By Michelle Muschett and Sabina Alkire
NEW YORK, Aug 27 2025 – The development trajectory of Latin America and the Caribbean is going through a period of unprecedented vulnerability and uncertainty. The significant achievements of past decades, as well as the possibility of continuing to make progress, are under threat from the impact of growing geopolitical tensions, unresolved structural challenges, and an increase in crises of various kinds—environmental, political, health, technological, and social.

These challenges intertwine and reinforce each other, magnifying their impact and overwhelming the response capacity of institutions. Against this backdrop, a fundamental question arises: how can we protect the gains made in human development while continuing to move forward in this new reality?

The answer lies in the very essence of the concept of human development. Since its formulation by the authors of the first UNDP Human Development Report in 1990, economists Amartya Sen and Mahbub ul Haq, the focus of this concept has been on expanding people’s capabilities so that we can lead lives we value and find meaningful.

It is not just about income or material goods, but about health, education, participation, freedom, and dignity. But human development is not static and can suffer setbacks. To safeguard its progress in the face of recurring shocks and to continue expanding capabilities, it is essential to embed resilience as an unconditional requirement.

Beyond mere endurance

In the context of human development, resilience is not limited to enduring or withstanding sudden impacts, nor to restoring a previous state. It is the capacity and agency of human beings to live valuable lives in such a way that they can prevent or mitigate the impact of crises both in their own lives and those of their communities and, if necessary, recreate valuable lives and continue to thrive.

It means that people and communities can reorganize, adapt, and move forward, even—and especially—in the midst of adversity. A system is resilient not because it is immune to shocks, but because it knows how to respond effectively, learn from experience, and emerge stronger.

Just as a house is resilient if, even with modest materials, it withstands an earthquake, protects its inhabitants, and allows life to continue, a health system is resilient if, in the face of a pandemic and despite its limitations, it reorganizes resources, mobilizes staff, welcomes volunteers, requests and absorbs external aid, provides psychological support, recognizes collective effort, and leaves behind strengthened capacities for facing future emergencies.

The key is not to avoid all damage—that would be impossible—but to respond with purpose and to strengthen the system based on experience. In short, resilience is not improvised; it is built.

Agency, capabilities, and human security

Resilient human development rests on three fundamental pillars: capabilities, human security, and agency. Capabilities are the real opportunities people have to live a life they value: being healthy, learning, participating, working with dignity. Human security protects that essential core against persistent or sudden threats such as hunger, violence, natural disasters, or disease.

Agency, meanwhile, is the ability to act according to one’s own values. It is not only about feeling included and being able to choose, but about actively influencing one’s own life and environment: organizing, participating in public life, imagining alternatives even in the midst of crisis.

When people live in contexts of limited freedoms or insecurity—marked, for example, by violence, precariousness, or exclusion—their agency tends to weaken. We may withdraw, lose trust in others, become demobilized, or adopt extreme positions.

This is why a resilient vision of development cannot be limited to the material: it must also strengthen interpersonal trust and the sense of belonging—the emotional, relational, and civic fabric that allows us to act, decide, and rebuild.

An urgent approach for Latin America and the Caribbean

The need to incorporate resilience into human development is particularly pressing in Latin America and the Caribbean. Without a resilient perspective, each crisis can mean significant development losses.

Conversely, if development agents and actors integrate resilience into their management and actions, it is possible to prepare better collectively, minimize damage, and transform systems based on each experience.

From a public management perspective, this means, for example, that public policies anticipate risk contexts—such as designing and implementing education systems that can also function in emergencies; social protection systems that expand households’ capacity to cope with crises and that have pre-established mechanisms to extend benefits to those affected; or care systems that facilitate reintegration into the labor market.

It also means ensuring community support networks and mutual aid mechanisms and, above all, strengthening institutions and individual and collective capacities to anticipate, decide, act, and adapt.

