By Jomo Kwame Sundaram and Nadia Malyanah Azman
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Jul 29 2025 – US President Trump has successfully used tariff threats to achieve economic, political and even personal goals. These threats, reminiscent of colonialism, have secured submission and concessions.

Jomo Kwame Sundaram

<strongIndonesian lessons
After hearing the 2024 US elections, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto respectfully stood up in his Jakarta office to call to congratulate the winner.

Trump bragged about his tariff offer to Indonesia in mid-July 2025, flattering its president profusely. After hesitating initially, former General Prabowo had agreed to join BRICS, despite Trump’s clear disapproval.

“I spoke to their really great president, very popular, very strong, smart. And we made the deal. We will pay no tariffs…they are giving us access to Indonesia … the other part is they are going to pay 19% and we are going to pay nothing.”

An Indian commentator noted, “Those words say it all. This deal is clearly one-sided, and it should bother the whole world.” Americans, not Indonesians, will pay tariffs on imports from Indonesia.

The US is Indonesia’s second-largest export market, importing apparel, palm oil, footwear, and cosmetics. Initially, Trump had threatened a 32% tariff on such imports.

This has been reduced to 19%, still almost four times more than last year! In 2024, Indonesian exports to the US were taxed at 5% on average. The Indonesian president has not complained but instead seemed relieved.

Nadia Malyanah Azman

Indonesia will lose not only exports, but also growth and jobs. As Trump loves to brag, he added insult to injury as he could not resist reiterating: “They will pay 19%, and we will pay nothing.”

Guaranteed sales
Indonesia will also buy $15 billion of US oil and gas, $4.5 billion of farm produce, and 50 Boeing jets. But the 2019 Lion Air plane tragedy, which the US plane manufacturer quickly blamed on Indonesian pilots, is still alive in the national memory.

Boeing’s reputation worldwide has not recovered from the investigation into the Nairobi air crash involving the same plane model, which led to its grounding.

Indonesia is among the US’s top 25 trade partners. The deal secures American access to the Indonesian market, allowing US goods to be sold tariff-free.

Last year, Indonesia shipped $28 billion worth of goods to the US. Higher tariffs are now expected to cut Indonesian exports by a quarter, GDP growth by 0.3%, and many jobs!

Other Southeast Asian lessons?
The Philippines’ Marcos II government is the most pro-US in Southeast (SE) Asia, hosting 11 American military bases.

Yet it was the only one without a US tariff offer before Secretary of State Rubio’s SE Asian visit earlier this month. The Philippines has since been offered a new US trade deal with the same 19% tariff rate despite its loyalty to Washington.

Loyal long-term support for the US, 11 military bases and serving as an additional ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ just south of Taiwan did not secure a better trade deal for the other archipelagic nation in SE Asia.

Trump wants trade deals even more favourable to the US than existing ones. With deadlines passing, the US is expected to announce more trade deals.

The tariff threats have been more effective for Trump, thanks to decades of trade liberalisation forced on the Global South, undermining earlier import-substituting industrialisation and food security measures.

Washington has already revised earlier demands, sometimes not just once, but typically to the chagrin of US trade partners. Vietnam’s Communist Party leader was initially thought to have negotiated a better deal than other SE Asian governments.

Lessons for others?
Will the US offer to Indonesia become a template for others? Or even for countries of comparable significance in the world economy? Nobody knows Trump’s strategy, let alone how it may still change.

Perhaps it begins with the threat of high tariffs, shock and awe. Then, a less painful deal is offered, dressed up as a concession.

This may be worse than the status quo ante, but it still seems preferable to the original threat. Nations will also be required to buy US goods that may not be needed or offer the best value for money.

Thus, US offers to SE Asia are being studied worldwide for lessons on better negotiating with Washington. Meanwhile, the US refuses to negotiate collectively except with the European Union.

All over the world, policymakers will continue to debate Trump’s tariff war strategy after Monday’s agreement in Scotland, which included a 15% baseline tariff on most EU exports to the US.

The US-EU deal makes clear the West, including Europe, has never really been committed to a rules-based international order, including multilateral trade liberalisation.

As American buyers pay the tariffs, imported goods become more expensive. US trading partners will lose exports, related growth and jobs. This will mean less expansion, employment and exports worldwide, accelerating stagnation.

Meanwhile, most SE Asian governments believe they have little choice but to continue negotiating with the US, which is driving them to others willing to engage them on more favourable, if not fairer, terms.

