facilitating irregular entry simply for giving food and water to migrants stranded at the border with Belarus.

In Poland, five people are facing up to five years in prison for providing humanitarian aid to people stranded at the border with Belarus.

Just a few weeks ago, Italian judges in Crotone acquitted Maysoon Majidi, a Kurdish-Iranian activist and filmmaker, who was arrested in 2023 on human trafficking charges following a landing of migrants in Calabria. Majidi faced a sentence of two years and four months in prison.

The prosecutor in Crotone had accused her of being ‘the captain’s assistant’ because, based on the unverified testimonies of two people on board, she distributed water and food on the vessel. The ‘witnesses’ later retracted their statements, but Majidi still spent 300 days in pre-trial detention.

In Greece, an Egyptian fisherman and his 15-year-old child were charged with smuggling, simply because the father reluctantly agreed to pilot their boat in order to afford the journey. The father was placed in pre-trial detention and sentenced to 280 years in prison. Not only has the child been separated from his father, but he is now facing the same charges in a juvenile court.

Who benefits?

Counter-smuggling policies clearly fail to make migration safer. As migration expert Hein De Haas has written: ‘It is the border controls that have forced migrants to take more dangerous routes and that have made them more and more dependent on smugglers to cross borders.

Smuggling is a reaction to border controls rather than a cause of migration in itself.’ So, who actually benefits from these policies — besides politicians chasing short-term electoral gains?

Between 2021 and 2027, the EU’s budget dedicated to the management of borders, visa and customs controls increased by 135 per cent compared to the previous programming period, from €2.8 billion to €6.5 billion.

Europe must understand that the only reasonable and humane way to tackle migrant smuggling is to open regular routes for people to reach Europe in safety and dignity.

Much of this budget increase is driven by private corporations, including major defence companies such as Airbus, Thales, Leonardo and Indra, which have a vested economic interest in border surveillance.

According to research by the foundation porCausa, the Spanish government awarded over €660 million for the control of Spain’s southern border between 2014 and 2019. Most of this money went to 10 large corporations, mainly for border surveillance (€551 million), detention and deportation (€97.8 millions).

In the negotiation phase of the Facilitation Directive, the Council has already adopted a position that would leave the door open to the criminalisation of migrants and the provision of humanitarian aid.

The European Parliament still has the opportunity to adopt an ambitious mandate. MEPs should understand what is at stake if a binding clause to protect migrants and solidarity from criminalisation is not introduced.

Beyond this Directive, Europe must understand that the only reasonable and humane way to tackle migrant smuggling is to open regular routes for people to reach Europe in safety and dignity.

Michele LeVoy is Director, Platform for International Cooperation on Undocumented Migrants (PICUM), a network of organizations working to ensure social justice and human rights for undocumented migrants.

Source: International Politics and Society (IPS), Brussels.

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By Inés M. Pousadela
MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, Apr 11 2025 – In the heart of Istanbul, a remarkable transformation is underway. What began as student protests following the politically motivated arrest of Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has evolved into Turkey’s most significant pro-democracy mobilisation in years. The streets that once pulsed with the routine of daily life now throb with the energy of millions demanding a return to democratic governance.

The timing of İmamoğlu’s arrest – just a couple of weeks after he announced his presidential candidacy – betrayed the political calculation behind it. It was the latest effort by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to use judicial means to eliminate potential challengers. But this time, the response caught him off guard.

Generation Z is the vanguard of this movement. Young people who’ve known only Erdoğan’s increasingly authoritarian rule are now at the forefront of resistance. Their rallying cries – ‘This is just the beginning’ and ‘No salvation alone’ – signal something deeper than conventional political opposition. They seek not just a change of leadership but a fundamental reconstruction of Turkey’s democratic institutions.

The government’s response has been predictable yet revealing. Unconstitutional bans on public gatherings, facial recognition surveillance, social media throttling and mass detentions are all proof the government recognises the existential threat these protests pose. The arrest of over 2,000 protesters, including journalists, and the jailing of hundreds pending trial show the lengths to which Erdoğan will go to maintain his grip on power.

Turkey’s democratic decline under Erdoğan offers a textbook case of how democracies die. The early years of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule showed promise, with reforms that aligned with European Union (EU) accession requirements. But following the AKP’s third election victory in 2011, the mask began to slip.

The 2013 Gezi Park protests against urban development marked a turning point when the government’s harsh response revealed its growing intolerance of dissent. Following a failed coup attempt in 2016, Erdoğan seized the opportunity to declare a state of emergency, purging perceived opponents across state institutions. More than 150,000 civil servants, academics, judges and military personnel were suspended or dismissed, while over 50,000 people were arrested on terrorism charges with minimal evidence.

A constitutional referendum in 2017 transformed Turkey’s political system from parliamentary to presidential, granting Erdoğan unprecedented powers. The judiciary, once a check on executive power, became its servant. Independent media was systematically dismantled, with Turkey becoming one of the world’s leading jailers of journalists. Civil society organisations faced closure, takeovers, or constant harassment.

