By Maximilian Malawista
NEW YORK, May 16 2025 – The Gulf’s most powerful weapon isn’t a military, a United Nations (UN) Security Council seat, or a legacy of global diplomacy. Choosing multilateralism and mega-projects over militaries and old-world diplomacy, they are tipping the scale without firing a single shot. Their approach is more modern, where money, alliances, and an active vision for the future are the weapon of choice.

The UN’s 2030 Agenda is a framework for redefining global leadership, and it seems like the Gulf nations are stepping into it full force. As global policy moves towards renewable energy and farther away from fossil fuels, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Kuwait are the leading countries in global climate reform. Through their plans, from Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 to Kuwait’s Vision 2035, these Gulf states are not looking to rely on oil: they are actively diversifying their economies for the world’s market, and fast. They do this by promoting initiatives which support SDG 7: affordable and clean energy, SDG 13: climate action, and SDG 8: decent work and economic growth, setting the stage for a renewable, efficient, and clean world. The Gulf is showing that they don’t just want to escape the “resource curse” but rather redesign global leadership in its entirety.

While Gulf nations are actively diversifying, they are still heavily reliant on oil as a main driver in their economies. Saudi Arabia sees 40 percent of its 1.068 trillion USD GDP to be solely oil, the UAE sees 30 percent of their 514.1 billion USD GDP, Qatar follows with oil accounting for around 60 percent of their 213 billion USD GDP, and Kuwait at 50 percent of their 163.7 billion USD GDP. Not only is oil their main driver, but it is also their main global influence, as 21 percent of the world’s oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a shared border with the UAE.

Without Gulf oil, the world’s energy prices would skyrocket, easily putting many global powers into recessions. Powers like Europe, China, South Korea, Japan, the U.S., and India all rely on the Gulf for their energy needs, placing most of their oil dependence on the Gulf above other oil exporters.

However, with actions like the Paris Agreement, the Global Stocktake, and COP28, countries that have historically been big oil importers are now starting to shift towards renewable energy sources, hoping to eventually completely shift out of oil and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. This means reducing oil emissions by 43% by 2030, a huge hit to Gulf economies if they don’t pivot fast. A move away from oil means the crippling of the Gulf economies, but this is what Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait are prepared for.

In cities like Dubai, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Jeddah, Doha, and Kuwait City, the Gulf is now home to various desert mirages, all of which are putting their 2030 visions above all. Not only are they tourist destinations for the desert traveler, but home to businessmen and billionaire elites. The Gulf achieves this by making their cities expat-friendly. The UAE has topped the leaderboards with #1 in the world for movers, with Qatar at #3, and Saudi Arabia at #10, breaking the narrative of being strict for foreigners.

Each nation has strived to create a connectedness within their cities, using the English language for most if not all business transactions, and teaching it alongside or even without Arabic, depending on the type of schooling. 92 percent of Dubai’s population are expats, followed by Doha at 90 percent, Abu Dhabi at 80 percent, Kuwait City at 68 percent, Jeddah at 58 percent, and Riyadh at 52 percent. None of the main Gulf cities are Arab majorities nor majority Arabic-speaking, they are people from diverse backgrounds and foreign countries: numbers unseen anywhere else in the world.

Credit: Unsplash/Oskars Sylwan

A Challenge to the West:

The most stable economic expansion, zero crime, the geographic crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa, and allied with virtually the whole world, the Gulf has seen a surge in global mediations, sovereign wealth deposits, and UN activity at a faster rate than anywhere else.

Just this March, peace talks between the United States and Russia, amidst the Russia-Ukraine war, took place in Riyadh, highlighting its status as a close ally for both nations.

Ali Shihabi, a retired Saudi banker, now author and commentator, said: “I don’t think there’s another place where the leader has such a good personal relationship with both Trump and Putin.”

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Slam, or MBS, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, has pushed for a modernization of Saudi Arabia, moving the kingdom away from rigid cultural traditions in daily life, and toward a more globally welcoming cosmopolitan society – a direction which has been echoed all throughout the Gulf; aligning with a broader diplomatic vision and values on the global stage.

