By Ed Holt
BRATISLAVA, Feb 24 2026 – “We have a saying here in Ukraine now – ‘young people meet at their friends’ funerals rather than at weddings.’ It’s sad, but very true.”

As Russia’s full-scale invasion of her country moves into its fifth year, Iryna Yakova, 29, is looking back at how her life has changed over the past four years.

Speaking from Lviv, the western Ukrainian city where she lives, she tells IPS that her “values and attitude towards life” have changed. “Material things become unimportant when your loved ones or friends are in danger,” she says. She has also developed a keen sense of her national identity and an empathy for the suffering of her fellow Ukrainians.

“During the full-scale invasion, I realised that all of Ukraine is my home. I cry for people who were killed by a missile in Kyiv while they were sleeping at night. Even though I didn’t know them, it hurts me because they are Ukrainians. It also pains me to see children growing up without their parents because their parents are at the front. The war has intensified my sense of empathy and belonging.”

Her mental health has suffered. She says anxiety is ever-present in her life.

But what she returns to often as she answers questions about how her life is today compared to before the war is the loss she, and others, have experienced.

“What I miss most [from my life before the full-scale invasion] are the people who have been killed in the war. I have lost friends, acquaintances, and relatives. Nothing compares to human loss. The hardest thing I have had to deal with during this war is going to the funerals of friends — people you used to go to parties with, travel with, study with,” she says.

The human cost of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been enormous – Ukraine’s government does not officially give figures for military casualties, but it has been estimated they could be up to 600,000 (Russian military casualties are thought to be more than twice that amount).

But the scale of civilian casualties has been huge, too. According to UN bodies, more than 15,000 civilians have been killed and over 41,000 injured in Ukraine since the start of the invasion on February 24, 2022.

Worryingly, as Ukraine marks the fourth anniversary of the start of the war, research suggests there has been a sharp increase in civilian casualties over the last year.

Data from Action on Armed Violence (AOAV), released earlier this month, showed civilian casualties in Ukraine increased by 26 percent in 2025 compared with 2024, despite there being a 6 percent drop in the number of injurious explosive weapon incidents recorded nationwide.

In Kyiv, response efforts continue amid attacks on energy infrastructure and severe cold. The Ukrainian Red Cross is supporting warming centres around the clock, providing people with a safe place to warm up, receive assistance, and feel cared for during difficult conditions. Credit: Red Cross

The group said its data showed a worrying shift in the character of the conflict – the average number of civilians killed or injured per incident in Ukraine rose 33 percent over the year, with a total of 2,248 civilians reported killed (an 11 percent rise) and 12,493 injured (a 28 percent rise) by explosive violence.

This suggests that explosive weapons are being used by Russia in Ukraine in ways that generate greater civilian impact, whether through more drone strikes, heavier munitions, specific targeting choices of populated areas, or repeated strikes on urban infrastructure, the group said.

Nearly seven in ten civilian casualties recorded in AOAV data occurred in residential neighbourhoods, up from just over four in ten in 2024.

Niamh Gillen, a researcher at AOAV, told IPS it was impossible to definitively say that Russian forces were deliberately targeting Ukrainian civilians, but that “the data speaks for itself.”

“It shows that civilian areas are being attacked, that the attacks are occurring within civilian areas like hospitals, schools, cities, towns. In general, in areas where civilians are heavily concentrated, like cities and towns, villages, anywhere like that, if you’re using an explosive weapon with wide area impacts, then you’re likely to harm more civilians,” she said.

On top of the deaths and destruction Russian attacks have caused, they have also led to massive displacement. It is thought that at least 3.4 million people are internally displaced in the country. This has put massive pressure not just on the displaced themselves, but also on host communities and services.

People’s physical health has deteriorated in such conditions – the World Health Organisation (WHO) has said that more than two-thirds of the population have reported a worsening of their health since the start of the invasion.

But the harm caused by these attacks is far from just physical. Mental health professionals in the country, as well as international bodies including the WHO, have warned of a mental health crisis in Ukraine, with possibly up to 10 million people suffering with mental health problems.

IPS spoke to scores of people in cities and towns across Ukraine about how the war had affected their mental health. Many spoke of experiencing anxiety, sometimes permanently to some level, which could be intensified at any moment by the frequent sound of air raid sirens warning of an attack, or for those closer to frontlines, the sounds of explosions and bombings.

“What affects my mental health on a daily basis are the constant nighttime drone and missile attacks. Because of them, it is impossible to relax or get proper rest, as reaching a shelter for safety is essential, even at night,” Mihail*, a teenager who lives in the Kyiv region, told IPS.

The situation for many Ukrainians has acutely worsened this winter. In what has been one of the coldest winters the country has seen for many years, Russian forces have repeatedly attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, resulting in massive, widespread power outages. Thermal heating facilities have also been destroyed in targeted attacks.