Throughout this backsliding, democratic states have largely looked the other way. Turkey’s strategic importance as a NATO member with the alliance’s second-largest armed forces, a key energy transit hub and a bridge between Europe and the Middle East has trumped concerns about its democratic erosion. The EU’s migration deal, which paid Turkey billions to stem refugee flows to Europe, epitomised the cynical bargains Erdoğan has been able to strike.

But the impressive scale and sustained nature of these protests show that Turkish people haven’t surrendered to authoritarianism.

İmamoğlu represents a formidable challenge to Erdoğan. His 2019 victory in Istanbul demonstrated his ability to build broad coalitions across a polarised electorate. That the government ordered a rerun of the election, only for İmamoğlu to win by an even bigger margin, revealed both the regime’s desperation and the limits of its electoral manipulation.

Economic challenges strengthen the opposition’s case. An inflation crisis and currency devaluation have eroded living standards. Economic discontent, combined with restrictions on basic freedoms, create a potent catalyst for change.

Yet significant obstacles remain. The opposition still struggles with internal divisions and has yet to present a coherent alternative vision. Erdoğan controls key levers of power, including the judiciary, security apparatus and much of the media. His nationalist rhetoric and framing of opposition as foreign-backed conspirators resonate with his conservative base.

For democratic states, the current moment presents a critical choice. For too long, strategic interests have trumped democratic principles in their engagement with Turkey. This calculated indifference can no longer be justified when millions of Turkish people are risking their freedom to defend the same values democratic states claim to champion.

The courage shown by Turkish people – particularly young people experiencing their political awakening – deserves recognition and support. Their struggle offers a reminder that democracy requires constant vigilance and, when necessary, extraordinary courage to defend. The question now is whether the international community will stand with them. The answer will reveal much about the state of global democracy.

Inés M. Pousadela is CIVICUS Senior Research Specialist, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

For interviews or more information, please contact [email protected]

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By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Apr 11 2025 – As the Trump administration’s hostility towards the United Nations and other international organizations keeps growing, a New York Times columnist last week proposed what he frivolously described as “something a little incendiary”.

Maybe Trump could follow up on his non-appointment of Elise Stefanik as US Ambassador to the United Nations—who has been virulently anti-UN—by withdrawing the US from the United Nations entirely.

The UN’s 39-storeyed building, the Times columnist remarked, has “amazing views of the East River”—and said, rather sarcastically, it would be a great condo conversion– as a luxury apartment complex.

A White House Executive Order last February was titled “Withdrawing the United States from, and ending funding to certain United Nations organizations, and reviewing United States support to ALL international organizations.”

President Trump, who withdrew the US from the UN Human Rights Council, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Climate Treaty, has threatened to pull out of UNESCO and the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestine Refugees in the Near East– and also to terminate US contracts with the World Food Programme (WFP) in Rome (which was later reversed and described as “a mistake”).

And could Trump reverse his withdrawals from UN agencies –as he did with tariffs? But that seems very unlikely.

Trump’s staggering US tariffs worldwide have not only threatened the longstanding ground rules in world trade but also undermined the Geneva-based World Trade Organization (WTO), described as the only global international organization dealing with the rules of trade between nations.

Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, which is focused on trade, was quoted as saying: “I would say the WTO is toast, but what matters now is how other members respond”.

“Do they stand up for the system? Or do they also ignore key principles, provisions and practices?”

In his unpredictable on-again, off-again decision-making, Trump backed down last week on most reciprocal tariffs for a period of 90 days, citing new talks with foreign nations, explaining his reversal. But China, he said, would not be included, and he raised tariffs on its exports to 125 percent.

Perhaps after 90 days, the tariffs will be at play once again, continuing to de-stabilize world trade and the global economy.

The move leaves a universal 10 percent tariff on all other countries except Canada and Mexico, which face separate duties. But it undoes some of the original tariffs — 20 percent on the European Union, 24 percent on Japan, 46 percent on Vietnam.

China has said it will impose reciprocal tariffs on all imports from the United States, escalating a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Mandeep S. Tiwana, Interim Co-Secretary-General CIVICUS, a global alliance of civil society organizations (CSOs), told IPS: “We are entering a dangerous age of values-free transactional diplomacy which is leading to the breakdown of the rules based international order”.

A lot of it, he pointed out, has to do with the rise of authoritarianism and populism over the past few years which has elevated political leaders who spread disinformation and rule by personality cult rather than established norms.

“Civil society and the independent media serve as important checks on the exercise of arbitrary power in the public interest but are being attacked in unprecedented ways,” he declared.

Sadly, humanity has been here before in the period prior to the start of the first and second world wars in the twentieth century, which caused immeasurable death and destruction.

Autocratic and populist regimes, he said, are deliberately undermining international norms that seek to create peaceful, just, equal and sustainable societies.

Notably, civil society organising and citizen action offer the last line of defence against the relentless assault on cherished ideals enshrined in constitutional and international law,” said Tiwana.

Asked if the rash of tariffs would lead to a global economic recession, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told reporters April 8: “I’ve been clarifying my position about this issue time and time again. Trade wars are extremely negative. Nobody wins with a trade war. Everybody tends to lose”.