Similarly, Qatar has been heading mediations between the Israel-Palestine conflict, connecting Hamas and the West, playing a crucial role in hostage negotiations, ceasefire & de-escalation talks, pressure for acceptance of humanitarian aid, and a coordinator in the financial support for Palestine’s reconstruction.

The rest of the Gulf has also seen increasing diplomatic mediation efforts. Saudi Arabia managed mediation between warring factions in Sudan, creating room for U.S. dialogue. Culminating in 2020, Qatar had hosted Taliban-US negotiations, by being the neutral ground where the Taliban’s political office was stationed, leading to an agreement for the withdrawal of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Lebanon’s political gridlock was alleviated through mediation and economic support efforts by Qatar, facilitating the election of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon. Saudi Arabia arranged the re-entry of Syria into the Arab League by initiating talks and promoting regional stability. The UAE, behind closed doors, has opened communication channels between Pakistan and India, looking to reduce tension in the Kashmir region. Kuwait also led successful mediation efforts during the Gulf crisis, which resolved the most serious internal dispute in the history of the GCC.

Roger Carstens, the United States Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, said in 2023: “What I can say is that Qatar is playing a very strong and important role as an intermediary. There are times when, of course, the United States does not really have entrée into some of the negotiating groups, and this is a case where Qatar has really been able to bring its gravitas in the region to bear.”

This role which Qatar has, as an Islamic and Arabic-speaking Middle Eastern nation but also a wealthy, trusted, connected member of the Western world, has allowed its intermediary status, one which other Gulf nations are also creating space for.

The Gulf displays itself as not only an ally to the West, but a contender in its model. The Gulf has proved its ability in filling diplomatic vacuums, exhibiting that the power of mediation is not exclusive to the West, while actively creating global financial and innovation hubs, featuring multinational HQs, and UN offices in cities that are nothing short of futuristic desert mirages – while much of the West crumbles under crippling and dated infrastructure.

This could be a signal to the West for change, perhaps a switch in its focus. By actively investing in markets outside of oil, the Gulf is successfully creating civilizations open to the world, and far more welcoming than the traditional Western city, by just about every metric, whether you look at the US. News, or urban safety and cleanliness benchmarks, or the IMD Smart City Index: the Gulf is smashing the charts. From finance and AI to innovation, travel, diplomacy, and inclusivity, the Gulf is actively surpassing Western metropolises, becoming the go-to global destination of choice.

Maximilian Malawista is a student at the University of Buffalo where he majors in Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE), Global Affairs, and English.

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By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, May 16 2025 – Due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, millions of children, particularly in some of the world’s wealthiest countries, experienced declines in their overall health and academic performances.

On May 13, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) issued a report detailing global downturns in child wellbeing in the 2020s. Titled Report Card 19: Child Wellbeing in an Unpredictable World, the report compares data from studies conducted in 2018 and 2022, with children from across 43 countries in the European Union and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). There were six markers of wellbeing that were studied: life satisfaction, suicide rates, child mortality, obesity, academic success, and social skills.

Over the past 25 years, these countries have noted significant upturns in child wellbeing, marked by decreased rates of suicide and child mortality, as well as increased rates of school completion. Despite this, rates of child wellbeing have begun to slip in the past five years due to th COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating a host of social inequities, as well as heightened risks brought on by climate shocks and world conflicts.

According to the report, the top three countries that showed the lowest rates of decline remained the same from 2018 to 2022, being the Netherlands, Denmark, and France. Mexico, Türkiye, and Chile were found to have experienced the highest rates of decline in child wellbeing. Other nations with highly developed economies, such as South Korea and Japan, reported gains in academic performance but significant losses in mental wellbeing.

Due to the widespread global shutdowns of schools during the COVID-19 pandemic, children around the world are estimated to have lost, on average, about 7 months to a year of progress in their academic careers. Although many schools attempted to supplement the absence of an in-person curriculum with remote learning, it was largely unsuccessful.

According to a study from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), many schools around the world reported lower scores on standardized tests compared to pre-pandemic years. Additionally, many students and teachers reported decreased academic performance due to increased rates of disorganization, a lack of motivation, as well as jarring lifestyle changes.