Prioritizing the essential, even with scarce resources

Resilience in public policy requires investment, planning, and consensus around a long-term vision. But it does not always entail large budgetary efforts, even in fiscally constrained contexts. The key is to innovate and prioritize what is essential: identifying which capabilities must be protected at all costs, which services must be maintained even in times of crisis, and which bonds must be strengthened before they break. Innovation is not only technological—it is also social, institutional, and territorial. The region is already applying tools with great potential for scalability and impact to transform realities, expand capabilities, and create opportunities where there was once exclusion, such as innovative applications of the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) or inclusive financing instruments with local impact.

The resilience approach from a human development perspective means prioritizing strategically, making evidence-based decisions, and avoiding improvisation to ensure local impact and agency. Furthermore, by explicitly incorporating prevention, preparedness, and recovery into the development agenda and public budgets, the future costs of crises can be significantly reduced.

A compass of hope for uncertain times

Resilient human development protects and adapts the classic concept of human development to today’s challenges. It combines the transformative vision of development with the precaution of human security and the recognition of people as agents of their own destiny, even in the face of adversity.

In a world with fewer certainties, resilience is an ethical, practical, and hopeful compass. For Latin America and the Caribbean, it is also an opportunity—not to resign ourselves to permanent risk, but to turn each challenge into a springboard for more just and cohesive societies.

The future is not written; we build it together. Collective resilience must be at the heart of our responses: it is key to driving economic growth and shared prosperity; to fostering innovative financing and public policies that make it possible to prevent, mitigate, and rebuild lives after a crisis; and to broadening the sense of belonging, increasing human agency and security. Only through collaboration and collective action can we build valuable, dignified, and resilient development and life paths for all people.

Michelle Muschett is Regional Director, UNDP, Latin America and the Caribbean; Sabina Alkire is Director of the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at the University of Oxford

This blog is based on findings from the Regional Human Development Report 2025, “Under Pressure: Recalibrating the Future of Development in Latin America and the Caribbean” (coming soon).

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By Umar Manzoor Shah
BOGOTÁ and SRINAGAR, India, Aug 27 2025 – A report has warned that Colombia’s push to expand oil and gas exploration in the Amazon risks undermining environmental goals, Indigenous rights, and long-term economic stability, unless the government pivots toward sustainable development pathways.

The study, “Oil and Gas Expansion in the Colombian Amazon: Navigating Risks, Economics, and Pathways to a Sustainable Future”, lays out the stakes for one of the planet’s most biodiverse and climate-critical regions.

Colombia’s Amazon region, covering nearly one-third of the country, is not only a biodiversity hotspot but also home to hundreds of indigenous communities and vast carbon-storing forests. Yet beneath its soils lie oil and gas reserves that the government and industry see as potential drivers of energy security and economic growth.

According to the report released by Earth Insight, the International Institute of Sustainable Development (IISD), and the National Organisation of Indigenous Peoples of the Colombian Amazon (OPIAC), the national government has in recent years signalled openness to further exploration and production in the Amazon, despite its public commitments to environmental protection and the global push to decarbonise.

“The Colombian Amazon is at a crossroads. The decisions taken in the next few years will either lock in a path of fossil fuel dependency and ecosystem degradation or open the door to a sustainable, diversified economy,” reads the report.

Oil and gas operations in the Amazon, the report warns, could trigger cascading ecological consequences. Roads and seismic lines fragment forests; drilling operations risk oil spills; and increased human access often accelerates deforestation and wildlife loss. “Infrastructure associated with oil and gas projects tends to create long-lasting environmental footprints that extend far beyond the drilling sites themselves,” the authors claim.

The Amazon is already under stress from illegal mining, logging, and agricultural expansion. Adding industrial petroleum activity could push ecosystems toward tipping points, including irreversible shifts in forest cover and carbon balance.

