By Joyce Chimbi
Nairobi, Jul 25 2022 – The swish of calm waters followed by unexpectedly high tides and violent waves is now too familiar for the fisher community along Kenya’s 1,420-kilometer Indian Ocean coastline.

“When a very dark cloud hovers around the ocean, it is a signal that it is very angry, releasing very strong waves from its very depth. When this happens, the ocean will only calm down by taking a life. Fishermen are killed by sudden strong waves every year,” Aisha Mumina, a resident of Makongeni village in Kilifi County, tells IPS.

But even during such high tides, Mwanamvua Kassim Zara, a local fish trader, says the stock has significantly declined. Before, high tides meant more fish because they would run to the safety of thick mangrove roots for shelter, feeding and breeding.

Today, she says, fishers can no longer cast their net beyond the coral reef and expect a harvest. Even the popular Dagaa, a tiny silver fish and a most preferred delicacy in Vanga Bay in Kwale County with a population of over 8,700 households, has all but disappeared.

“I buy a bucket of fish from the fishermen at 40 to 45 US dollars, up from 20 to 25 US dollars. The high prices are then transferred to our customers who buy one kilogram of boiled, dried and salted fish at 3 US dollars up from 2 US dollars,” she tells IPS.

Kassim considered diversifying into rice farming, but even that presents a new set of challenges. While the tides are not sweeping fish to the shores and into the fishers’ nets, the high tides flood adjacent rice farms. This makes it impossible to access the farms, leading to the destruction of crops.

Kassim Zara says the fish population is on the rise in tandem with mangrove conservation and restoration efforts in Jimbo village, Kwale County. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

In Jimbo village, she says parents were afraid to send their children to Jimbo Early Childhood Education (ECD). In high tides, water from the adjacent Indian Ocean would flood the school, putting the lives of children at risk.

But Kassim says a promising community-led, community-driven initiative is progressively addressing their most pressing climate change-related concerns. This hope is to restore mangroves and unleash their hidden superpowers to store three to five times more carbon than terrestrial forests.

Once dismissed as dirty and swampy wetlands, the maze of lush green mangroves lining meandering water channels along Kenya’s coastline were extensively encroached upon, degraded and mangrove trees felled at a rate of 0.5 % per year from 1991 to 2016, according to the Kenya Forest Services (KFS).

Relying on indigenous knowledge, indigenous ethnic groups along Kenya’s coastline, including the Digo, Duruma, Shirazi, Wapemba and Wagunga people, discovered that the more they cut down mangroves for firewood, building material, fishing equipment and trade, the more fish disappeared. With these changes came higher and more powerful waves and floods.

“Even as various fish species such as milkfish, mullet fish and octopus slowly disappeared and fishermen could no longer cast their nets past the coral reef and catch a prawn, crab or other shellfish, it took time to see the connection,” Harith Mohamed Suleiman, a member of Kwale’s Vanga Bay indigenous communities tells IPS.

The ongoing soft engineering efforts to restore mangroves on the shorelines of Kwale’s Vanga Bay area. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

Mangroves are the first line of defence against Indian Ocean-related catastrophes. Mangrove roots provide fish with feeding and breeding grounds. They enable close to all fishing activities to be carried out along shallow inshore areas within and adjacent to the mangroves, according to the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI).

“It took us many years to understand that mangroves are the breeding and nursery grounds for many fish species around here. By losing mangroves, we were losing our lifeline. We make money from fishing, tourism, bird watching, beekeeping and honey from mangrove forests is unique and valuable,” Suleiman expounds.

Oscar Kiptoo, a conservationist and researcher at KFS, says mangroves are government reserve forests under KFS either singly or in partnership with the Kenya Wildlife Service when mangroves grow in marine parks and reserves. The total mangrove cover in this East African nation, he says, is approximately 61,271 hectares.

Lamu County has 37,350 hectares, Kilifi 8,536 hectares, Kwale 8,354 hectares and 3,260 hectares in Tana River. Mombasa has 3,771 hectares of mangroves distributed along Port Reitz and Tudor Creeks.

An estimated 1,850 hectares of Mombasa County’s mangrove cover are degraded, with more than 1,480 hectares destruction reported in Tudor Creek, mainly because mangrove wood is resistant to rot and insects and therefore highly valuable for building material.

Suleiman explains how three adjacent villages in Kwale County formed the Vanga Jimbo Kiwengu (VAJIKI) Community Forest Association to restore, conserve and protect mangroves voluntarily.

