By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, US, Feb 26 2025 – Yeah, governments are having a hissy fit over it. And their hissy fit is not over the usual concerns of governments such as defense, the economy, trade, inflation, unemployment, crime, or terrorism.

Governments are having a hissy fit over a single demographic issue. And that demographic issue is not about deaths, disease, life expectancy, urbanization, immigration, density or ageing.

Their hissy fit is simply over one thing. And that one thing is low birth rates.

Dominating the news headlines, pushing aside reality and the facts, attempting to sway public opinion and aiming to increase reproductive behavior, especially of young women, doomsday predictions about the consequences of low birth rates for humanity’s survival are being promoted.

World population now stands at a record high of 8.2 billion people and is continuing to increase, now adding approximately 70 million annually. That record high of 8.2 billion is double the world population of fifty years ago and quadruple the world population of a hundred years ago

Those erroneous predictions include that world population will collapse, humanity is headed toward near extinction, human civilization is dying out and homo sapiens will soon disappear off the face of the planet.

In actual fact, and contrary to their doomsday predictions, the world’s population is not collapsing and is expected to continue growing for at least another 60 years.

For most of human history, the growth of the world’s population was relatively slow and close to stable due to high rates of both births and deaths. The one billion world population mark wasn’t reached until 1804.

In contrast to the past, the 20th century, especially the second half, was an exceptional period of rapid world population growth. In the early 1960s, for example, world population’s annual growth rate reached a high of 2.3 percent and world population more than doubled in size during the second half of the 20th century. Moreover, the world’s population increased from 2 billion to 8 billion in slightly less than one hundred years.

World population now stands at a record high of 8.2 billion people and is continuing to increase, now adding approximately 70 million annually. That record high of 8.2 billion is double the world population of fifty years ago and quadruple the world population of a hundred years ago.

Moreover, according to international demographic projections, world population is expected to reach 9 billion by the year 2037, 10 billion by 2060 and 10.2 billion by the close of the 21st century.

So, homo sapiens are NOT expected to disappear from the face of the planet, as the doomsayers are repeatedly proclaiming.

Yes, it is certainly the case that many countries are experiencing fertility rates that are below the replacement level of about two births per woman. Those countries include both developed and developing countries across most regions of the world (Figure 1).

Source: United Nations.

As a result of sustained rates of below replacement fertility, the populations of many of those countries have peaked and are facing demographic decline and population ageing accompanied by substantial increases in the share of elderly people in their populations.

As countries wish to avoid demographic decline as well as rapid population ageing, governments are attempting to reverse their low fertility levels.

Those governments are actively promoting various pro-natalist policies, programs and incentives aimed at returning to the relatively high fertility rates of the past or at least returning to replacement level fertility rates.

Are those pronatalist policies, programs and incentives likely to be successful in raising fertility rates back to the replacement level of about two births per woman?

The simple answer to that important question is: no, not likely to be successful.

Most international population projections do not foresee a return to replacement level fertility rates for the foreseeable future. By the year 2050, for example, the current low fertility rates of countries are expected to remain well below the replacement level.

Why are the fertility rates of many countries below the replacement level? A host of societal factors and individual reasons contribute to pushing fertility rates well below the replacement level (Table 1).

Source: Author’s compilation.

Among those factors and reasons are lower rates of child mortality, urbanization, industrialization, women’s labor force participation, access to modern contraceptives, increased higher education, child care costs, lifestyle changes, changing role and status of women and men, difficulties finding a suitable partner, work and family life balance, delayed marriage and childbearing, greater investments and costs in raising a child.

At the same time that many countries are experiencing below replacement fertility, many other countries, primarily developing countries in Africa and Asia, have relatively high fertility rates (Figure 2).

Source: United Nations.

As a result of those relatively high fertility rates, the populations of those countries are expected to experience rapid population growth during the 21st century.

However, those African and Asian countries are also expected to experience declines in their fertility levels over the coming decades. By 2050, for example, most of those countries are projected to experience substantial declines in their current relatively high fertility levels, which will result in slower rates of population growth.

And the reasons for those expected future declines in today’s high fertility levels are the same that produced the current below replacement fertility rates in other countries, namely, those various societal factors and individual reasons that were enumerated above.

In sum, several generalizations are warranted.

First, despite the hissy fit that many governments are having about their low birth rates and their various pro-natalist policies, programs and incentives, their fertility rates are not expected to return to the replacement level in the foreseeable future.

For a host of reasons, the fertility rates of many countries are expected to remain below the replacement level of two births per woman for most of the 21st century. And as a result of those low rates, some of those countries are facing population decline and rapid demographic ageing.