Ignacio Arroniz Velasco, Senior Associate for Nature & Climate Diplomacy at Earth Insight, told IPS news that the Amazon is an integrated ecosystem. As of 2022, according to The Amazonia 80×2025 Initiative, preserving 80 percent of the Amazon by 2025 was still possible with urgent measures to safeguard the 74 percent (629 million hectares) of the Amazon that are Intact Key Priority Areas (33 percent) and with Low Degradation (41 percent); and restoring 6 percent (54 million hectares) of land with high degradation is vital to stop the current trend.

“Although still under threat from industrial expansion, ca. 80 percent of the Colombian Amazon is preserved; however, unless other Amazon countries do the same, the whole ecosystem could collapse. This would mean a shortage of food supplies, medicine (stable forest), and water (water productivity and headwaters). As well as the regulation of floods (aquatic systems) and areas with the highest carbon stock for climate stability,” Velasco told IPS.

Proponents argue that oil and gas projects could generate royalties, jobs, and infrastructure for remote areas. But the report questions whether these benefits outweigh the long-term costs. “Global demand for fossil fuels is projected to decline as the world accelerates toward net-zero emissions. New investments in oil and gas risk becoming stranded assets before they recoup their costs,” it warns.

According to Pablo Jamioy from OPIAC, enforcing environmental protections in the Colombian Amazon in the face of armed groups and illegal economies is a major challenge that cannot be addressed solely through repressive measures, as these tend to increase local tensions and negatively affect communities, especially indigenous peoples.

“The reality is that without first guaranteeing basic conditions for well-being—such as security, access to health services, education, and legal economic opportunities—and without strengthening local governance, particularly the leadership and territorial rights of indigenous peoples, any attempt at environmental control is likely to generate conflict and resistance.”

Jamioy told IPS that from a realistic perspective, a comprehensive, long-term strategy is needed that combines effective state presence with inclusive policies that respect and empower Amazonian communities. “Only in this way can illegal economies be discouraged and the influence of armed actors reduced without exacerbating social tensions,” he said, adding that in this sense, environmental protection necessarily involves strengthening local capacities, recognising the importance of indigenous knowledge systems in conservation, and promoting sustainable development models that link the care of nature with real improvements in living conditions in the region.

The authors stress that the volatility of oil prices and the finite nature of reserves make heavy dependence on fossil fuels a risky economic bet for Colombia. They also point out that historically, resource extraction in remote regions has delivered limited lasting benefits for local communities.

Beyond economics, the expansion raises deep concerns for indigenous peoples, who have constitutionally protected rights to their lands and resources. The report documents cases where extractive projects proceeded without adequate consultation, undermining the principle of consulta previa (prior consultation) required by Colombian law and International Labour Organization Convention 169. “Indigenous territories, when respected and supported, are among the most effective barriers to deforestation. Disregarding their rights for short-term gains would be both unjust and environmentally counterproductive,” the report notes.

Communities fear that oil and gas activity will disrupt traditional livelihoods, pollute rivers, and erode cultural heritage. Many have voiced opposition, warning that once exploration begins, social and environmental change becomes difficult to reverse.

Colombia has pledged to achieve net-zero deforestation by 2030 and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. Yet the licensing of new oil and gas blocks in the Amazon appears at odds with these goals.

Velasco said that Colombia has not issued new exploration licences under the current government. It has also lowered its deforestation rate to record low levels, although this latter trend was recently reversed. “Both achievements place Colombia at the very top of the world’s climate and environmental leaders. However, millions of hectares of the Colombian Amazon are still threatened by oil and gas blocks that have not been licensed to investors yet. These “available” blocks would allow future Colombian governments to undo all the hard-earned progress and issue new fossil fuel licenses in the Amazon.”

According to Velasco, to avoid this economic, social and ecological risk in the Amazon, the current Colombian government could choose to permanently remove the unlicensed blocks from its official records. He said that the report suggests different pathways to achieve this, such as via new national legislation, administrative acts grounded on Colombia’s international commitments, expanding natural protected areas or legally recognising more Indigenous territories.