IPS UN Bureau

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By Stephanie Hodge
NEW YORK, Jul 29 2025 – In Geneva, nearly 600 UN staff based at the UN Office there held an Extraordinary Staff Union meeting on July 24, 2025, passing a unanimous motion of no confidence in the UN80 reform initiative, the Secretary General António Guterres, and Under Secretary General Guy Ryder—with no abstentions and no dissenting voices (source).

Meanwhile, Gaza is being flattened. The war has become the deadliest ever for UN personnel: over 200 UNRWA staff have been killed since October 2023 (UNRWA). At Least 116 Staff Members of United Nations Palestine Refugee Agency Killed in 2024, Bringing Total to 263 Staff Fatalities Since War in Gaza – UN Staff Union Committee – Question of Palestine

Aid starvation is mounting. UN agencies warn Gaza faces mass starvation, with children visibly wasting away and some aid workers joining food lines themselves (Amnesty International). Reports describe scenes of “walking corpses” due to critical shortages of food, water, and medicine (The Times).

As mass starvation spreads across Gaza, our colleagues and those we serve are wasting away – Amnesty International ‘Walking corpses’ haunt Gaza streets: UN says children dying of starvation, India urges emergency relief – The Economic Times

Despite the conditions, famine has not been officially declared—due to access constraints and the politicization of humanitarian data (Associated Press). Experts say Gaza is at risk of famine but haven’t declared one. Here’s why. | AP News

Meanwhile, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) confirms collapse of health and water services, especially in Rafah (OCHA Flash Update #165). Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel | Flash Update #165 | United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs – Occupied Palestinian Territory

Enter UN80, a sweeping internal reform launched in mid 2025 to mark the UN’s 80th anniversary. Promoted under the veneer of “modernization” and “efficiency,” the plan cuts junior-level positions, consolidates decision-making in the Secretary-General’s office, and accelerates centralization—without transparent evaluation of previous reform cycles or external oversight (IPI Commentary). UN80 and the Reckoning Ahead: Can Structural Reform Deliver Real Change? – IPI Global Observatory

The UN’s own Joint Inspection Unit (JIU) warned in its 2023 report that widespread use of affiliate workers and non-staff consultants had undermined accountability. In earlier reports, the JIU criticized prior reforms for concentrating authority without improving transparency or including field voices. JIU/REP/2023/8

This is not a system in crisis—it’s a system functioning as designed: to protect reputation, manage political risk, and suppress the dissent of its own workforce. It prioritizes control over service, and branding over substance.

Meanwhile, global crises—from Ukraine to Sudan—are exposing the UN’s deepening credibility crisis. A 2022 High-Level Committee on Management (HLCM) report recognized growing internal distrust and institutional fatigue (UN CEB HLCM Report). Microsoft Word – 2211281E.docx

So, what now?

We need truth-tellers inside the system. Staff who document abuses. Analysts who refuse to whitewash data. Leaders who resist sanitizing the truth to please donors. These are the ones who can restore integrity to institutions that have lost their compass.

There is a moral precedent in the figure of Job. He did not suffer because he failed, but because he refused to lie. In the face of collapse, he remained grounded in truth. That refusal—not obedience—is what sustained him.

Not every fight is winnable. But silence?

That’s not an option.

As Martin Luther King Jr. said: “In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.”

If the UN is to survive the 21st century, it must retake its soul. That begins with truth. Not PR. Not spin. Truth that costs something.

Stephanie Hodge is an international evaluator and former UN advisor who has worked across 140 countries. She is a former staffer of UNDP 1994-1996 & 1999- 2004 and UNICEF 2008-2014. She writes on governance, multilateral reform, and climate equity.

IPS UN Bureau

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By Naomi Myint Breuer
UNITED NATIONS, Jul 29 2025 – In Myanmar, airstrikes occur almost daily. The phenomenon has become common since civil war broke out following the 2021 military coup that replaced the democratically elected National League for Democracy (NLD) with the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military. Several human rights organizations report that these airstrikes are disproportionately targeting civilians and harming lives.

The Tatmadaw uses airstrikes to fight armed resistance groups, such as the People’s Defense Forces (PDF), and regain control of areas from these groups, who control about 42 percent of the country’s territory, according to a BBC investigation published December 19, 2024.

After the March 28 earthquake, the Myanmar military and other groups involved declared a ceasefire, but attacks continued. Myanmar Witness reported 80 airstrikes occurred between March 28 and April 24, including in emergency-declared areas.

The Karen Human Rights Group reports that airstrikes are part of a broader attack on civilians in the country. Human rights groups and the UN found that the military disproportionately targets civilians with not only bombs but also mass executions of detained people and large-scale burning of homes.