Suleiman, the chair of VAJIKI, says the initiative was inspired by Gazi and Makongeni villages in Kilifi County. These communities pioneered the first of its kind carbon offset project in the world to successfully traded mangrove carbon credits. They worked under the Mikoko Pamoja Community group with support from the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI).

Ongoing soft engineering efforts to restore mangroves on the shorelines of Kwale’s Vanga Bay area. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

Kassim, from the VAJIKI community, says the community initially did not succeed because they lacked knowledge about mangrove species and zoning. There are mangroves for the shoreline and those that do best on the mainland.

“Since 2016, educated people from the government have been teaching us how to plant and protect mangroves. They tell us mangroves are the roots of the ocean, the same way that a tree cannot grow without trees, so it is with the ocean. We cannot benefit from the ocean if we destroy mangroves. We learn how to use mangroves as a wall around the ocean to protect us from high tides, and we see the fruits of our work,” Kassim says.

Suleiman agrees, adding that the VAJIKI project is a 460 hectares mangrove initiative officially launched in 2019. He says 450 hectares (1,112 acres) will be conserved, protected, and allowed to rejuvenate naturally. The remaining 10 (25 acres) will be reforested over two decades.

Out of the 450 hectares (1,112 acres), he says 250 hectares (618 acres) are on the mainland and at significant risk of continued over-exploitation, and another 200 hectares (494 acres) are on the uninhabited Sii Island. Although unexploited, mangroves on Sii Island are at significant risk from loggers.

Suleiman says the VAJIKI community is committed to ensuring that the island remains free from all human activity, including illegal fishing and dynamite use. According to KFS, approximately 250 fish and 124 coral species are protected by the Sii Island mangroves.

“The VAJIKI community is in talks with government representatives to pioneer a transboundary mangrove conservation and restoration initiative that will start from Mombasa, through Kwale County and into Tanzania. We are in close proximity with other indigenous communities on the Tanzania side of the border. We have no language or cultural barriers,” he says.

Suleiman says they have learnt mangrove seedlings have a higher survival rate when prepared for planting in a seed nursery. Mangrove seedlings will have been collected in the expansive mangrove forest, packed in sacks, soaked in salty or marine water and stored for planting for six months. At least 100 community members volunteer for the exercise on seed planting days.

Mangrove seeds are seasonal, and their availability throughout the year varies from species to species. For instance, Ceriops Tagal seeds are available in February and March, Rhizophora mucronata seeds are available in March and June, and Avicennia marina seeds are available in April and May.

The VAJIKI community plants at least 3,000 seedlings of mangroves annually and targets to sell carbon credit worth 48,713 US dollars per year by accumulating 5,023 tons of carbon above ground. Their records show that the 2020/21 period brought carbon credits worth 44,433 US dollars.

This is where a private developer had once built a hotel on the shores of Vanga Bay in Kwale County, leading to significant deforestation of mangroves. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

Suleiman says the VAJIKI Community sells above-ground carbon calculated using direct measurements of mangrove biomass. Kiptoo says these measurements are taken using traditionally established forest inventory techniques.

He says the process entails collecting tree measurements, including height, crown area or wood density, and diameter at breast height within the designated plots. These measurements, he says, are then used “as an input to the allometric equation, also known as biomass estimation equations, to provide biomass estimates.”

Suleiman says these calculations require technical know-how. The VAJIKI community relies on the Association for Coastal Ecosystem Services (ACES), a charity registered in Scotland, to coordinate the entire process, including the actual carbon trading, because they have access to viable international markets.

“Women in Kiwengu village delivered at home or in other villages because Kiwengu Dispensary did not have a maternity (ward). But we bought a bed using the money, and women are safe to deliver at the dispensary. Our children can go to nursery school because we built a barrier to prevent floods from entering the school. Rice farming is possible now because the floods have reduced in the last two years,” Kassim says.

In Makongeni Kilifi County, Naima Juma says her nine-year-old daughter was accosted and nearly assaulted on her way to fetch water; “we used to walk for two kilometres looking for freshwater because our waters are too salty. But now everyone in the village has water close to their homes through communal taps or own household taps.”

Providing clean water to the community, improved health care, sanitation, education and infrastructure to the benefit of Juma and 4,500 community members was made possible through the Mikoko Pamoja (mangroves together) initiative.