Declines in academic performance can also be attributed to a lack of essential tools such as internet access, as well as being in environments that are not conducive to learning, such as noisy or overcrowded households. Additionally, the pandemic spurred increased rates of electronics usage and decreased rates of interaction with peers, which led to impairments in social development, fewer hours of sleep, depression, anxiety, and attention deficits.

Due to the prolonged state of social isolation, many of these impacts can still be seen in children and young adults in the present day. In the 43 countries that were surveyed, out of 17.2 million 15 year-old children still in school, 8.4 million were determined to be not functionally literate and numerate. This indicates that roughly half of this age group has little to no understanding of basic reading, writing, and math skills. Illiteracy has increased the most in Bulgaria, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cyprus, and Mexico. Humanitarian organizations have expressed concern that these children will be largely unprepared for most sectors of their local economies.

The UNICEF report underscores that children from “disadvantaged” families, such as those experiencing poverty, disability, food insecurity, disease, conflicts, and violence, are disproportionately affected.

“Prior to the pandemic, children were already struggling on multiple fronts, and didn’t have access to adequate support – even in wealthy countries,” said UNICEF Innocenti Director, Bo Viktor Nylund. In the wake of the pandemic, the data set a worrying benchmark for children’s wellbeing, especially for children from disadvantaged backgrounds,” Nylund added.

Additionally, nations around the world have reported significant declines in mental health in the wake of the pandemic. Out of the 32 countries that yielded available data in mental health, 14 reported decreased rates of life satisfaction. In nearly all of the countries that experienced declines in this field, girls were found to have less life satisfaction than boys.

Surprisingly, socioeconomic status was found to have a relatively weak correlation with life satisfaction. According to UNICEF, decreased life satisfaction can be attributed to a lack of exercise, increased social media use, and worsened peer relationships, all of which have been exacerbated by the pandemic.

Additionally, 17 countries reported increased rates of suicide. Japan, South Korea, and Türkiye reported the largest increases in suicide rates. Humanitarian organizations also expressed concern of increased rates of suicide among small populations in Iceland and Malta, indicating widespread instability in these regions.

On the other hand, the report notes that in 2018, it was estimated that roughly 2 in every 1,000 children died in their youth. This figure has halved in 2022, dropping to only 1 out of every 1,000 children. Overall, rates of child mortality have been dropping for decades, with 33 out of 43 countries studied reporting vast decreases in child deaths.

Despite these gains, UNICEF found that rates of child overweightness and obesity have been on the rise following the pandemic. The biggest declines in physical health have been observed in Chile, Colombia, and the United States. In wealthy countries, children have been recorded to have higher rates of obesity, while food insecurity plagues the youth of lower income countries.

Increased rates of obesity and overweightness have been attributed to increased worldwide reliance on digital technology and decreased physical exercise. Use of digital technology is linked with consumption of nutritionally poor foods and the use of harmful cosmetic products that cause hormonal and reproductive issues. Additionally, wealthier countries face higher rates of obesity as unhealthy diets are associated with people who work more hours a week, on average.

“The extent of the challenges children are facing means we need a coherent, holistic, whole-of-childhood approach that addresses their needs at every stage of their lives,” said Nylund.

UNICEF has urged local governments to adopt programs that promote access to healthier food options, offer mental health services, and establish supplemental learning programs that ensure that all young people maintain the necessary skills for career success. Furthermore, it is imperative that these programs target the most vulnerable populations, such as disabled children or those that are living in protracted crises, and supply them with the essential services they will need to be self-sufficient.

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By Diwash Gahatraj
JHAPA, Nepal, May 16 2025 – Sitting in his small hut in the Beldangi refugee camp in Jhapa district, Nepal, Narayan Kumar Subedi feels relieved that his son, Aasis Subedi, is safe.

Aasis is one of four United States deportees who were the subject of Nepal’s Supreme Court landmark ruling on April 24, which directed the government not to deport four Bhutanese refugees who entered Nepal in March of this year after being disowned by Bhutan. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deported the four after they had lived in various parts of the United States for nearly a decade.