“And I’m particularly worried with the most vulnerable developing countries, in which the impact will be more devastating. I sincerely hope that we will have no recession, because a recession will have dramatic consequences, especially for the poorest people in the world,” he warned.

Dr Jim Jennings, president of Conscience International and Executive Director of US Academics for Peace, told IPS the widespread “Hands Off” protests in the US threaten to return the country to the decades of debate over tariffs that took place during the 19th Century. The issue then, as now, was protectionism—believed to enrich the manufacturing class.

Whereas the Whigs (today’s Republicans) wanted high tariffs, the idea of free trade as a way to reach prosperity was the mantra of the Democrats, who favored the working class.

President Lincoln favored tariffs, but by 1860 admitted that arguing for a protective tariff was unwise for political reasons—few people at that time favored it. Most Americans had come to realize that high tariffs were protecting the moneyed class and simply raise taxes for everybody. Lincoln knew he was unlikely to be elected President if tariffs were the key to his campaign.

Today’s bewildering day in-day out bluffs and threats by Mr. Trump means that the market will continue to bounce around. “Wall Street likes certainty, but the only certainty we can see is that the US economy is in the hands of amateurs”.

“While the idea of comparing our globalized economy to that of 1840-60 is problematic, with the world already teetering on the verge of WW III, a Trade War is the last thing we need,” declared Dr Jennings.

Andreas Bummel, Executive Director, Democracy Without Borders, told IPS “from the standpoint of democratic checks and balances, it is concerning that the US President apparently can unleash a trade war with most of the world’s countries while the US Congress simply looks on.”

But according to an Associated Press (AP) report April 9, the State Department has rolled back an undisclosed number of sweeping funding cuts to U.N. World Food Program emergency projects in 14 impoverished countries, saying it had terminated some of the contracts for life-saving aid “by mistake”.

“There were a few programs that were cut in other countries that were not meant to be cut, that have been rolled back and put into place,” State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters.

Meanwhile, China has said it will retaliate by imposing reciprocal tariffs on all imports from the United States. “This practice of the U.S. is not in line with international trade rules, undermines China’s legitimate rights and interests, and is a typical unilateral bullying practice,” China’s finance ministry said in a statement.

China has also filed a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization, saying the U.S. tariffs were “a typical unilateral bullying practice that endangers the stability of the global economic and trade order.”

Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO, said the Secretariat is closely monitoring and analysing the measures announced by the United States on April 2, 2025.

“Many members have reached out to us and we are actively engaging with them in response to their questions about the potential impact on their economies and the global trading system.”

The recent announcements, he pointed out, will have substantial implications for global trade and economic growth prospects.

“While the situation is rapidly evolving, our initial estimates suggest that these measures, coupled with those introduced since the beginning of the year, could lead to an overall contraction of around 1% in global merchandise trade volumes this year, representing a downward revision of nearly four percentage points from previous projections”

“I am deeply concerned about this decline and the potential for escalation into a tariff war with a cycle of retaliatory measures that lead to further declines in trade.”

It is important to remember that, despite these new measures, the vast majority of global trade still flows under the WTO’s Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) terms.

“Our estimates now indicate that this share currently stands at 74%, down from around 80% at the beginning of the year. WTO members must stand together to safeguard these gains.”

Trade measures of this magnitude have the potential to create significant trade diversion effects. “I call on Members to manage the resulting pressures responsibly to prevent trade tensions from proliferating,” said Dr Okonjo-Iweala.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Apr 11 2025 – Since the breakdown of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, the Gaza Strip has been subjected to significant bombardment and blockages of humanitarian aid. With aid deliveries having been halted from entering the Gaza Strip for over one month, roughly two million Palestinians have been relying on dwindling resources, facing heightened risks of malnutrition and disease.

On April 10, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed a letter from over 1,000 current and retired Israeli Air Force reservists that called for an end to the war. Describing the extended warfare as “marginal and extremist”, the soldiers urged Israeli authorities to prioritize the retrieval of Israeli hostages rather than continuing hostilities.

“As has been proven in the past, only a [ceasefire] deal can bring back the hostages safely, while military pressure mainly leads to the killing of the hostages and the endangerment of our soldiers. Currently, the war serves mainly political and personal interests, not security interests,” said the soldiers in the letter to Netanyahu.

In a social media statement shared to X (formerly known as Twitter), Netayahu supported the Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff in dismissing the soldiers who signed the letter. Additionally, Netanyahu rejected the statement, criticizing it for weakening the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and strengthening its enemies.

“This is an extremist fringe group that is once again trying to break Israeli society from within. They already tried to do this before October 7th, and Hamas interpreted the calls for refusal as weakness,” added Netanyahu.

On April 8, the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) released a situation update on the conditions in the Gaza Strip. According to the update, deliveries of humanitarian aid have been blocked from entering Gaza since March 2, marking the longest blockade since the start of the war in 2023.