Records show the Mikoko Pamoja community-based group has 117 acres of mangrove plantation, restoring the degraded shorelines of Gazi bay by planting approximately 2,000 seedlings annually and another 2,000 on the mainland. The project captures an estimated 2,000 tons of carbon below and above ground. Records show the project currently earns at least 25,000 US dollars annually from carbon trading.

“Our community leaders and chiefs usually invite us to a meeting to discuss how the money should be spent. We usually choose projects that benefit all of us,” Juma tells IPS.

Community initiatives, Suleiman says, are so strong that a private developer who once destroyed acres of mangroves to build a beach hotel and restaurant just meters away from the shoreline demolished the facility due to community resistance. Other developers similarly deforested large chunks of mangroves to build salt pans – the projects have since been terminated.

Kiptoo says ongoing community-led initiatives are hitting all the right targets as they are a win for climate, biodiversity and communities.

Due to ongoing community-based and community-led initiatives, he says the country is successfully halting the degradation and deforestation of mangroves.

The dense mangrove forested area on the Tanzania side of the border. On the Kenyan side, communities are leading mangrove restoration efforts. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

Keeping with the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) to adopt the International Day for the Conservation of the Mangrove Ecosystem proclamation marked annually on July 26, between 2019 and 2022, KFS says over 16.7 million mangroves seedlings have been planted.

Suleiman says community-led initiatives are not without their fair share of challenges. “A lack of understanding of various mangrove species available and where they grow best is the main problem as there are species that thrive on the mainland and others along the shoreline.

“A lack of knowledge on planting methods, either through a nursery or simply picking a seedling and directly sticking it in the ground, issues of seedling spacing, and all these factors affect the survival rate. VAJIKI started planting seedlings years ago, but until recently, when we started interacting with scientists, the survival rate was only 10 percent.”

He encourages coastal communities to partner with scientists and the government because with an increased understanding of mangroves, the survival rate will improve. Other benefits will follow – like increased carbon dioxide trapped in mangroves and money earned from carbon trading that can be used to support community projects. All these significantly improve lives.

Kassim says her beloved Dagaa, a staple in the Vanga bay community, is slowly returning to the shores and within reach of fishers. She says business is booming and that fish prices would have already gone down if it were not for ongoing inflation and the fuel cost.

This feature was reported with support from Internews’ Earth Journalism Network.

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By Benoit Thierry
DAKAR, Senegal, Jul 25 2022 – The current Ukraine-Russia conflict is dominating the global media to the point of overshadowing longer protracted crisis that no longer make headlines, but are still rife. Such is the case with the on-going Sahel crisis, one of the world’s most neglected ones, where acute poverty, the dramatic effects of climate change and rising armed conflicts have become the norm for more than a decade. A situation further exacerbated by the on-going COVID-19 pandemic.

Benoit Thierry

The Sahel region, known for its nomadic herders and resilient agriculture systems, spans 6000 km across a dozen of countries south of the Sahara desert, which include Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Chad for a population of approximately 150 million. They share a common geography, a similar climate and way of life, but they are also among the poorest countries in the world, ranking last in the Human Development Index. According to the UN Refugee Agency, the region counts more than 4.6 million people who have lost their home today, including 2.7 million people who are internally displaced and running away from conflict and drought. They no longer have a livelihood and need to rely on humanitarian aid for their survival.

However, as vital as it is, humanitarian aid cannot provide a long-term solution. More coordinated responses that address the underlying causes of the crisis are required. For this reason, the three UN agencies specialised in food and agriculture, namely the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP), have joined forces with the G5 Sahel, the regional organisation established in 2014 by the five most affected Sahel countries. Together and with the participation of Senegal, they have launched a US$180 million programme to improve the livelihoods and economic means of rural producers in the region and scale up successful pilot activities. Through it, a common approach is implemented, capitalizing on rural development work of past decades, particularly in supporting farmers and herders’ associations.

At IFAD we have a long experience working with rural producers in the region, however, until now, we tended to implement programmes nationally, in agreement with national governments. Currently, IFAD is financing 20 programmes and projects in G5 Sahel countries plus Senegal for a total of US$1 billion.