Spokesman for the UN Secretary-General Stéphane Dujarric said these strikes are part of a pattern of attacks across the country.

“There are frequent reports of people being killed, injured or displaced by violence—as well as increasing attacks on civilian infrastructure,” he said at a July 16 press briefing.

Recent airstrikes, such as a July 11 strike on a monastery in Lin Ta Lu village, which killed 23 and injured 30, have redrawn attention to the country’s ongoing conflict. The Lin Ta Lu attack came weeks after the military began an offensive to reclaim territories controlled by resistance groups.

Public and religious sites have become targets. Myanmar Witness, a Centre for Information Resilience project investigating human rights in Myanmar, reported a trend of military operations hitting large civilian gatherings, with 109 cases of airstrikes damaging religious sites in 2024. A wedding held in a monastery in Magway Region was bombed on Feb. 25 after an invitation was posted on social media. They estimate that 11 people were killed.

“These trends highlight that religious and cultural sites are becoming increasingly at risk of complete destruction as a result of internal conflict in the country,” Myanmar Witness reported.

Dozens of schools have also been attacked, resulting in deaths and injuries of children. Many children have stopped attending school due to safety concerns. An aerial attack on a school in Oe Htein Kwin village in the Sagaing region on May 12 killed around 20 students and wounded dozens.

A Karen Education and Culture Department (KECD) school principal told the Karen Human Rights Group that all four of the school’s buildings were destroyed by bombs in a March 23, 2024 airstrike in a village in Doo Tha Htoo District. The cost of rebuilding is expensive, and they did not know whether anyone would be able to help rebuild it.

“I am sad to see the destruction of my school and worry that children will not be able to go to school…” the principal said. “I do not know how to describe my feelings of extreme fear. My whole heart breaks when I see the destroyed school. I cannot do anything now.”

Yadanar Maung, spokesperson for Justice For Myanmar, an activist group, accused international governments and corporations that fund, arm and train the Tatmadaw of empowering the military’s violent actions.

“The Myanmar military’s escalating violence against civilians, including through the intensification of airstrikes that target children, is not happening in a vacuum,” Maung told IPS.

Maung praised Airbus’ recent divestment from AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited due to its links to the violence in Myanmar.

“Others must follow,” Maung said. “Governments must also act with stronger targeted sanctions on the military, its businesses, cronies and partners.”

The UN’s Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar is investigating whether the Tatmadaw’s actions can be classified as crimes against humanity. The Mechanism called for information on aerial attacks for its investigation. They are prioritizing investigating attacks on children.

“Airstrikes that are indiscriminate or which target civilians may be war crimes or crimes against humanity,” the Mechanism wrote.

The airstrikes make it difficult for the UN to deliver humanitarian assistance to people in need. Currently, one in three people in Myanmar face acute hunger, according to Dujarric.

“We urgently, and once again, call on all parties to respect human rights and international humanitarian law,” he said.

Myanmar receives far less attention than other regions undergoing conflict and distress. Without the same level of attention, the war cannot end and the humanitarian situation will not be alleviated. Myanmar Witness said that it is important to continue reporting on the situation in Myanmar so as to keep other nations updated. They said the situation is complex and can be difficult for foreigners to understand.

“The international community isn’t as aware of this continuing internal conflict due to other important conflicts taking media attention, particularly in Western news outlets,” Myanmar Witness wrote to IPS. “It is important to continuously push to get news about Myanmar out to the international community as much as we can.”

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By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Jul 28 2025 – Earlier this month, Sudanese civilians began facing a considerable escalation of hostilities, with the most recent attacks from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) claiming dozens of lives. Amid a rapidly growing scale of needs and an overwhelming lack of funding, the United Nations (UN) and its partners have struggled to deliver adequate amounts of humanitarian aid.

On July 23, the RSF coordinated an attack on the Brima Rashid area in West Kordofan State, with combatants entering on assault vehicles and indiscriminately firing at homes and a market. According to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), this attack killed over 30 people and severely injured 40 others, with a significant amount of these casualties being women and young children.

“Medical sources say many of the wounded need urgent surgical care,” said Farhan Haq, the UN Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General at a press briefing. “OCHA stresses that events in Brima Rashid underscore the growing risks facing civilians in the Kordofan region and the urgent need for a cessation of hostilities, protection of civilians, and safe, sustained access to humanitarian assistance and services.”

This is just the latest in a series of attacks that have marked a sharp rise in violence across the Kordofan and North Darfur regions. Between July 10 and 13, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a series of attacks on North Kordofan’s Bara locality. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR) estimates that these attacks resulted in 60 civilian deaths, while figures from independent civil society groups estimate up to 300 deaths.