Essential resources, such as food, shelter, medical supplies, and clean water, are dwindling at a rapid pace. The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warns that malnutrition, disease, and preventable child deaths are projected to surge as Palestinians survive on critically low rations.

“UNICEF has thousands of pallets of aid waiting to enter the Gaza Strip,” said UNICEF Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa Edouard Beigbeder. “Most of this aid is lifesaving – yet instead of saving lives, it is sitting in storage. It must be allowed in immediately. This is not a choice or charity; it is an obligation under international law.”

According to UNICEF, complementary food rations for infants has been depleted entirely in central and southern Gaza. All that remains for young children in these areas is a small supply of ready-to-use infant formula that will cover 400 children for one month. Approximately 10,000 small children under six months that require supplemental feeding will be forced to find alternatives “mixed with unsafe water”, which increases risks of malnutrition and waterborne illness.

In early April, 25 bakeries that were supported by the World Food Programme (WFP) were forced to close as a result of a depleted supply of flour and fuel. Continued orders of evacuation have resulted in the closure of 15 percent of all nutrition sites in the enclave, disrupting treatment for approximately 350 children struggling with acute malnutrition. It is estimated that nutrition screenings for children have dropped by roughly 30 percent, reaching only 58,000 children in March, marking a drop of 25,000 from February.

As a result of the breakdown of the ceasefire, humanitarian organizations have been forced to abandon work on critical water and sanitation infrastructures, with many having been left non-functional and at risk of further damage. In central and southern Gaza, desalination plants have reduced their output of clean water production by 85 percent due to power cuts. In northern Gaza, families survive on the remainder of water from trucks of previous aid deliveries.

Furthermore, the average daily allowance of drinking water for over 1 million people, including 400,000 children, has decreased from 16 litres to 6. It is estimated that if resources are depleted in the coming weeks, daily water consumption per person could drop below 4 liters.

Due to renewed hostilities and evacuation orders, UNICEF has been forced to scale back services in mental health, psychosocial support, mine awareness education, and child protection. Additionally, Gaza’s healthcare system has been pushed to the brink of collapse. Medical facilities have been forced to shut down or operate at a semi-functional level due to widespread insecurity and displacement orders, endangering the lives of thousands of Palestinians in the enclave.

According to a press release from the World Health Organization (WHO), there are roughly 55,000 pregnant women in Gaza, one-third of which struggle with high-risk pregnancies. 20 percent of newborns are born prematurely, underweight, or with birth complications, and are faced with a lack of neonatal care. Additionally, essential medical resources, such as blood units, anesthesia, ultrasound machines, oxygen pumps, incubators, ventilators, medications, and vaccines are in extremely short supply.

Additionally, thousands of Palestinians are endangered by bombardments, artillery shellings, and unexploded ordnance in the Gaza Strip. According to estimates from Polish Humanitarian Action (PAH), roughly 1,400 Palestinians have been killed and 3,500 were injured in Gaza since the deterioration of the ceasefire. In April, there have been numerous reports of attacks on schools, hospitals, and civilian shelters, which constitute violations of international humanitarian law.

PAH estimates that over 2 million people in Gaza are currently in danger due to hostilities from the IDF. In the last three weeks alone, over 400,000 people have been forcibly displaced. Roughly 65 percent of the Gaza Strip is subject to evacuation orders from the IDF.

“As aid has dried up, the floodgates of horror have reopened. Gaza is a killing field – and civilians are in an endless death loop,” said United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres. “With crossing points into Gaza shut and aid blockaded, security is in shambles and our capacity to deliver has been strangled…It is time to end the dehumanization, protect civilians, release the hostages, ensure life saving aid, and renew the ceasefire”.

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By Joyce Chimbi
NAIROBI, Apr 11 2025 – More than 13,600 participants from around the world registered for the inaugural CGIAR Science Week at the UN Complex, Nairobi, April 7-12, 2025. Dr. Ismahane Elouafi, the organization’s Executive Managing Director, said, “This is a testament that people are thirsty for science and for good news.”

“They are thirsty for hope, and that’s what science brings. And that’s also what CGIAR brings. We bring solutions to the country level and the community where science could really thrive.”

Through a video message, Amina J. Mohammed, the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations and Chair of the United Nations Sustainable Development Group, said the science conference has come just a few months ahead of the 2nd United Nations Food Systems Summit Stocktake (UNFSS+4) to be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

“We will have the chance to reflect on the progress we’ve made and, more importantly, chart the way forward. Progress on the SDGs requires accelerating the transition to sustainable food systems. Partnerships are essential in accelerating progress, bringing together diverse expertise to drive science-based solutions,” she observed.

Stressing that by aligning research with policy and action and working with partners like CGIAR and the high-level panel of experts on the Committee on the Role of Food Security, “We are building food systems that are resilient, sustainable, and inclusive, ensuring lasting impact in the face of climate change and global hunger.

“Yet we must also remain mindful of the challenges we face, such as geopolitical tensions, the impacts of climate change, economic uncertainty, and the urgent need for a reformed international financial architecture that supports these efforts.”