The Apex body ordered that “Aasis Subedi, Santosh Darji, Roshan Tamang, and Ashok Gurung should not remain in police custody. Instead, they should be housed in the Bhutanese refugee camps in eastern Nepal, where they lived before moving to the United States.” The ruling came in response to a habeas corpus petition filed by Narayan, father of Aasis.

“It was a mixed feeling that night when my son and two other deported men—Santosh and Roshan—came to my house. I was thrilled to see my son after ten years but was equally sad that he was escaping like a stateless homeless person,” says the 55-year-old.

On March 27, the morning after their deportation, Nepali immigration authorities arrested the three men for entering the country without visas. The fourth refugee, Ashok Gurung, was detained separately in Bahundangi, a village on the Indo-Nepal border, two days later.

The Department of Immigration investigated their case for nearly a month while they remained in police custody until the country’s highest court granted them a second chance to live in Nepal. However, this decision will be reviewed after 60 days. Until then, the four men must remain within the camp premises and report to the local police station once a week, adds Narayan.

The four men have found themselves in legal and diplomatic limbo after Bhutan refused to accept them back. Now sheltered in Nepal’s refugee camps under a temporary court order, their case highlights the ongoing crisis of statelessness among the Lhotshampa community and exposes the fragile nature of third-country resettlement solutions.

Cruel Connection

Aasis Subedi photographed with his wife while in the United States.

The four men in their mid-thirties—Aasis, Santosh, Roshan, and Ashok—share a bitter connection of multiple displacements and statelessness.

They belong to the Bhutanese Lhotshampa community, a Nepali-speaking ethnic group that settled in southern Bhutan. The Lhotshampas (“southerners” in Bhutan’s Dzongkha language) migrated to Bhutan in the late 19th and early 20th centuries during the reign of King Ugyen Wangchuck, encouraged to develop the sparsely populated southern lowlands.

Initially granted citizenship in the 1950s and 1970s, the status of Lhotshampas changed when Bhutan introduced the “One Nation, One People” policy in the late 1980s. The policy promoted Drukpa cultural norms, which included mandatory dress codes and language use, resulting in protests from Lhotshampas who felt marginalized.

The government subsequently revoked citizenship for many Lhotshampas, labeling them “illegal immigrants.” Between 1990 and 1993, persecution and mass arrests forced over 100,000 Lhotshampas to flee—a situation many consider ethnic cleansing. Most ended up in refugee camps in eastern Nepal.

A few decades ago, the families of the four deported individuals also came to Nepal as expelled citizens of Bhutan, and they lived as refugees in the camps until a decade ago, when they became part of a third-country resettlement program.

After years of unsuccessful attempts to return to Bhutan through numerous petitions to the king and internal organizations, as well as appeals for help from nations like India and Nepal, the refugees’ hopes for repatriation dimmed.

A turning point came in 2007 when the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) launched a third-country resettlement program, offering the displaced Bhutanese both a ray of hope and a path to citizenship elsewhere. By 2019, more than 113,500 refugees had relocated to eight different countries, with the majority settling in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Approximately 96,000 Bhutanese resettled in the United States.

Following the resettlement program, only two of the original seven refugee camps—Beldangi and Pathri in Jhapa district—remain operational, housing around 6,300 residents. These individuals either declined third-country resettlement in the hope of returning to their homeland, Bhutan, or missed the opportunity due to a lack of valid documentation.

Now, the four men have rejoined camp life. All four had U.S. Green Cards—despite this, the Trump administration deported them. Officials suspected them of criminal acts. Some had finished long jail terms. Then ICE took them for deportation. After days in custody, they were taken to Paro, Bhutan, via New Delhi.

At Paro Airport, Bhutanese officials interrogated them but refused to recognize them as citizens. Authorities escorted them out through the Phuentsholing-Jaigaon border. Each received INR 30,000 (about USD 350).

“With nowhere to go, my son and the others decided to come to Nepal. They had no documents to show at the border, so they had to cross illegally with help from an Indian fixer,” explains Narayan.

Bhutan’s refusal to recognize the deportees as citizens has resulted in a diplomatic impasse between the two Himalayan countries. 