Concurrently, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched a series of attacks on the Al Fula and Abu Zabad villages in West Kordofan State, including an airstrike on a school that was being used as a makeshift displacement shelter, killing over 20 people. On July 17, the SAF also targeted a family in an airstrike in Bara, killing at least 11 civilians. Additional attacks and civilian casualties were recorded in El Fasher and the Abu Shouk camp.

“An escalation of hostilities in North Darfur and Kordofan will only further aggravate the already severe risks to civilians and the dire humanitarian situation in a conflict that has already wrought untold suffering on the Sudanese people,” said the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk. “I urge those with influence to act to prevent such an escalation, and to ensure that both parties uphold their obligations under international law, including on the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure.”

According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), as of July 14 there have been over 3,400 internal displacements as a result of the recent attacks in North Kordofan. These numbers were further inflamed by a period of heavy rain and flooding from July 14 and 15, resulting in 400 additional displacements.

The majority of these displaced individuals are currently residing with host communities and face a dire lack of access to basic services, such as food, water, shelter, and healthcare. The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that approximately 30 million people are in dire need of humanitarian assistance and protection, which is roughly half of Sudan’s population.

Conditions are particularly dire in the Tawila locality of North Darfur, which currently hosts over 560,000 internally displaced civilians. OCHA’s partners report that a significant amount of water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) needs are not being met, as there is a critically low ratio of one latrine for every 150 people. Humanitarian experts have expressed concern due to the rising cases of cholera in Tawila. According to figures from Sudan’s Health Ministry, there have been over 1,300 cases of cholera and 18 related deaths recorded across 35 localities, with 519 of these cases being recorded in Tawila alone.

Additionally, Sudan’s hunger crisis has taken a considerable turn for the worse in recent weeks, with food prices having skyrocketed immensely. According to OCHA, South Darfur had been hit particularly hard, with flooding cutting off critical supply routes from Chad and the north of Sudan. Over the course of a month, the price of wheat has risen by 31 percent and the price of sugar has risen by 21 percent, pushing these essential items out of reach for thousands.

Figures from the World Food Programme (WFP) show that famine has been confirmed in 10 states across Sudan, with nearly half of the population facing extreme levels of hunger. OCHA projects that women are disproportionately impacted by the hunger crisis, with rates of food insecurity among female-headed households nearly doubling from 14 percent in 2024 to 26 percent in 2025.

The persistence of widespread hunger and disease across Sudan is a testament to Sudan’s fragile healthcare system. According to OCHA, heightened insecurity has resulted in the closures of over 32 health facilities in Sudan. The centers that are still functional face a critical shortage of essential supplies such as vaccines, medication, and surgical equipment. It is estimated that thousands lack access to life-saving care.

On July 25, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and IOM released a joint report that analyzed the conditions facing Sudanese refugees who had returned home after fleeing to Egypt and South Sudan. According to the report, roughly 320,000 refugees had returned to Sudan throughout the past year, with many struggling to access basic services .

“Without urgent action, people will be coming back to cities that are in ruins,” said Abdallah Al Dardari, Director of the Regional Bureau for Arab States in the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). “We are in a race against time to clear the rubble and provide water, power and healthcare.”

The report underscores the vast array of dangers that await Sudanese returnees, including the risk of injury or death from unexploded ordnance, high rates of gender-based and sexual violence toward women and girls, as well as a lack of psychosocial support services for traumatized individuals.

The UN and its partners remain hopeful that the current influx of returnees is an indication of stabilization in Sudan. “Those heading home are not passive survivors. They are vital to Sudan’s recovery,” said Othman Belbeisi, IOM Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa. “Yes, the humanitarian situation is dire, but with the right support, returnees can revive local economies, restore community life and foster hope where it’s needed most”.

Despite this, increased funding for humanitarian affairs and a sustainable end to hostilities is the only way to ensure lasting peace and stability in Sudan. The UN projects that approximately USD 4.2 billion dollars is needed to keep up aid operations in Sudan for the next year. However, only 23 percent of the required funds have been met, indicating that services may need to be scaled back next year.