Reflecting on the past five days, Dr. Eliud Kiplimo Kireger, Director General and Chief Executive Officer of the Kenya Agriculture and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO), the conference co-host, said the past week provided a critical platform for dialogue, collaboration, and innovation, bringing together global leaders, researchers, and partners to address the pressing challenges of food security.

Observing that the discussions underscored the role of science, technology, and partnerships in transforming food systems for a more sustainable and equitable future. Stressing that the event has “uniquely convened agriculture, climate, and health stakeholders to address interconnected challenges threatening food security and sustainability. By integrating these domains, we have moved beyond cycle approaches to systemic solutions.”

Further emphasizing that the Science Week showcased transformative tools from AI-driven architectural decision-making to climate-smart groundbreaking technologies that are ready for scaling and that “these innovations provide actionable pathways to resilience… the next step is prioritization of localized adaptations of proven technologies, particularly for smallholder farmers.”

Juergen Voegele, Vice President, World Bank/Chair of the CGIAR System Council, told participants that as populations continue to grow, the need for CGIAR’s role is stronger than ever as increasingly severe weather events make food production more and more risky. And growing conflict around the world makes more and more people food insecure.

“And changing trade policies, as we see in the last few days, will affect hundreds of millions of people. At the same time, we see a decline in public spending for the needs of poor countries broadly. That also means competition for scarce research dollars is much fiercer now. For us as a CGIAR system, it becomes ever more critical to have a compelling narrative.”

Voegele said investing in agricultural research has the highest return on the dollar and is a key part of the solution to a changing climate, migration, and conflict and that “we do need to tell a story about how many lives drought-resistant wheat varieties save or flood-tolerant rice or nutrition-dense crops. It is impact and scale that matter and will be the most convincing in lower capitals.

“And we must ask ourselves some fundamental questions. For starters, is our new research portfolio still 100 percent relevant or do we need to prioritize even more for impact?”

Dr. Rachel Chikwamba, Group Executive for Advanced Chemistry and Life Sciences at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), affirmed that CGIAR is uniquely positioned to serve and complement ongoing initiatives through its extensive network of partnerships, and it remains a leader in fostering collaborative efforts to address these seemingly intractable global challenges.

“They have done it for the past 50 years in a shifting environment, and they continue to do this so very proudly, as we have witnessed this past week. For the youth that are in the room, I hope you have been inspired, and I do hope you take up careers in science and technology; in particular, I hope you take up careers in agriculture,” she said.

“You have seen what is possible, you have seen the role of technology therein, and you have seen its potential to transform not just our lives, but indeed how we engage the youth and how the youth can take charge of our common destiny.”

No matter how complex the issues in the agrifood systems, the world must listen to what the scientists are saying, and they are saying that the solutions are in science, innovation, inclusion, and partnerships and that no one should be left behind.

CGIAR works with more than 3000 partners in nearly 90 countries around the world to advance the transformation of food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis. Regional director generals from these partners supported the urgent calls for innovation, collaboration, and partnership.

The organization’s research centers include the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), The International Potato Center (CIP), AfricaRice, and The International Water Management Institute (IWMI).

In his closing remarks, Kenya’s Principal secretary state department for Agriculture, Dr. Paul Kiprono Ronoh, made an impassioned plea for youth to make a case for themselves and their involvement in resolving challenges in the agrifood systems. Further emphasizing that the time when decisions were made on behalf of farmers is long gone and that farmers must be at the table and at the center of developing and implementing innovative solutions.

“A crisis like this is an opportunity to find better solutions,” he said. “together we can transform science systems through science. Let us leave here inspired but also resolute in our commitment to using science, thus creating a future that is sustainable for generations to come. Kenya remains committed to being a leader in agricultural transformation and looks forward to working with all of you.”

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By Joyce Chimbi
NAIROBI, Apr 10 2025 – As agrifood systems in the Global South buckle under the weight of climate change, biodiversity, and even pollution, experts such as Dr. Himanshu Pathak call for urgent innovative solutions, as, at the current pace, the problems of the Global South are going to intensify with escalating climate change.

Pathak is the director general of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), a global research institute focused on dryland agriculture. He has over 32 years of experience in climate resilience, soil and crop management, and sustainable agricultural systems.

Speaking to IPS at the CGIAR Science Week, he shared his insights into the deepening rural poverty and hunger across the Global South and what it would take to build agricultural resilience and sustainability.

“Changing climate, increasing temperature, and increasing pollution are going to intensify the problem of degradation of its land, water, and air. To solve these problems, we strongly believe that new science and new technology will be very useful to address those challenges. New science means developing new varieties that are resistant or tolerant to climatic changes,” he said.

“Varieties that are high yielding and at the same time better in nutrient content, which will help in promoting soil fertility, will not degrade the soil. Once we develop these varieties and new technologies, we have to reach these technologies to the farmers through a conducive policy environment.”

ICRISAT is on the frontlines of developing much-needed solutions through its regional stations in eight different countries in Africa and, in all, working with about 80 countries on different aspects of their research activities, such as on amended crops like millets, sorghum, pulses, pigeon peas, chickpeas, and oilseed-rich groundnuts.