“The order from the Supreme Court of Nepal to stop deportation gives these men temporary relief but doesn’t solve the bigger problem,” said Dr. Gopal Krishna Siwakoti, President of INHURED International, a human rights organization. “The court only directed the government to finish its investigation within 60 days, leaving their future uncertain after that period.”

“Nobody seems to have clear answers in this complex situation,” Siwakoti noted, describing it as a “bureaucratic black hole.”

“We had hoped the Supreme Court would direct the government to start diplomatic talks with Bhutan, India, and the USA at the same time, considering these men were essentially made stateless and moved between countries against their will. Unfortunately, the issue wasn’t mentioned in the ruling,” Siwakoti added.

So far, America has deported 24 Bhutanese refugees. Besides the four men in Nepal, there are no official records on the whereabouts of the others.

United States Travel Ban

Bhutan, known for promoting the Gross National Happiness Index, has traditionally maintained favorable diplomatic relations with the United States. However, since early this year,  Bhutan has been included in a draft “Red List” proposed by the United States government.

This list suggested a complete travel ban for citizens of certain countries, including Bhutan, due to concerns over national security and irregular migration patterns. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security reported a 37 percent increase in visa violations. Reportedly, over 200 Bhutanese nationals were found to be residing illegally in the United States between 2013 and 2022.

This policy shift appears to have been influenced in part by the unresolved issue of Bhutanese refugees. Sivakoti, a long-time advocate for resolving the Bhutanese refugee crisis, stated, “We understand that the United States administration had discussions with the Bhutanese government prior to the deportations. The United States presented documentation showing that while these individuals had refugee status in Nepal, their country of origin was Bhutan.”

On this basis, the United States contended that Bhutan should assume responsibility for these people. Bhutan, however, remained reluctant.

“The U.S. administration then took strict action and placed Bhutan in the ‘red zone.’ After such a move by the United States, Bhutan hesitated and was forced to evacuate these refugees,” Siwakoti said in an interview with Sethopathi, a Nepali news outlet.

Meanwhile, the Bhutanese government has reportedly requested a review of this decision, asserting that their citizens do not pose a significant security threat. As of now, the draft travel ban has not been officially implemented.

Meanwhile, the future looks uncertain for the four men stuck in the Beldangi camp and others who may face deportation in the coming days. Sivakoti says, “The complex legal and immigration challenges surrounding their cases make it unlikely that any country would accept them.”

“Today, resettlement opportunities have shrunk worldwide. There might be a small chance through family or institutional sponsorship in another country, but even that requires proper documents—like a refugee registration card or a travel document—which are nearly impossible to get now or anytime soon.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

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By Inés M. Pousadela
MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, May 16 2025 – Three catastrophic events in the Balkans have sparked powerful movements for systemic change. A train collision that killed 57 people in Greece, a nightclub fire that claimed 59 young lives in North Macedonia and a collapsed railway station roof that left 15 dead in Serbia have ignited sustained anti-corruption protests in all three countries. These weren’t random tragedies but the culmination of systemic failure – neglected safety regulations, illegally issued permits and compromised oversight – with corruption the common denominator.

Young people, particularly students, stand at the forefront of these movements, alongside victims’ families who’ve become powerful advocates for change. In Greece, the Association of Relatives of Tempi Victims has emerged as a legitimate voice demanding accountability. North Macedonia’s protests have united citizens across economic and political divides, channelling widespread disillusionment with limited youth prospects and endemic corruption. Serbia’s movement has achieved remarkable geographic reach, spreading to some 400 cities and towns with innovative tactics like ‘half-hour noise’ protests following moments of silence for victims.

All three countries became democracies within living memory: Greece democratised five decades ago when its military junta collapsed, while North Macedonia and Serbia emerged from Communist Yugoslavia after its 1990 dissolution. Today, profound disillusionment pervades these societies. Clientelism, corruption and patronage flourish, effectively placing state functions at the service of elite interests rather than public needs. In Serbia, and to a lesser extent in North Macedonia, governments have also taken authoritarian turns. The most deeply disappointed are young people who grew up after democratic transitions and were taught to expect better.