The report identifies governance gaps, including insufficient enforcement of environmental safeguards, lack of transparent data on exploration plans, and inadequate inter-agency coordination. “Without coherent policy alignment, Colombia risks pursuing mutually incompatible objectives — expanding fossil fuel extraction while professing climate leadership,” the authors write.

The report goes beyond merely calling for a halt to oil and gas expansion by presenting concrete alternatives such as expanding renewable energy in non-Amazonian regions, investing in sustainable forest economies, and directing state resources toward rural development that aligns with conservation goals. Key recommendations include strengthening land tenure for indigenous and rural communities to improve forest stewardship, redirecting subsidies from fossil fuels to clean energy and low-impact livelihoods, enhancing environmental monitoring with community participation, and ensuring that all projects in indigenous territories prioritize free, prior, and informed consent.

Pablo Jamioy from OPIAC told IPS News that one of the fundamental mechanisms for strengthening free, prior, and informed consent in indigenous territories in Colombia is to guarantee the legal formalisation of territories requested for collective titling, as well as ancestral territories that have been subject to protection and recovery strategies from Amazonian indigenous peoples. These territories, according to Jamioy, must be recognised under special conservation categories and be subject to their own environmental governance systems. “In addition, it is necessary to implement and ensure the recognition and effective exercise of indigenous environmental authorities, in accordance with Decree 1275 of 2024, which recognises their environmental competencies to consolidate their own systems of administration and use of the territory based on ancestral knowledge.”

He added that it is essential to implement Decree 488 of 2025, “Which establishes the necessary fiscal regulations and others related to the functioning of indigenous territories and their coordination with other territorial entities,” a key regulation for the implementation of Indigenous Territorial Entities. “This decree strengthens their autonomy, both in the management of their systems of government and in dialogue with external actors for the implementation of public policies and the guarantee of the fundamental and collective rights of indigenous peoples.”

Colombia’s Amazon protection efforts receive significant funding from international donors, including Norway, Germany, and the United Kingdom, as well as multilateral initiatives like the Amazon Fund. The report urges these partners to condition future support on clear progress toward phasing out high-risk extractive activities in sensitive ecosystems. “International finance can catalyse progress, but it must be coupled with genuine political will and local participation to be effective,” the briefing states.

Industry representatives contend that modern drilling technologies can minimise environmental harm and that oil and gas revenues are essential for national development. They also argue that Colombia cannot yet afford to forgo these resources given fiscal pressures.

Environmental advocates counter that the country’s long-term prosperity depends on avoiding the boom-and-bust cycles of extractive industries and capitalising instead on its unparalleled natural capital.

The report has predicted that the coming years will see heightened legal, political, and grassroots battles over new oil and gas blocks in the Amazon.

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By Mario Osava
RIO DE JANEIRO, Aug 27 2025 – Brazil, which stands out for exporting basic products such as iron ore, oil, coffee, and soybeans, rather than industrialized goods with higher added value, now intends to make a shift regarding rare earths, a key component in new technologies that it has in abundance.

Brazil is the second country in reserves of this natural resource, estimated at 21 million tons, surpassed only by China, with 44 million tons, explained Julio Nery, director of Mining Affairs at the  Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram). Together, the two countries account for about two-thirds of the total.”The critical phase of processing which adds the most value is the separation of the rare earth elements, with high costs due to numerous and successive treatments, not so much because of the technology” –Fernando Landgraf.

But Brazil is only just beginning to exploit this wealth on a large scale, while China practically holds a monopoly on its refining, about 90% of the world total, to supply its own electronics industry, electric vehicles, wind turbines, and many other equipment, as well as the industry of almost the entire world.

Rare earths have become the new mining and technological fever, due to the accelerated growth in their demand and, now, due to the trade war unleashed by the United States under the presidency of Donald Trump.