“We do crop improvement, how to increase yield by developing new varieties, and how to improve nutrient content by developing bio-fortified varieties. We also work on how to manage soil, water, nutrients, fertilizer, and, of course, climate action, and we are actively engaged in social sciences, capacity building, education, training, and teaching.”

On why farmers do not always adopt new science and technologies, Pathak said they find it difficult to do so “without good policy and support and without good incentives. And there is also a great need for capacity building and skill development of  farmers, as today’s technologies are quite knowledge intensive.”

Emphasizing that farmers need to improve their skills and knowledge to “understand and adopt these new technologies, new varieties, new water management, and so on. And to achieve all of these things, there is a need for partnership. Partnership among research organizations, partnership among farmers, donors, and policymakers.”

For sustainable changes, he spoke of an urgent need to involve women farmers, as gender equality is a central part of the solution, as is youth involvement. Stressing that this is a different generation of youth and that to attract and retain them in agriculture will take embracing new technologies such as digital agriculture, artificial intelligence, and precision agriculture, and equally important, agriculture has to be market-oriented.

Reiterating the critical role that science and technology play, David Guerena, a research scientist at the Alliance Biodiversity International–CIAT, spoke to IPS about the need to listen to what farmers are saying to understand their more preferred varieties and even what draws them to these varieties. This understanding can help breeders make more informed decisions towards more effective solutions that are better adapted to local settings. Stressing that AI and machine learning solutions for agriculture, specifically around breeding and breeding services, are also timely and critical and that, rather than leaving farmers behind, technology can connect farmers to research.

“It is important that we speak to farmers directly to help customize agricultural advisory services and linkages to markets. AI is also successfully interfacing with breeding teams. We have also seen how mobile money transfer models such as MPESA have done in rural ecosystems in supporting smallholder farmers to transact with ease,” he said.

Dr. Stephen Mutuvi from the Alliance Biodiversity International–CIAT and based in Arusha, Tanzania, specializes in Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Machine Learning. He leads the machine learning operations in the organization’s different projects, focusing on artificial intelligence.

He told IPS that AI is part of the solution, as “you can just record farmers as they speak, for instance, and people without literacy levels can convey their messages by just having their voices and conversations recorded.”

“And then using AI to transcribe their words automatically and applying advanced models like those similar to ChatGPT to analyze the data. So, we are at a very interesting space where the advanced technologies in AI are also getting to be useful and to be of impact to the direct users, who are the farmers in this case.”

Guerena stressed the need to find harmony between indigenous knowledge, which has sustained agriculture for thousands of years, and advanced scientific knowledge. Saying that indigenous knowledge gives a historical understanding and science is more modern and more advanced and that the two are central to developing lasting solutions.

But a lack of access to post-production remains a pain point for smallholder farmers in the Global South. Pathak says supporting farmers to access good prices for their produce is critical: “Market-friendliness, gender-friendliness, and of course nature-friendliness of agriculture will be extremely important in building agricultural resilience and sustainability.”

As is so often the case, he affirms that innovation and science are more invested in increasing yields as aspects of post-harvest, post-production, and access to markets are left unattended. He asserts that although increasing production is crucial, it is not sufficient.

“And therefore, we are working for the full agri-food system, starting from seed to produce, and then all kinds of value addition and connecting farmers with markets. So, value addition, agri-food processing, and post-harvest management of the commodities are extremely important,” Pathak said. “Onwards, along with increasing productivity by developing new varieties and new soil and water management technologies, we also have to give equal, if not more, importance to post-harvest management for agri-value addition.”

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By Busani Bafana
NAIROBI, Apr 10 2025 – Animal scientist Lindiwe Majele Sibanda became what her grandmother earnestly prayed for when she was growing up on a farm in southern Zimbabwe.

Majele Sibanda, an Extraordinary Professor at the University of Pretoria  and chair of CGIAR’s Integrated Partnership Board, is a practicing livestock farmer and a successful one at that. She is raising pedigree and indigenous cattle as well as hardy Matabele goats.

“Livestock is livelihood,” Majele Sibanda says, speaking to IPS at CGIAR Science Week, responding to the growing concerns about livestock farming as an environmental threat.

Livestock production supports more than 1.3 billion people globally in terms of food and nutrition security. Africa has an estimated 800 million livestock keepers in a sector that contributes up to 50 percent of agricultural GDP and supports the livelihoods of about 350 million people.

There is a flipside, though. The livestock sector is currently responsible for up to 20 percent of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, underlying the need for more efficient and sustainable livestock production systems.

Aspire to a ‘Protein Revolution’

“The biggest revolution we have to aspire to is the protein revolution, and the revolution will not be achieved without animal-source foods like milk, blood, and meat,” says Majele Sibanda. “We cannot achieve it with plant-based nutrition alone. I believe in livestock — but livestock that is produced sustainably.”