Second, the current high fertility rates of many developing countries in Africa and Asia are expected to decline over the coming decades. As a result of those fertility declines, the population growth rates of those countries are expected to slow down.

Third, and importantly, contrary to those misleading doomsday predictions, the world’s population is not collapsing nor is human civilization dying out. In fact, the world’s current population of 8.2 billion is continuing to increase. World population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2037, 10 billion by 2060 and to peak at around 10.2 billion people in the mid-2080s.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

By Emilio Godoy
MEXICO, Feb 26 2025 – Mexico has seen several attempts at assembling electric vehicles (EVs), powered by rechargeable batteries, which have faced challenges related to industrial scale, supply chains, and competitiveness

These issues also complicate the new state production plan for the Taruk bus (meaning “roadrunner” in Yaqui) and the lightweight Olinia car (meaning “movement” in Nahuatl), based on the country’s long automotive experience and a growing market. The plan was formally announced in January by President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Experts consulted by IPS praised the initiative but warned of significant technological, regulatory, and infrastructure challenges in a country where transportation generates nearly a third of all polluting emissions. Cleaning up this sector would benefit urban health.“Asians, especially the Chinese, have developed very advanced technology; they are 15 years ahead of us. There’s no comparison. Government support is minimal and doesn’t meet the huge demand of the automotive sector. If Mexico wants to compete with those who have taken over the electric market, it has to invest,” Gustavo Jiménez

“Asians, especially the Chinese, have developed very advanced technology; they are 15 years ahead of us. There is no comparison. Government support is extremely minimal and does not meet the significant demands of the automotive sector,” said Gustavo Jiménez, director of the private Grupo E-mobilitas, which specializes in electromobility consulting.

During his dialogue with IPS, he emphasized that “if Mexico wants to compete with those who have taken over the electric market, it has to invest.”

Information reviewed by IPS shows that the development of the Taruk bus is more advanced, while the Olinia car still lacks a defined strategy. This comes at a challenging time for the sector due to threats of extraordinary tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on vehicles assembled in Mexico.

Additionally, the installation of EV plants by U.S.-based Tesla  and China’s Build Your Dreams (BYD) has been temporarily halted. BYD faces tariffs imposed by the U.S. government on Asian products entering its market.

In fact, prototypes of a Mexican electric bus were designed in 2024 as part of the project “Development of a Mexican Electric Public Transport Bus and Study for the Implementation of Electromobility in Cities to Boost the Country’s Lithium Value Chain.”

The electromobility project is being carried out by the new Secretariat of Science, Humanities, Technologies, and Innovation (Secihti) and private Mexican companies Dina and MegaFlux, which already manufacture electric buses and trucks.

The initiative for electric buses, launched in 2023 with a budget of around US$900,000, aims to accelerate the introduction of Mexican-made units with indigenous technology, strengthen the national EV industry, and support the growth of this segment, given the urgent need to clean up transportation.

The Taruk model will be assembled in the state of Hidalgo, near Mexico City, and benefits from an existing production platform. Its projected weight is 12.5 tons, with a battery discharge rate of around 90% and a range of 180 to 361 kilometers, making it ideal for urban environments.

In comparison, the 50 buses introduced by the capital’s government in October 2024, imported from the Chinese brand Yutong, have a range of 300 kilometers.

In January, President Claudia Sheinbaum announced the state production of the Olinia electric car, designed for short trips. However, the project faces significant technological, economic, and commercial challenges. Credit: Government of Mexico

Competition

The Olinia cars, whose plant will operate in the state of Puebla, bordering Mexico City, has a budget of 1.22 million dollars. They are designed for short trips, with prices ranging from US$ 4,383 to 7,300 and are expected to hit the market by 2026. In comparison, Tesla had planned to invest $5 billion in an assembly plant set to begin operations in 2025.

The Secihti, along with the National Polytechnic Institute and the Mexican Institute of Technology, still lack detailed development plans for the three Olinia models, including a small van.

Currently, automotive companies in Mexico, the world’s seventh-largest producer of light vehicles and third-largest exporter, do not receive subsidies to accelerate the introduction of electric vehicles.

Leticia Pineda, regional leader for Mexico and Canada at the non-governmental  International Council on Clean Transportation, based in Washington, believes the government understands the opportunity to integrate into a valuable supply chain and build economies of scale.

“This is a great opportunity for Mexico to transform its automotive industry, develop manufacturing capabilities to produce vehicles with higher national content. This value addition is a great opportunity to integrate further into this supply chain,” she told IPS.

