By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Jun 30 2025 – Approximately 1.3 billion people, or 16% of the world’s population, wish to leave their country permanently, while over a billion people believe that fewer or no immigrants should be allowed into their countries. This demographic struggle between the two sides over international migration is causing significant social, economic, and political repercussions for nations and their citizens.

The 1.3 billion individuals desiring to emigrate to another country is over four times the size of the estimated total number of immigrants worldwide in 2025, which is around 305 million. If all the people desiring to emigrate could do so, the global number of immigrants would increase to about 1.6 billion.

While an estimate of the total number of immigrants in the world is readily available, estimating the total number of unauthorized immigrants is much more challenging, with few reliable estimates available on a global scale.

If the percentage of unauthorized immigrants among all immigrants in the United States, approximately 25%, applies to the global immigrant population, the estimated number of unauthorized immigrants worldwide would be around 75 million (Figure 1).

Source: United Nations and Gallup Polls.

The global proportion desiring to emigrate permanently to another country has increased significantly in recent years, rising from 12% in 2011 to 16% in 2023.

Additionally, the desire to emigrate varies greatly across the different regions of the world. In 2023, Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest proportion desiring to emigrate at 37%, a significant increase from its 29% in 2011 (Figure 2).

Source: Gallup Polls.

In almost all major regions, the proportion desiring to emigrate permanently saw a substantial increase between 2011 and 2023. For instance, the proportions for the regions of the Middle East and North Africa, as well as Latin America and the Caribbean, rose from approximately 18% to 28%.

The desire to emigrate is not exclusive to developing regions. In the European Union, nearly 20% of the population in 2023 expressed a desire to emigrate. Similarly, in the United States and Canada, around 18% of their populations in 2023 desired to emigrate, a significant increase from the 10% reported in 2011.

The significant imbalance between the desire to emigrate and the number of immigrants countries are accepting is a major demographic factor contributing to unauthorized migration. Thousands of migrants die annually on migration routes in their attempts to reach their desired destination country

The number of people desiring to emigrate permanently exceeds the number of immigrants countries are willing to admit, leading many individuals to migrate without authorization.

For example, while approximately 170 million adults wish to emigrate to the United States, the country’s annual number of immigrants granted legal permanent residence has ranged from 1 to 2 million, with net immigration expected to average just over 1 million annually in the future. Similarly, in Canada, about 85 million people desire to emigrate, but the annual number of immigrants admitted ranges from 400,000 to 500,000.

The significant imbalance between the desire to emigrate and the number of immigrants countries are accepting is a major demographic factor contributing to unauthorized migration. Thousands of migrants die annually on migration routes in their attempts to reach their desired destination country.

In addition to the demographic imbalance, other important factors contributing to unauthorized migration include poverty, unemployment, low wages, harsh living conditions, violence, crime, persecution, political instability, armed conflict, lack of health care, limited education opportunities, and climate change.

Many migrant destination countries are experiencing record-high numbers of unlawful border crossings, unauthorized arrivals, and visa overstays, leading to millions of individuals living unlawfully within those countries.

Human rights regarding international migration are relatively straightforward. Article 13 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states that “Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country”. While all people have the right to leave and return to their country, they do not have the right to enter another without permission nor to overstay a temporary visit.

However, Article 14 of the Universal Declaration also states that “Everyone has the right to seek and to enjoy in other countries asylum from persecution”. As a result, many migrants entering a country without authorization claim asylum to escape persecution.

To be granted asylum, an individual must meet the internationally recognized definition of a refugee.

The 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees codified the right of asylum. The right to asylum is for anyone with “a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.”

The Convention and its Protocol, however, do not require governments to grant asylum to those who qualify.

By claiming asylum, migrants lacking legal authorization to enter are in principle permitted to remain in the destination country while their asylum claims are being adjudicated. Typically, the adjudication process takes several years and the large majority of asylum claims are denied.

For example, in the United States, approximately 70 percent of asylum claims have been denied over the past several years. Similarly, high levels of asylum claim denials, often exceeding 70 percent in first-instance asylum applications, are reported among many European countries, including France, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and Sweden.

Many destination countries, especially wealthy, more developed nations, view the extensive use of asylum claims by unauthorized migrants as a means of avoiding deportation. Although most claims are judged to lack merit, the large numbers of claims overwhelm the ability of countries to review them in a timely manner and enforce negative rulings to send people back to their home countries.