Livestock are both a solution and a challenge but will remain an essential part of the food system. Credit: Busani Bafana/IPS

Livestock has economic and social attributes that act as a store of value for farmers. Livestock farmers in Africa produce half of the continent’s meat and milk. Milk secures the nutritional needs of children, aiding in their development, while assorted livestock products contribute to income generation as they are traded, with meat, milk, and eggs being prominent commodities. Besides food, livestock provides non-food products like leather, wool, and pharmaceuticals.

Majele Sibanda is a champion for the International Livestock Research Institute Strategy, which is looking at sustainable livestock production systems.

In 2024, ILRI launched a new strategy, ‘Unlocking sustainable livestock’s potential through research for better lives and a better planet,’ to guide its programs in the next five years to 2030.

The strategy addresses global challenges such as climate change, food insecurity, and sustainable development. It aims to improve livestock systems in Africa and Asia through the implementation of large-scale, science-based sustainable livestock solutions that influence policy decisions and investments.

Science Drives Development

A distinguished leader and policy advocate on food systems, Majele Sibanda is convinced scientific research can enhance agriculture as a driver of development.

“With science, we can feed the world of 9.7 billion by 2050,” said Majele Sibanda, who has the privilege of being a farmer, a businessperson, and a jury member  for the Food Planet Prize, the world’s biggest prize in the sector.

“Technology on the shelf is not good enough,” she emphasized. “Technology on the ground takes drivers—it has to be conveyed. Scaling up requires policies. We talk about it as a science but let us talk about it as a multi-stakeholder agenda of moving science to the people who need it most. There can be no better base than doing it on-site together—from agenda setting to the users.”

Farmers Are Scientists, Custodians of Knowledge

But is it possible for farmers to adopt scientific innovations without abandoning the indigenous know-how of farming, which has supported them for generations?

Majele Sibanda believes so.

“Farmers are not stupid,” she retorts. “Farmers are scientists. You cannot farm without knowledge. They are custodians of knowledge and are continuously learning, whether they have gone to school for it or suckled it from their grandmother, like me and my father, who is still an active farmer or from their neighbors.”

She said farmers are continuously on a quest for new ways to improve both their land and animals.

“The beauty of science is that you have a dedicated group of persons whose core business is to generate their knowledge. That knowledge is for improving productivity in a sustainable way,” Majele Sibanda said, adding, “This rift between a farmer and a scientist does not and should not exist provided there is humility to accept that as a scientist you are learning and as a farmer you are learning. We have a common goal of sustainable production and sustainable food systems—feeding the soil, feeding the family, and feeding the pocket. We have a common goal of sustainable production and sustainable food systems.”

“If researchers understand the aspirations of farmers, they will be able to meet them halfway with the right technologies. The challenge we have had is that researchers want an easy way out at times and want to put all technologies on the shelf and do not want to invest in a local system that helps farmers adapt.”

Majele Sibanda highlights the importance of partnerships between the CGIAR and the national research systems in the provision and sharing of innovative technologies that enable farmers to adapt as well as mitigate the impacts of climate change.

“Unless we walk hand in hand, research technologies and innovations will sit on the shelf,” she said.

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By Joyce Chimbi
NAIROBI, Apr 10 2025 – “To have impact, it was crucial to understand what impact was wanted,” CGIAR’s Executive Managing Director Dr. Ismahane Elouafi said at the launch of the organization’s flagship report, Insight to Impact: A decision-maker’s guide to navigating food system science.

“The report is called Insight to Impact because the key message is that impact starts with insight. So, it is very important that we invest in science if we are to have an impact,” Elouafi said.  “But what is very important as well is to really have a proper engagement of policymakers… This report gives real examples and insights into what works and what does not work as well.”

To give a perspective on the importance of policy in relation to nutritious foods, she said that in many ways, the farmers will produce what they produce because there is a market for it and that to produce more healthy foods requires creating a market for it through policy. Policies can subsidize or incentivize farmers to produce more nutritious foods.

“And for me, this is what we have not been doing. We have not been pushing enough for policies that are pro-climate, that are pro-nutrition, and that are pro-poor as well. So, all of this is doable. And what we need to do is make sure we provide the genetic breed that we know is nutritious, but also go and talk to policymakers to get the policies to make sure it makes it to the market.”

In a world confronted by serious interconnected challenges of climate change, environmental degradation, persistent poverty, and food and nutrition insecurity, there is an urgent need for evidence-based decision-making to resolve complex issues that now transcend boundaries, demanding cohesive and science-driven solutions – and that is where the guide comes in.

“The reality is that today we are facing challenges, particularly in the last few years, that were unimaginable even five or ten years ago. The speed at which climate change is coming at us and farmers around the world, is not what anyone expected… The rate of return of investing in agricultural research is increasing by the minute, while the costs of not doing it are phenomenal,” by Jüergen Vöegele, Vice President, World Bank/Chair of the CGIAR System Council.

A Decision-Maker’s Guide To Navigating Food System Science was launched at CGIAR Science Week. Credit: Busani Bafana/IPS

While decision-makers at global, national, and local levels recognize the urgency of taking decisive action and also understand that safeguarding the resilience, health, and livelihoods of vulnerable communities, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, requires sound, science-backed policies, many also struggle to access the right information in the right format, slowing the translation of research into action.