In 2021, Mexico joined the Glasgow Pact on Electromobility during the climate summit in the Scottish city, which sets a voluntary target of 50% of light vehicle sales being electric and plug-in hybrid by 2030 and 100% by 2040—goals that are difficult to achieve under current conditions.

A prototype of the Taruk electric bus (meaning “roadrunner” in the Yaqui language), designed by the Mexican government and private companies for urban environments in this Latin American country. Credit: Dina

For independent consultant Víctor Alvarado, the intersection of mobility and electricity generation, dominated by fossil fuels in Mexico, must be considered.

“What’s announced but not fully realized is electromobility, and what’s happening is the electrification of heavy and light transportation. Given the composition of the energy matrix, transportation will continue to generate emissions if we don’t commit to electric vehicles,” he told IPS.

The new bus and car ventures will face an increasingly competitive domestic market dominated by U.S., European, and Chinese brands, which have reported significant expansion since 2023.

In recent years, sales of electric and hybrid vehicles, which run on gasoline and electric batteries, have grown in this country of 129 million people, where over 58 million vehicles, mostly cars, are in circulation.

In 2024, EV sales increased by 71%, from 14,172 units in 2023 to 24,283 the following year. The hybrid segment saw the most growth, with sales jumping from 60,146 to 100,020 between the two years, a 66% increase.

The same trend was seen in passenger vehicles, where fossil fuel-powered units, mainly diesel, still dominate. Hybrid model sales surged from just two in 2023 to 670 last year, while electric vehicle sales grew by 16%, from 252 to 294.

However, electric vehicle projects are happening in a legal vacuum. The national strategy, which outlined specific actions and goals, was ready in 2023 but has not been published. While the 2022 General Law on Mobility and Road Safety promotes sustainable transportation, it does not address electric mobility.

Initially, electric mobility in Mexico has the advantage of lithium deposits in rocks and clays, a key element for rechargeable batteries, especially in the northern state of Sonora.

However, environmentalists argue that these deposits are potentially unviable environmentally, economically, and technologically due to water consumption in extraction and high processing costs.

Sales of hybrid and electric vehicles have been growing in recent years in Mexico, though at a slower pace than needed to transition to low-emission transportation. Graph: Amia

Background

The cases of the Mexican private corporation Zacua and Bolivia’s Quantum Motors, whose partner in Mexico is Megaflux, are also illustrative.

The former, located in Puebla, has sold a few dozen units since 2019, with a cost per unit of around $25,000, practically the same as other foreign brands.

Meanwhile, Quantum has sold over 500 cars in Bolivia, El Salvador, Mexico, Paraguay, and Peru since 2019, with their models priced between US$ 6,000 and 8,000, a range similar to what is expected for Olinia’s vehicles.

Mexico has at least 39 automotive plants, including three EV assemblers. Of these, 22 manufacture vehicles and are located in central and northern Mexico, attracted by access to the U.S. market, the main export destination, under the free trade agreement shared with Canada.

Since 2018, Mexico City, with nearly nine million inhabitants and about 24 million in the metropolitan area, has made progress in electrifying public transportation, with units in the Metrobus system and bus routes.

Additionally, cities like Guadalajara, the capital of the western state of Jalisco, and Mérida, the capital of the southeastern state of Yucatán, have promoted similar projects.

The National Strategy for Industrialization and Shared Prosperity, also known as Plan Mexico and announced in January, includes 10 electromobility projects in public transportation across 10 states, with an undefined budget.

Experts consulted by IPS agreed on the importance of comprehensive regulation covering energy sources, infrastructure deployment, vehicle safety, and consumer rights.

For Jiménez, public-private partnerships with Mexican companies and a focus on public transportation are advisable.

“There needs to be significant production capacity to leverage technological advantages and drive industrial development. Electromobility is positioned as a potential solution to health problems, but we must think about public transportation to optimize time, modernize fleets, and reduce environmental impact,” he stated.

Pineda also agreed that delays in the process could result in high costs.

“There’s a lack of joint effort and government support for this transition. These are long-term transformations that require government commitment to provide certainty for investments and the entire supply chain, ensuring progress in electromobility. There needs to be an ecosystem that provides clarity on the direction, so projects don’t remain pilot initiatives,” he emphasized.

By Jeffrey Moyo
BULAWAYO, Zimbabwe, Feb 26 2025 – On Christmas Day in 2022, 27-year-old Thabani Dlodlo’s eight-year-old son drowned in a flooded pit dug up by quarry miners in the vicinity of Pumula North, a high-density suburb in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second-largest city.