To address the large number of asylum claims, some countries are adopting various policies. For example, some countries are requiring unauthorized migrants to wait abroad while their asylum claims are being considered. Other countries are mandating that unauthorized migrants seek asylum in another country and have also implemented policies to transfer the migrants to different third countries for processing their asylum claim or for resettlement.

Looking towards the future, the world’s population, currently at 8.2 billion, is expected to increase by another two billion people over the next fifty years. During this time, the population of more developed regions is projected to decline by around 70 million.

In contrast, by 2075, the population of less developed regions, excluding the least developed countries, is projected to grow by close to 700 million. This significant population increase is about half the level expected for the least developed countries, which as a group are expected to increase by about 1.4 billion (Figure 3).

Source: United Nations.

While countries are addressing unauthorized migration, many of them are also experiencing or anticipating population decline. Despite the current and expected decreases in population size, countries are not ready to accept large numbers of immigrants.

Instead of increasing immigration numbers, countries are focusing on raising their low fertility rates, which have dropped and remain well below the replacement level.

Business leaders, employers, various non-governmental organizations, families, and some government officials acknowledge the benefits of international migration and may even tolerate some unauthorized migration.

However, many citizens in destination countries, particularly those on the political far right, increasingly view newcomers, especially those living in the country without authorization, as a threat to jobs, cultural integrity, national security, and a financial burden on public funds. Consequently, many governments in these countries have implemented policies and actions to deport migrants, especially those who are unauthorized.

Furthermore, opponents of increased immigration are worried that it will negatively impact their traditional culture, shared values, and national identity. They believe that immigration, particularly unauthorized migration, undermines their way of life, national security, ethnic heritage and social cohesion.

In conclusion, international migration has always been a fundamental, defining demographic phenomenon with significant economic, social and political implications worldwide. Currently, the global population of over 8.2 billion people is grappling with an escalating struggle over international migration.

On one side of this struggle are approximately 1.3 billion people desiring to emigrate, with many choosing to do so without authorization and often risking their lives to reach their destination. On the other side are over a billion people in destination countries attempting to prevent this emigration, reduce the rising numbers of immigrants, and deport those living in their territories without authorization, including many who are seeking asylum.

Given the demographics, significant differences between the two sides, and the current situations in various countries, it is likely that the struggle over international migration will persist throughout the 21st century.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division, and author of many publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

By Heather Stobaugh
NEW YORK, Jun 30 2025 – On July 1st, USAID officially shuts down and transfers operations to the U.S. State Department. Amid growing uncertainty about the future of U.S. foreign assistance structures and funding, supply chains that deliver life-saving treatment to malnourished children worldwide have broken down, triggering a global nutrition crisis.

We are witnessing the dismantling of a system that has saved millions of children’s lives for decades. The consequences will reverberate across the world: from peanut farms in Georgia to remote clinics in South Sudan, creating a humanitarian catastrophe that could have been prevented.

For more than two decades, the American people have supported the production, shipment, and administration of treatment packets, called ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF), to save the lives of children suffering from a severe form of malnutrition, which affects 19 million children worldwide at any given moment.

These RUTF packets of specially-formulated nutrient-dense paste, often branded as “Plumpy’nut”, boast recovery rates exceeding 90% and can bring a child from medical crisis to health in as little as 45 days. Without treatment, survival rates are low, as a malnourished child is 11 times more likely to die than a healthy one.

Today, it all hangs in the balance. Our world has seen immense progress in preventing child deaths from malnutrition; unless we act fast and funding cuts are reversed, all our progress will regress 30 years seemingly overnight.

A System in Collapse

The numbers tell a devastating story. The closure of USAID and transfer of operations to the U.S. State Department has left 90% of all USAID contracts terminated, including $1.4 billion in emergency nutrition programming that, in part, supported approximately 50 percent of the global RUTF supply.

As a result, production of RUTF has halted, with most manufacturers receiving no new orders since December 2024. Eighteen countries face RUTF stockouts set to begin this month, creating a shortage of over two million cartons that could treat over two million malnourished children.

With supply chains requiring 3-6 months to produce, transport, and deliver the life-saving treatment to children who need it, time has run out.