As the world’s largest agricultural research partnership, CGIAR developed the report as part of a wider bundle of decision-making resources to meet these challenges head-on, recognizing that, although agricultural research cannot solve every problem, food system transformation must be part of the solution.

CGIAR’s global partnership of 13 world-leading research centers provides solutions to transform food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis to ensure food security in low- and middle-income countries. For over 50 years, the organization has supported decision-makers at global, regional, national, and local levels by providing timely, policy-relevant, impactful innovations, data, and expertise to ensure food security in target countries.

In this regard, the report provides science-based insights and practical recommendations to help decision-makers navigate the pressing challenges of agriculture, food security, and sustainable development while preparing for future risks. Importantly, it is a way to continually improve the accessibility and relevance of our research to decision-makers.

Grace Mijiga Mhango, president of the Grain Traders and Processors Association of Malawi, stated that one of the main barriers to using science as a transformative tool is the “gap in communication between the scientist and the private sector, including the farmer who is supposed to be the key beneficiary of the materials and innovations the scientists are coming up with.”

In the right hands, food system science and innovation can transform food systems to deliver across the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. It is the foundation that decision-makers at local, national, regional, and global levels can use to make informed decisions.

Decisions that result in food systems supporting regeneration rather than driving environmental degradation and becoming a net sink rather than a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, protecting biodiversity rather than depleting it, and providing culturally appropriate, affordable, available, diverse, and safe diets that ensure nutrition, health, and food security.

Solutions steeped in science and innovation can contribute to producer stability and resilience, supporting livelihoods and reducing poverty for smallholders and benefiting over 500 million women while also creating new opportunities for 267 million young people.

Overall, the report is designed for leaders, policymakers, and researchers; it focuses on translating science into action. The report simplifies scientific findings into practical, understandable, and relevant information with links to tools and real-world applications.

CGIAR research shows a good return on investment. For every dollar invested in CGIAR agricultural research and development, investors see USD 10 worth of benefits. With CGIAR’s annual research portfolio of just over USD 900 million and more than 9,000 staff working in over 85 countries Insight to Impact is the first in a series that will deliver plain-language roadmaps to help decision-makers tackle complex food and nutrition security and sustainability challenges.

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By Rahul Anand, Diaa Noureldin, Zexi Sun and Xin Cindy Xu
WASHINGTON DC, Apr 10 2025 – Strong economic fundamentals and sound macroeconomic policies have helped the Korean economy through multiple shocks in recent years. However, potential growth has slowed more quickly than in other major advanced economies, and the economic expansion is likely to moderate this year.

The country also is aging more rapidly than almost all others. That’s likely to reduce the labor supply and weigh on investment demand, further lowering growth and diminishing living standards.

Aging could shrink the labor force by more than a quarter by 2050, leading to an average annual decline of 0.67 percentage point in potential growth, according to our latest Article IV report.

The good news is that reforms would help address this adverse impact of aging in Korea:
Increasing labor force participation rates, especially among female and older workers, would help limit the decline in the supply of available workers.

Drawing on experiences in other advanced economies, in a typical labor market reform scenario, the participation rate for older workers is assumed to increase by 3 percentage points and the gender gap for female participation is expected to decrease by half. Such improvements would offset about one-fifth of the aging impact by 2050.

Furthermore, improving the efficiency of resource allocation across firms within sectors could increase aggregate productivity growth. This could be achieved through reforms that help channel labor and capital toward fast growing firms with higher productivity.

Such reforms include reducing barriers to opening or closing a business, enhancing access to finance, and removing distortive subsidies. In a reform scenario assuming a smaller productivity gap between the top and bottom performing firms, average annual potential growth could increase by 0.22 percentage points. That would be equal to about one-third of the aging impact.

Finally, better and broader use of artificial intelligence (AI) would help support potential growth. AI could impact the economy through three channels:

• Labor displacement, in which AI replaces people in some jobs, increasing productivity but reducing labor demand.
• Labor complementarity, where AI complements people in some roles, increasing productivity without eliminating their jobs.
• Overall productivity increase, or AI boosting productivity across all jobs, in turn raising overall labor demand.

Our new paper, published alongside the Article IV report, shows that AI adoption across all three of these channels could significantly increase average annual potential growth by as much as 0.44 percentage point.

Ultimately, the combined effects from a higher labor force participation rate, more efficient allocation of resources, and expanded AI adoption can more than fully offset the economic drag from aging.

Accelerating reforms would deliver growth gains early, earn more support from the public, help defend against potential shocks, and increase room in the government budget for adapting to an aging society.

Rahul Anand is the IMF mission chief for Korea; Diaa Noureldin is an economist in the Research Department; Zexi Sun and Xin Cindy Xu are economists in the IMF’s Asia-Pacific Department. This article is based on IMF’s 2024 country report on Korea, including a joint selected issues paper with the Bank of Korea, “Transforming the Future: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence in Korea.”

Source: IMF

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