With the existence of regional Sahel organisations, we can now focus our efforts at regional level, knowing that many of the issues cut across national borders, and work in partnership with all the governments and international agencies concerned. This is for the benefit of the poorest, which is the purpose of the joint Sahel programme, known as the Regional Joint Programme Sahel in Response to the Challenges of COVID-19, Conflict and Climate Change (SD3C). In addition to financing, IFAD is contributing its long experience in implementing agricultural projects at local level, FAO is bringing its in-depth knowledge and research in agriculture, and WFP its expertise working in conflict areas.

An estimated 25 million people in the Sahel are nomadic pastoralists who are increasingly more desperate to find grazing areas for their cattle herds because of the effect of climate change. As they expand grazing areas into farming land, conflicts with sedentary farmers are on the rise leading to a decline in food production, when at the same time the population is increasing. According to UN forecast, population in the Sahel should more than double to 330 million people by 2050. How will they eat if the issue of food production and productivity is not addressed today through agriculture investment and adequate planning?

The programme looks to increase food production and yields through climate-resilient agricultural practices, a key aspect in a region where 80 percent of agriculture is estimated to be affected by climate change. With climate experts forecasting temperatures in the region, currently averaging 35 degrees Celsius, to rise by at least 3 degrees by 2050, there is even more urgency to implement climate resilient measures today.

Beyond the key issue of agriculture, the programme is also focussing on promoting cross-border trade and transactions and peace building at community level. Women, who typically have limited access to land and finance, are making up to 50 per cent of the programme’s participants. About 40 per cent are young people, who face high rates of unemployment and receive help in launching productive activities to create jobs and generate decent incomes. Landless people and transhumant pastoralists also benefit. The overall strategy is designed to meet the challenges of emergency, development and peace following a rapid intervention approach based on the scaling up of existing and efficient responses and approaches. Under implementation since 2021, the program will continue up to 2027 and expand to other countries in the Sahel region.

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Excerpt:

Benoit Thierry, is Sahel Office Director of International Fund for Agriculture Development, Dakar

By Alexander Müller, Adam Prakash and Elena Lazutkaite
BERLIN / TERNI, Italy, Jul 25 2022 – A growing mountain of data and analysis points to an unprecedented global crisis in the making, due to the convergence of “Four Cs” (Conflict, Covid, Climate and Costs).

As most recently highlighted at the recent UN High-Level Political Forum on the Sustainable Development Goals (HLPF), the intersection of poverty, climate vulnerability and geopolitical dynamics could unleash the worst humanitarian crisis in recent memory.

Why is this crisis different?

All food crises are intrinsically linked to spikes in fossil fuel prices. Recent episodes (such as the food price crises of 2007-2009 and 2012) display several common characteristics: increased demand for biofuels as an alternative energy source; and the diversion of massive amounts of food grains to intensive, and unsustainable livestock sectors in countries with an already high and unhealthy consumption of animal protein.

However, until now, severe impacts on food availability have been avoided thanks to favourable weather conditions that have helped to quickly restore market equilibria.
Not this time.

While the root of the current crisis is strongly linked to incessant pressure on food systems to deliver energy and meat, high fertilizer prices mean that production costs are outpacing farmgate prices of food, discouraging farmers from maintaining or increasing production.

This adds yet another layer of complexity to the “perfect storm” that has already been gathering. Covid-19 looms large over the ability of supply chains to deliver food. Conflict (Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) has siphoned-off enormous amounts of food destined for international markets as well as driving up the price of crude oil, which is highly influential in determining prices of fertilizer – the critical input in global agri-food value chains.

(Note: On July 22, The United Nations, Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine signed an agreement in Istanbul aimed at delivering Ukrainian grain to world markets. The deal was the result of months of negotiations as world food prices skyrocketed amid increasing grain shortages connected to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres heralded the agreement as a major diplomatic breakthrough. “Today there is a beacon on the Black Sea. A beacon of hope—a beacon of possibility, a beacon of relief—in a world that needs it more than ever.”)

Due to our energy-hungry and inefficient food systems, over seven units of fossil fuel energy are required to produce one unit of food – from farm to retail.

Adding to the complexity of these developments is the accelerated impact of the climate crisis on global agriculture. The upshot is that the world is facing record food costs in 2022.

These “Four Cs” are instigating a scenario that could be more severe than anything we’ve seen in the past five decades, mirroring the hunger crisis of the 1970s in which millions perished from hunger.

Moreover, overall prospects for a global bumper grain crop are increasingly dim. Recent satellite surveillance shows that excessive dryness and heat stress could lead to a five million tonne shortfall in the EU wheat harvest and a combined eight million tonne contraction of wheat output in the US and India.