Countries like South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Nigeria that are already grappling with conflict, climate shocks, and displacement will be among the first and hardest hit. In South Sudan alone, nutrition response funding has been slashed nearly in half, leaving one in two severely malnourished children without treatment. UNICEF estimates that Ethiopia will run out of RUTF supplies imminently.

The reality on the ground is stark: RUTF stockouts mean mothers will bring their children to health and nutrition centers only to be turned away because there’s no available treatment. Even before the current crisis, millions of children would lose the fight against malnutrition, given limited resources. Now, that number is going to rise rapidly.

Beyond the Numbers: Human Cost

Nutrition and health services have always been integrated: Malnourished children with medical complications often require referral to health facilities for further medical care in addition to the nutrition treatment. A malnourished child with a weakened immune system who contracts malaria may not survive because their body cannot fight off the simple illness.

But now, funding cuts for health programs have drastically reduced treatment for illnesses, such as tuberculosis, malaria, and HIV, which, alongside cuts to nutrition programs, create a perfect storm. These preventable, treatable conditions become matters of life and death.

Progress Was Being Made:

RUTF’s introduction nearly 30 years ago has revolutionized our fight against child mortality. Experts estimate that before RUTF, child survival from malnutrition was about 25%; with RUTF, it’s over 90%. Leading scientists and researchers were conducting rigorous research investigating how to optimize the dosage of RUTF and piloting new formulations to make limited resources stretch to reach more children in need of treatment.

Other innovative research on preventing relapse through gut microbiome restoration was showing tremendous promise for sustainable solutions and conserving resources. Together with improved public health programs, our world has seen annual child mortality rates drop from 12.9 million in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2023.

With the current uncertainty around U.S. humanitarian aid funding, the immediate outlook is very bleak, and doubts grow every day regarding the longer-term projections for any continuation in reducing child mortality worldwide. From a humanitarian perspective, it’s criminally irresponsible to stop trying to give every child a chance at life past their fifth birthday.

American Communities Feel the Impact

The crisis is not confined to remote nutrition clinics in foreign countries. American agricultural communities that supply raw ingredients for the life-saving RUTF are also hit hard. Peanut farmers in rural Georgia and dairy farmers across the country, critical to the RUTF supply chain, now face canceled contracts and uncertain futures.

MANA Nutrition in Fitzgerald, Georgia – which has produced RUTF to treat 10 million children across the globe since 2010 – estimates it has enough cash to keep running through August at best if no new contracts materialize.

The irony is profound: feeding children, mothers, and families has always been a deeply bipartisan American value. Emergency food assistance aligns with foreign policy priorities: it’s measurable, cost-effective, and builds lasting goodwill. These relationships also helped American farmers put food on their own families’ tables.

Other efforts were ongoing to increase local production of RUTF in countries where it is needed the most, creating jobs, bolstering local economies, and establishing self-sustaining solutions within each country’s challenges. But these smaller and newer RUTF manufacturers in the global south can only supply a fraction of what’s needed and have less reserves to be able to withstand the gap in revenue.

A Call for Urgent Action

Earlier this month, the U.S. State Department announced approval of $50 million for RUTF, representing 1.4 million boxes of the life-saving supplies that could “nourish over one million of the world’s most vulnerable children.” While this represents welcome progress after months of uncertainty, the amount is minimal compared to the need, and still no contracts have been confirmed. So we wait.

Meanwhile, every 11 seconds, a child dies from malnutrition-related causes. These aren’t abstract statistics—they’re preventable deaths of children who could be saved for about $150 a child. The dismantling of USAID represents more than a policy change—it’s a moral choice about America’s role in the world and our commitment to the most vulnerable.

There’s nothing more devastating than looking a mother in the eyes when both of you know that her child probably won’t make it to their next birthday, or perhaps even to the end of the week. Previously, that situation was becoming less frequent. However, now, I shudder to think how many more mothers around the world will be in this situation.

The clock is ticking, and children’s lives hang in the balance. As supply chains collapse and treatment centers close, the time to act is now, before this preventable crisis becomes an irreversible global tragedy.

IPS UN Bureau

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Excerpt:

Dr. Heather Stobaugh is Associate Director of Research and Innovation, Action Against Hunger

By Maximilian Malawista
UNITED NATIONS, Jun 30 2025 – Tobacco kills up to half its users who don’t quit, a grim reality that highlights the urgent mission of global tobacco control. A new report from the World Health Organization (WHO) reveals that while many countries have followed the organization’s protocols to reduce tobacco use, major gaps still remain in broader implementation.