As if that was not enough, just a week after New Year’s Day the following year, Dlodlo’s neighbor, 36-year-old Sethule Hlengiwe, also lost her six-year-old daughter after she drowned in another pit flooded with rainwater near her home in Bulawayo.

When tragedy struck, the six-year-old Thenjiwe had sneaked out to play with her agemates in the vicinity of her home.

Thenjiwe’s mother claimed all the illegal quarry miners took to their heels when her daughter drowned.

“Nobody wanted to be held responsible when my daughter drowned. All the quarry miners who were nearby then just bolted,” Hlengiwe told IPS.

Quarry miners have descended on Bulawayo’s open spaces and have dug huge pits, defacing the urban terrain of the once-thriving industrial city.

Often fronting for Chinese quarry owners, the quarry miners working in the vicinity of high-density suburbs often use explosives, which result in cracks on nearby homes—and some have even collapsed.

One such resident whose home was destroyed due to quarry mining is 64-year-old Londiwe Mabuza, once based in the suburb of Pumula North.

“I now live with my relatives, together with my family, after our home collapsed as a result of violent vibrations as quarry miners used explosives mining near my house,” Mabuza told IPS.

Yet while many, like Mabuza, bemoan the collapse of their dwellings, others are bragging about their rich pickings from quarry mining.

“A single wheelbarrow of quarry gives me a straight two dollars after I sell it to the Chinese quarry miners and on a good day, I make sure I sell at least 10 to 15 wheelbarrows laden with quarry,” 29-year-old Melusi Dhlela, also a Pumula South resident.

Environmental activists claim that while individuals such as Dhlela profit from quarry mining, the environment has suffered as a result.

“There are many issues that quarry mining activities in the vicinity of cities cause. The challenge is that the impacts are all negative. This includes biodiversity loss, human health problems such as respiratory diseases, destruction of infrastructure like roads and houses, water pollution, land degradation and noise pollution,” says Mashall Mutambu, an environmentalist and land expert with a master’s in Land Resources Assessment for Development Planning from the Midlands State University in Zimbabwe.

Another quarry miner, 22-year-old Melusi Ngwenya, a resident of Bulawayo’s Magwegwe West high-density suburb, has moved from a life of rags to riches.

“I used to beg for food and money at street corners in the city, but now as a quarry miner, life has changed for me and now I can afford to pay my own rent and buy food and clothing,” he (Ngwenya) told IPS.

Bulawayo’s townships also have to contend with illegal gold miners who have invaded the city, digging up for gold haphazardly and, like quarry miners, creating gullies and huge pits all over the city.

This is a serious safety issue, especially in the rainy season, where they are flooded and pose a danger to children who fall in and often drown. The pits have become known as the pools of death.

But the miners don’t care about the people or the environment damaged by blasting and illegal mining.

“What we want is money, money and nothing more so that we can live better,” said 39-year-old Dumisani Dlamini, a known quarry miner domiciled in the city’s Nkulumane high-density suburb.

The blasting became a common occurrence after a Chinese firm, Haulin Investments (Pvt) Limited, set up a quarry mine in 2021. The 10-year mining contract was given to the company by the Bulawayo City Council.

But while some profit, many Bulawayo residents, like 35-year-old Senzeni Nhlathi, have had to make do with growing noise pollution from quarry sites.

“We have become used to hearing the blasting of rocks and even hills as quarry miners chase the dollar linked to quarry mining, which means the more the blasting of rocks here, the more the noise,” Nhlathi told IPS. “So, we suffer as others make money.”

Bulawayo residents like 27-year-old Japhet Ndiweni claimed residents were not consulted when Haulin started the venture.

“Hualin for instance, has not bothered to ask us about our views when they moved into our residential territories,” Ndiweni told IPS.

Instead of condemning the mining operations, the city fathers have come out vehemently defending the location of quarry mines.

However, not all quarry miners in this area are bad actors.

Anderson Mwembe (43), who is the Treasurer of the Cowdray Park Quarry Crushers Association, said they have approached the Bulawayo City Council to regularize their operations.

With Mwembe and his association on board, children are safe in those areas mined by them.

“We make USD 2 per wheelbarrow of quarry and drowning of children in pits dug up by quarry miners has been avoided because we make sure to chase away all children who want to play in the area,” he (Mwembe) told IPS.

Others have turned to defending their land against quarry miners, like 42-year-old Bekithemba Bhebhe, resident in Bulawayo, who has switched to rearing dogs to fend off the daring quarry poachers.

Bhebhe owns five vicious dogs, which have kept quarry poachers at bay more effectively than the fence that Bulawayo City Council has erected at some points frequented by illegal quarry miners.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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