As temperatures have plunged to as low as minus 30 degrees Celsius on some occasions, millions of people have been left freezing in their homes.

Jamie Wah, Deputy Head of Delegation with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) in Ukraine, said people were suffering desperately in the cold.

“Some nights have been very unbearable. There is no escape from the cold. When you leave your apartment, it’s cold. Sometimes people have been joking that it’s warmer inside a fridge than inside their apartment. I’ve been here for over four years now, and it’s been the worst winter,” she told IPS.

Humanitarian organisations, including the Ukrainian Red Cross, and state emergency services have set up emergency heating points in cities and towns where people can keep warm, recharge devices and get food.

But Wah said while this has become a humanitarian crisis, it is one of just many crises Ukrainians are battling.

“In frontline regions, there are communities that are under evacuation orders, and some communities have essentially had most of their resources cut off. Family ties are quite strained – mental health needs are also immense, not only in the frontline regions but across Ukraine,” she said.

“There are lots of repairs to homes that are needed, not to mention the energy crisis, which is a humanitarian crisis… with no heating and no electricity, just the day-to-day things – just even heating your food becomes a problem. A lot of families are having to spend more time outside their homes, having to spend more money. On top of that, the cost of living has increased. These are some of the real, tangible situations that people in Ukraine are facing now,” she added.

Amid these problems, many Ukrainians admit that they are exhausted after four years of war.

But among the many people IPS spoke to on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the war, there was a widespread, although certainly not universal, determination to not give up.

“I feel a sense of responsibility. I do not have the right to give up, because many people have died so that I could have the chance to live. Of course, there is exhaustion, but, unlike those in the military, a civilian like me has time to rest and reset,” said Iryna.

For many, such resilience is born out of a desire not just for them and their country to survive what they see as Russia’s attempt to destroy them as an independent state and nation, but also a hope that, ultimately, there will be some justice served for what has been done to them.

The Russian military and authorities have repeatedly been accused of war crimes, crimes against humanity, breaches of international humanitarian law, as well as genocide, during the invasion of Ukraine.

The sheer volume of alleged crimes – at least 180,000 war crimes have been registered by Ukraine’s Prosecutor General – and the constraints of documenting, investigating and prosecuting during an ongoing conflict mean that bringing those behind them to justice was never expected to be easy. Only over 100 people have been prosecuted in Ukraine so far for crimes during the invasion.

But there are fears that international bodies such as the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has issued an arrest warrant for, among others, Russian President Vladimir Putin over alleged war crimes, could be rendered increasingly toothless in their ability to ever prosecute major figures who ordered such crimes because world leaders, such as US President Donald Trump, are no longer interested in upholding international justice for war crimes.

“I truly hope that the war will end very soon and that all war criminals will be brought to justice. However, what I see happening right now is the opposite: while institutions like the UN are unable to punish Russia, people are starting to forget about its war crimes. Countries are gradually lifting sanctions,” said Mihail.

“For example, Russian athletes are going to be able to take part in the Paralympics this year. As a result, people who committed war crimes just months or years ago can now take part in one of the world’s biggest sporting events. So we need to act – by refusing to normalise aggression, keeping sanctions firm and, most importantly, remembering about war.”

Others, though, are more hopeful.

“There is no doubt among Ukrainians that war criminals can be brought to justice,” Oleh Martynenko, an expert at the Ukrainian NGO Center for Civil Liberties, which documents war crimes, told IPS.

“This is evidenced by the participation of Ukrainians in international missions and courts where war criminals have been convicted. Also, thanks to the European Union, Ukrainians are building their own criminal prosecution systems, which provide for the arrest and imprisonment of Russian war criminals in accordance with UN international standards,” he said.

Regardless of these concerns and the other problems Ukrainians are facing as the full-scale invasion goes into its fifth year, some are looking to the future with a degree of hope.

“I feel a mix of determination, resilience, anger, and hope of victory,” Tetiana, a nurse in the Dnipropetrovsk region, who asked not to be identified for security reasons, told IPS. “Glory to Ukraine!” she added.

*Name changed to protect identity.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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By Kester Kenn Klomegah
MOSCOW, Feb 24 2026 – Despite consistent criticisms over its operations down the years, Russia still finds it difficult to leave the World Trade Organization (WTO), and instead assessing the opportunities and broad benefits of membership. WTO is not just an organization, but a multilateral bridge for strategic trade engagement and securing results-oriented partnerships. Certainly, unlocking and accelerating trade initiatives should be the key focus in the changing world.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk underscored the importance of the work of the WTO, which regulates global trade, further suggested optimizing its operations. Some experts believe the WTO has effectively been paralyzed due to conditions created by the current geopolitical shifts from United States power dominance and its tariffs policy, to the emerging multipolar architecture.