The human cost of corruption

Greece’s February 2023 railway tragedy revealed a system crippled by chronic underinvestment and maintenance failures linked to corrupt contracting practices. In the face of official denials and inaction, private investigators hired by victims’ families discovered many initially survived the crash, only to perish in the subsequent fire, possibly caused by undeclared flammable chemical cargo.

In North Macedonia, the Pulse nightclub that caught fire this March was a disaster in waiting: a converted factory with only one viable exit, locked emergency doors, highly flammable materials and no fire safety equipment, operating with an illegally issued licence.

Serbia’s Novi Sad railway station, where a canopy collapsed in November 2024, had just been renovated under confidential contracts with Chinese companies. The tragedy was preventable, but corner-cutting maximised profits at the expense of safety.

In all three cases, excessive private influence over government decisions sacrificed public safety for private gain. Warning signs had repeatedly been flagged by civil society groups, journalists and opposition politicians, only to be ignored. A protest slogan in North Macedonia powerfully captured this view: ‘We are not dying from accidents, we are dying from corruption’. The same sentiment echoed in a Greek protest slogan, ‘Their policies cost human lives’ and a Serbian message to the authorities: ‘You have blood on your hands’. Another popular Serbian protest motto, ‘We are all under the canopy’, conveyed a general sense of shared vulnerability from corrupt governance structures.

Demands and responses

Protesters across all three countries share strikingly similar demands: accountability for those directly responsible and officials who enabled safety violations, transparent investigations free from political influence and systemic reforms to address corruption’s root causes. They recognise that democracy requires functioning accountability mechanisms beyond elections, in the form of institutionalised checks and balances and public oversight.

Government responses have taken a predictable course: minor concessions followed by attempts to manage rather than meaningfully address public anger.

North Macedonia’s interior minister was quick to admit the nightclub’s licence was illegally issued and the authorities ordered the detention of 20 people, including the club manager and government officials. But protesters saw these actions as scapegoating rather than genuine reform. In Greece, following the train crash initially blamed on a ‘tragic human error‘, the transport minister resigned, but investigations progressed at a glacial pace amid accusations of evidence cover-ups and avoidance of political responsibility. Serbia’s government initially released some classified documents and promised to address protesters’ demands, yet as protests persisted, President Aleksandar Vučić shifted to confrontational rhetoric, accusing protesters of orchestrating violence as puppets of western intelligence services.

The pattern of symbolic gestures followed by resistance to substantive reform, sometimes accompanied by protest repression, revealed a fundamental credibility gap: people can’t trust that announced reforms will be implemented when implementation depends on institutions compromised by corruption. This explains why protesters across all three countries emphasise civil society oversight and adherence to international standards as essential components of any credible reform.

From street protest to institutional reform

The emotional impact of these tragedies created rare policy windows, mobilising otherwise disengaged people and generating reform pressure. The critical question remains whether these windows will close with minimal change or whether sustained pressure will achieve meaningful institutional transformation.

These movements face significant challenges: maintaining mobilisation as emotional impact fades, avoiding co-optation or division by shallow governmental reform language and shifting from opposing clear wrongs to offering politically feasible yet transformative reform ideas. History suggests real reform is rare, bringing the danger that, without government action, momentum could be coopted by populist politicians eager to take advantage of anger at government failures and put it at the service of their regressive agendas.

But there are also grounds for optimism. The broad-based protest coalitions that have emerged have shown the potential to cross traditional political divides. Their focus on specific, documented governance failures provides tangible reform targets rather than abstract demands. The moral imperative of honouring victims creates emotional resources that could sustain them over time. And they’ve come at a time when corrupt elites’ legitimacy was already under strain due to economic challenges.

As protesters keep gathering in town squares across the Balkans, they embody a compelling vision of democracy that genuinely serves citizens rather than rulers. In reclaiming democratic promises repeatedly betrayed by those in power, they serve as a reminder that power in a democracy should flow from and benefit everyone, not just a few.

Inés M. Pousadela is CIVICUS Senior Research Specialist, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

For interviews or more information, please contact [email protected]

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