China’s threat to condition the exports of its rare earth chemical elements forced Trump to backtrack on his escalation of additional tariffs against its biggest economic rival, which reached 145% in April, and to enter into negotiations that continue with the tariff reduced to 30%.

Rare earths get their name not because of their scarcity, as they exist in many places, but because of their physical properties, such as magnetism, which are indeed limited, explained Nery to IPS, by phone from Brasilia, about this sector comprised of 17 chemical elements that also have other unique properties such as electrochemical and luminescent ones.

Geopolitical disputes tend to accentuate a movement by many countries to reduce their dependence on China’s rare earths.

Launch of the MagBras project to develop the entire rare earth chain in Brazil, from mining to permanent magnets, key components of electric motors, wind turbines, and numerous electronic products, on July 14, 2025, at the laboratory and factory that will serve the project, near Belo Horizonte, the capital of the state of Minas Gerais. Credit: Sebastião Jacinto Junior / Fiemg

Adding value

In Brazil, an alliance of 38 companies, scientific institutions, and development foundations, driven by the Federation of Industries of the State of Minas Gerais (Fiemg), through its arm of the National Service for Industrial Training, aims to develop the entire rare earth chain, “from mining to the permanent magnet.”

That magnet, which contains four of the 17 rare earth chemical elements, is the derivative with the highest added value due to its now indispensable use in electric motors, cell phones, many electronic devices, wind turbines, and defense and space technologies.

This will be the focus of the project called MagBras, as the Industrial Demonstrator for the complete production cycle of Brazilian rare earth permanent magnets was named and officially launched on July 14 in Belo Horizonte, the capital of the state of Minas Gerais.

The goal is to unite industry with universities and research centers so that Brazil does not continue primarily as a major exporter of raw materials, without added value, as is the case with coffee, iron, oil, and soybeans.

Rare earth processing technology was developed decades ago in many countries, which abandoned the activity in the face of China’s low-cost production, recalled André Pimenta, who leads the project as coordinator of the Rare Earths Institute of Fiemg.

Some of the 17 chemical elements of rare earths, critical for the future and whose demand is projected to multiply 30 times in the coming decades. After China, Brazil is the second country with the largest estimated reserves of these rare earths, for which a geostrategic and geopolitical battle has already begun. Credit: Icog

Better deposits

In addition to having large ionic clay deposits, which have advantages over the rocky ones in other countries, the scale of production and the scant or non-existent environmental requirements contributed to China’s advance towards a near monopoly, he noted.

Brazil has similar areas of ionic clay, a factor that, with the advancement of technologies, favors the country’s potential to emerge as an alternative producer with the possibility to compete, even if it is “difficult or even impossible” to surpass China, acknowledged the chemist Pimenta in a telephone interview with IPS from Belo Horizonte.

MagBras has a laboratory in facilities originally designed for a factory with the capacity to produce 100 tons of magnets per year, the only one existing in the southern hemisphere, which will serve for research and even production on that limited scale.

Nery, from Ibram, warns of the risk of focusing on a single resource to the detriment of the set of critical minerals, which in addition to rare earths includes lithium, cobalt, nickel, among others. These are scarce products.

There was already enthusiasm for lithium, due to the increased demand for cell phone and electric vehicle batteries; a few years earlier the same thing happened with niobium, he recalls.

“Technologies change and alter priorities,” he warned. That is why it is necessary to define a policy to promote the 22 critical and strategic minerals, with defined and flexible priorities.

The production of electric cars in Brazil has gained momentum in 2025, which will increase the demand for magnets, intended to be manufactured in Brazil with the rare earths abundant in some regions of the country. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Set of factors

Furthermore, value-added projects require a broad view of the different factors that affect the entire chain. Adequate infrastructure, with good roads, availability of energy, and sufficient demand for the chosen products are indispensable for success, he exemplified.

“Do we have firm demand for permanent magnets? The products that incorporate them, such as batteries, electric car motors, and wind turbines, are currently imported,” Nery pointed out.