The Global Tobacco Epidemic 2025 report was launched on June 23 at the World Conference on Tobacco Control in Dublin, where global health leaders emphasized a renewed commitment towards reducing tobacco-related deaths, which claim more than seven million lives each year. At least 80 percent of the world’s 1.3 billion tobacco users live in low- and middle-income countries, where the risk of tobacco-related illness and death is much higher.

The report focuses on the WHO MPOWER tobacco control measures, the steps that countries need to take to reduce tobacco usage. The WHO MPOWER tobacco control measures include:

· Monitoring tobacco use and prevention policies;
· Protecting people from tobacco smoke with smoke-free air legislation;
· Offering help to quit tobacco use;
· Warning about the dangers of tobacco with pack labels and mass media;
· Enforcing bans on tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship; and
· Raising taxes on tobacco.

The WHO MPOWER measures were first introduced in 2007, where only forty-four countries had implemented at least one tobacco control measure, protecting 1.2 billion people. Their implementation can be viewed through the new data portal, which tracks countries’ progress from 2007-2025.

155 countries have successfully implemented at least one control measure at the best-practice level, the highest marker of implementation. This protects up to 6.1 billion people, or about 75 percent of the global population. Additionally, countries with two or more measures have seen “a nearly tenfold increase,” from 11 to 107 countries, which protects 4.8 billion people. Forty of these countries have adopted two or more measures, while seven of them have implemented four measures, and four have adopted five of the MPOWER measures. Altogether, fifty-one countries have at least three of these measures in place, accounting for the protection of 1.8 billion people.

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General said, “Twenty years since the adoption of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, we have many successes to celebrate, but the tobacco industry continues to evolve and so must we.” He added, “By uniting science, policy, and political will, we can create a world where tobacco no longer claims lives, damages economies or steals futures. Together, we can end the tobacco epidemic.”

The report highlights that one practice — graphic health warnings and plain packaging — has made significant progress, with 56 percent of countries having reached ‘best-practice’ level. As one of the key measures under the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), it makes it difficult for people to ignore the health risks. It has been proven that cigarette packaging that contain graphic visual health warnings are effective in informing people about tobacco risks. They can be understood by people across all demographics and countries of all income levels.

Additionally, 110 countries at some levels have adopted these measures, accounting for approximately five billion people, or 62 percent of the world’s population. 36 percent of the global population now live in countries which run best-practice campaigns, which is up from 19 percent in 2022. WHO is urging countries to “invest in message-tested evaluated campaigns”.

Despite this, forty countries have zero MPOWER measures at the best-practice level. More than thirty countries allow the sale of cigarettes without mandatory health warnings. Even as many of the measures are being adopted, WHO notes that enforcement is “inconsistent”. Packaging for smokeless tobacco remains “poorly regulated”, as these items come in irregular packaging, are developed by smaller local producers, and may be found illegally produced and sold. These factors make it difficult to enforce packaging regulations. Furthermore, since 2022 at least 110 countries have failed to run anti-tobacco campaigns.

Many countries are failing to enact policies that would restrict access to cigarettes through taxation. Since 2022, only three counties have increased their taxes on tobacco at the best-practice level. Sixty-eight countries have adopted anti-tobacco media campaigns in the best practice, educating 25 percent globally. Additionally, cost-covered quitting services are accessible to about 33 percent of the world’s population.

While media campaigns and taxation policies target tobacco users, tobacco also affects people second hand. Around 1.6 million people die each year from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases exacerbated by exposure to second-hand smoke. To combat this, seventy-nine countries have implemented “comprehensive smoke-free environments,” which protects at least one-third of the global population. The regulation of e-cigarette devices or ENDS (Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems) has also begun to pick up traction. As of 2024, 133 countries are regulating or outright banning e-cigarette devices.

To account for the notable lags in progress and enforcement, Dr. Ruediger Krech, WHO Director of Health Promotion said, “Governments must act boldly to close remaining gaps, strengthen enforcement, and invest in the proven tools that save lives. WHO calls on all countries to accelerate progress on MPOWER and ensure that no one is left behind in the fight against tobacco.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

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