“More than evidence of people’s desire to return to their homeland, these returns are a desperate call for an end to the war so that people can come back and rebuild their lives,” said Mamadou Dian Balde, UNHCR Regional Refugee Coordinator for the Sudan crisis, shortly after returning from Khartoum and Wadi Halfa at the border with Egypt. “Not only do they mark a hopeful but fragile shift, they also indicate already stretched host countries under increasing strain. We urge stronger international solidarity with the Sudanese people uprooted by this horrifying war and with the countries that have opened their doors to them.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

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By Maximilian Malawista
NEW YORK, Jul 28 2025 – Two-thirds of the developing world, or ninety-five out of 143 economies, are dependent on commodities for export value, making up 60 percent of their merchandise exports. For the least developed world, this number rises to 80 percent, leaving entire nation’s revenue vulnerable to price swings, fiscal shocks, and evolving trade compositions. Hidden behind the numbers lies a deeper transformation, one disrupting fossil fuel trade, triggering a higher reliance on mineral exports, particularly on mining essential for green technologies.

In 2024, during a special climate panel, on critical energy transition minerals, UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarked, “A world powered by renewables is a world hungry for critical minerals. For developing countries, critical minerals are a critical opportunity – to create jobs, diversify economies, and dramatically boost revenues. But only if they are managed properly.”

Guterres signaled a clear message that this change can indeed boost economies and create jobs, especially in the places which need it most, but only if those countries are then willing to invest in diversification strategies through proper economic management.

At this year’s UN High Level Political Forum Guterres reaffirmed his stance on July 22, stating: “Fossil fuels are outdated. The sun is rising on a new era − the era of clean energy.” Guterres present a six-point action plan forward, which would phase out fossil fuels and secure energy access to all, by outlining methods of financing green transition.

A shift in the tides: oil to ore

Between 2012-2014 and 2021-2023, the share of commodity exports in of global trade have slightly declined, from 35.5 percent to 32.7 percent. At the same time, overall merchandise trade grew by 25.6 percent, with commodity exports growing by 15.5 percent. This 10 percent gap accounts for a 619 billion dollar shortfall due to declining and stagnating energy exports, which currently dominate the commodity trade.

Energy exports once led the commodity trade but are now showing obvious signs of stagnation and future decline. From 2021 to 2023, global energy exports amounted to 3.16 trillion on average, slightly decreasing 1.3 percent from the 2012-2014. The acceleration of renewable energy projects and the UN’s 2030 Agenda have been main proponents in this, driving down the reliance on oil and coal, and improving energy efficiency through global investment in green technologies.

Western Asia, once a dominant region in energy exports, particularly oil, saw its share fall from 31.3 percent to 24.7 percent over the past decade. Russia, once the world’s top energy exporter saw its export value drop by 26.6 percent.

However, in this same period, the United States became the world’s leading energy exporter, driven by its massive quantities of liquefied natural gas and shale oil mining. This shift too even reflects a greener transition, as liquefied natural gas is seen increasingly as a bridge to clean energy, as it presents cleaner effects on the environment, and is overall considered cleaner than oil and coal by a large margin.

In contrast to this overall decline in energy demand, mining exports have been surging. In Asia and Oceania, the regions’ share grew from 33.8 percent to 37.6 percent. Looking at Australia alone, they grew their mining export value from USD 105.7 billion to USD 171 billion due to higher demand from China and other global consumers for metals like copper, cobalt, and lithium. These materials are necessary for solar panels, wind turbines and electric car batteries, which are all considered essential components to a green economy.

Suppliers of the green future: Africa

While much of the world is expanding looking towards the future, Africa is still largely behind in development, creating lags in green agendas. Most of the continent lacks basic access to electricity. Africa is home to twenty of the world’s thirty-three mining export-dependent economies, making them the provider of many materials for green technologies, but not the constructors.

In Western and Eastern Africa, these mining exports make up 65 percent and 57 percent of all merchandise exports. Southern Africa is also particularly reliant, with nations like Botswana presenting mining exports of 91.5 percent. This lack of diversification makes African economies extremely vulnerable to supply chain shifts and price volatility, especially in the event of value chain swaps. Even in countries where mining is not as prevalent like Nigeria, Algeria and Angola, the lowering of oil prices by 20 percent in economies with an 80 percent export value on energy, shows early signs of dangerous fiscal dependency on a lacking financial flow.

The inevitable shift

Secretary-General of UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Rebecca Grynspan said: “There is now an opportunity to leverage these new commodities to update our trade regime, promote structural diversification and turn the tide of commodity dependence once and for all.”

The clean energy shift is not theory, it is happening real time and its reshaping supply chains fast. Countries like the U.S. and Australia have successfully adapted their economies to this shift, preparing for a new landscape of green domination. The rise in mining exports supports a demand from advanced economies needing critical minerals, but this financial flow for the exporting countries might not stay forever, especially if more competitors break into the market driving down the price further and further: much like what is happening to oil. A country’s path to clean energy now lies as an indicator of working economic models and the ablution of outdated financial flows.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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