In his opinion, “the government must promote conditions to generate internal demand, in a general effort, since industrial participation in the Brazilian economy has greatly reduced in recent decades.”

Research centers have already developed solutions for refining rare earths, the most costly process, but doing it on an industrial scale will require a lot of investment and time, according to Nery, a mining engineer.

In mining, any project takes at least five years in geological research, environmental licensing procedures, and operational preparation, he noted.

Brazil, which in the past sought rare earths in monazite, which is unfavorable because it contains radioactive material, now concentrates its extraction on ionic clay, which is better. “Its deposits are superficial, which facilitates research and limits environmental impacts,” he pointed out.

A concrete experience with this type of soil is that of Serra Verde, a company owned by two US investment funds and one British fund, with a plant in Minaçu, in the state of Goiás, in central-western Brazil.

It began operations in 2024 and has already exported US$7.5 million to China this year, according to Nery. It produces the oxide concentrate, a first step in processing, which enriches and increases the rare earth content index in the clay, which in the soil is only 0.12%, according to Serra Verde.

A positive note is that its concentrate contains the most in-demand elements because they are used to make permanent magnets: the light ones neodymium and praseodymium, in addition to the heavy ones dysprosium and terbium. The heavy ones are rarer and less present in rocky or monazite deposits.

But Serra Verde’s goal of producing 5,000 tons of concentrate per year and doubling that amount by 2030 seems distant. In the first half of 2025, it only exported 480 tons, it was revealed, as the company does not disclose its data.

Also in the state of Goiás, the current Brazilian epicenter of rare earths, another project, the Carina Module, by the Canadian company Aclara Resources, expects to extract mainly dysprosium and terbium starting in 2026, with investments of US$600 million.

“The critical phase of processing and the one that adds the most value is the separation of the rare earth elements, with high costs due to numerous and successive treatments, not so much because of the technology,” said Fernando Landgraf, an engineer and professor at the Polytechnic School of the University of São Paulo.

One kilogram of neodymium oxide, present in these heavy rare earths, is worth at least 10 times more than the five dollars for a kilogram of concentrate, he said by telephone from São Paulo.

Mining company Serra Verde, in Minaçu, state of Goiás, where the extraction of rare earths began, which, in an initial processing, were concentrated and exported to China. They contain four of the 17 rare earth elements used to produce permanent magnets, key components of electric motors, wind turbines, and military and space equipment. Credit: Serra Verde

The threat of uncertainty

In his assessment, “the biggest risk of the business is the uncertainty about the future,” especially now that rare earths have become a target and a weapon of geopolitics.

The demand for rare earths will grow significantly, but a large increase in production in the United States could lead to an oversupply. It is a limited market, far from the volumes of other minerals, such as iron ore.

“Uncertainty does not justify sitting idly by. Demand will grow, and the movement to reduce dependence began earlier, during the pandemic, which left many without essential respirators and medical equipment because there was nowhere to import from. It is a one-way street,” stated Pimenta.

Geologist Nilson Botelho, a professor at the University of Brasilia, considers the estimate of Brazil’s reserves to be reliable. Mining in Goiás is successful because it contains heavy rare earths, the “most critical” ones, which are among the “four or five most valuable elements.”

But there are many deposits in other parts of Brazil. In addition to the geological formation of its very extensive territory of over 8.5 million square kilometers, the temperate tropical climate, rainfall that infiltrates the soil, and the high plateau favor the presence of rare earths, he explained to IPS from Brasilia.

Another geologist, Silas Gonçalves, opposes the idea that mining in ionic clay has fewer environmental impacts.

Mining there alters the landscape and the soil, causes deforestation and diffuse damage, such as changes and contamination of the water table. These are different impacts, not lesser ones, he argued to IPS from Goiânia, the capital of Goiás, where he runs his geological and environmental studies company, called Gemma.