In his view, this reason is driving the current changes as well as “the desire of specific countries, business groups, and companies to establish control, including over deposits of critical minerals, and new transport and logistics routes that ensure the delivery of resources and goods necessary for the functioning of economies.”

“Because whoever succeeds in doing this will secure a leadership position in the world with a new socio-economic order, and, consequently, will create better conditions for the emergence of new enterprises, new jobs, new sources of income for individuals and legal entities, new sources of budget revenue, and, ultimately, of course, a better standard of living for their own population,” Overchuk said, at the forum “Architecture of the Future: Russian Business in Key Multilateral Platforms.”

In his opinion, sanctions, tariff and non-tariff restrictions are playing an increasingly important role in international economic relations, and Western countries are using instruments of unfair competition. Experts believe that Russia has not received substantial economic benefits from its WTO membership.

Now, the world is moving away from globalization altogether, with many countries introducing ever more restrictive measures based solely on their own interests, disregarding international rules.

Experts agree that the WTO crisis is part of a broader process of transformation of the global economy. In a mid-February Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Pavel Seleznev, faculty dean at the Russian Financial University, pointed to the “erosion of international law” and the transition to a model based on “might makes right” and bilateral agreements. According to him, the world is shifting away from multilateral mechanisms toward agreements concluded outside the framework of international institutions.

Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Customs Policy Council Chairman, Georgy Petrov, however described what is happening as a “phase change”: classical globalization is giving way to regionalization, where trade flows and rules are concentrated within macro-regions and political decisions become the basis of economic policy, rather than the other way around.

In practice, this manifests as a sharp increase in restrictive measures. Dmitry Krasnov, managing director of the Rexoft Consulting Competence Center in Agriculture, also noted that participants in international trade are increasingly introducing unilateral steps that contradict established multilateral rules.

Meanwhile, the assessment of Russia’s WTO membership remains mixed. According to Krasnov, the organization provided “leverage for predictability”: multilateral commitments on tariff and non-tariff policies created a clear framework for the state and businesses, reduced arbitrary barriers, and provided opportunities for arbitration.

Petrov recalled that “the main tariff positions were fixed,” and entrepreneurs understood the limits of rate changes. This made customs and tariff policy more stable.

The reduction in tariffs provided for in the accession terms also had a dual effect. In Russia, some industries faced increased competition due to reduced protectionism upon accession to the WTO. According to Petrov, many manufacturers felt the need to produce higher-quality, more competitive products, which was a positive development.

Pavel Seleznev, faculty dean at the Russian Financial University, on the other hand, believes that Russia has not gained any significant economic benefits from its membership. However, even in the current situation, maintaining its membership status allows Russia to continue engaging in dialogue and expressing its views, even with unfriendly countries.

Russia remains the member of the WTO and views its norms as fair and useful but the issue of keeping membership in conditions of sanctions pressure is not a simple one, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, on February 11, in the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament.

Moscow believes it is necessary to revive the WTO as the sole recognized regulator of multilateral trade. “The issue is difficult and is under control with us and with the economic bloc of the government,” Lavrov said. “The WTO is experiencing crisis at present, just as the Bretton-Woods System on the whole,” he noted.

WTO principles and norms “are clearly established in agreements governing our trade relations with the overwhelming majority of countries of the world, including the global majority countries accounting for more than 70% of the Russian trade turnover,” the top Russian diplomat said. “One more circumstance that cannot be ignored is that the entire legal system of the Eurasian Economic Union rests on these WTO norms,” he noted.

The G20 Summit held on November 22-23 in Johannesburg, at the initiative of South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, the joint declaration which was adopted, called for major reforms and stabilization of the global economy in 2026. “We recognize that meaningful, necessary and comprehensive reform of the WTO is essential to improve its functions so that it is better suited to advance all Members’ objectives,” the declaration read.

At the same time, G20 leaders emphasized its importance as an instrument for resolving trade disputes between countries. “We will strive to ensure that the benefits of trade reach all segments of society and that all people have the opportunity to benefit from trade,” the document reads.

In summary, the collective declaration advocated also for the swift implementation of the agreements reached within G20 to strengthen the role of countries from the Global South and East in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), taking into account their real weight in global economy. It is also important to revive the WTO as the sole recognized regulator of multilateral trade.

Russia joined the WTO in April 2011 after almost 18 years of persistent struggle and several negotiations, and adopting consistent efforts to meet the stringent membership requirements. It is the only international body now supervising world trade.

WTO has 153 members, and negotiations on the admission of a new member are held within a working group that unites countries that have unsettled trade problems with the candidate. It was established on January 1, 1995, as the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) that had been operating since 1947.

Kester Kenn Klomegah focuses on current geopolitical changes, foreign relations and economic development-related questions in Africa with external countries. Most of his well-resourced articles are reprinted in several reputable foreign media.

IPS UN Bureau

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