This adds to uncertainty about continued blockage of wheat supplies from Ukraine, which had a pre-conflict capacity of storing 60 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds.

One hopeful sign is that Ukraine has begun shipping small but increasing quantities of food via land routes, with significant volumes also passing through the Danube River. Several international initiatives are also underway to unblock supply chains and compensate for storage infrastructure destroyed by Russia.

These include US support for new silos along the border with Romania and Poland, and Turkey’s offer to help reinstate Ukraine’s exports from the Black Sea. However, any delays to these initiatives could force many Ukrainian farmers into bankruptcy, jeopardizing global food security for years to come.

Can we crisis-proof our food systems?

The war in Ukraine has thrown into sharp focus – yet again – to just how vulnerable our energy and food systems are to shocks, including geopolitical tensions. Dependence on a few countries for energy and fertilizer needs, poses exceptional and unacceptable risks.

Faced with severe food shortages, many countries will undoubtedly turn to Russia, which is set for an excellent food harvest this season, raising prospects of “weaponizing grain” in retaliation against sanctions.

Behind the geopolitics of blockades on Ukrainian grain is an untold story of a fragile, overly-centralized global food system, constructed and promoted by the richer nations and their corporations, that was already vulnerable to shocks long before the tanks rolled in.

Added to these continuing uncertainties, is the increasing impact of climate extremes to global food production. Once largely associated with the African region, drought is wreaking havoc to food systems around the world. A record-breaking drought reordered plantings in the United States, heat stress in India has led to a reported 10-35 percent decline in crop yields with more heatwaves predicted prompting a ban on the country’s wheat exports, with restrictions on food shipments instigated by another 34 countries.

Devastating heatwaves and the worst drought in 70 years are also being felt in northern regions of Italy driving up prices by as much as 50% , while the Horn of Africa is being ravaged by the worst drought in four decades. With only one percent of arable land equipped for irrigation in the region, the longer-term prognosis for strengthening climate resilience is disturbing, to say the least.

Unfortunately, the global response so far has largely taken the same laissez faire approach that was proposed in the wake of previous crises. In Einstein’s words, it is tantamount to “doing the same thing(s) over and over again and expecting different results.”

To achieve the fundamental reform needed, our food systems need to be set on a transformative pathway, necessitating the redesign around intertwined action.

Restoring sanity

It would be wishful thinking to expect that the world will ever be free of multiple crises. The question, therefore, is how to construct a more resilient global food system to shocks from wherever they might arise.

In the short-term, emergency measures are needed to safeguard access to food for those who are hardest hit from high food prices. Moratoriums on the biofuel and livestock feed sectors would free up sufficient quantities of grain to avoid a hunger crisis. Food stocks, where abundant, should also be released to ensure that the most at risk have affordable and open access to food.

A communiqué issued at the close of the recent G7 Summit in Germany unveiled plans to boost fertilizer production and promote the supply of organic fertilizers. G7 leaders also encouraged the release of food from stockpiles and agreed not to introduce any new public subsidies for fossil fuel sectors, even as they called for additional temporary investment in the natural gas industry to mitigate current supply shortages.

In parallel to these emergency measures, we urgently need to embark a more resilient pathway in the medium- to long-term. Even were the war in Ukraine to end tomorrow and supply chains to return to “normal” we must shift the current paradigm of dependency on climate-destroying mineral fertilizers. We must make hard choices to wean ourselves off conventional monocultural agriculture towards more diverse, localized and ecosystem-sensitive food systems.

Science tells us that nitrogen-based fertilizers derived from fossil fuels, can contribute to 40 percent of cereal yields. Continuing to depend on fertilizer supplies from a few countries is therefore tantamount to holding nearly 8 billion people to ransom.

It is increasingly clear that to avert the impact of such geopolitics, policy makers must make serious attempts to delink world food security from fossil fuel-based and climate-destroying inputs. Incentivizing inexpensive and readily available and proven technologies – such as agroforestry and other agroecological practices – boosts soil health, improves the availability of nutritious food, and strengthens climate resilience.

Repurposing a mere fraction of current perverse subsidises for the fossil fuel sector, which amount to an astounding US$ 7 trillion per year, is a critical step towards enabling such a transformation.

Ultimately, however, we need to value our food systems differently by including their total footprint on human health and the environment. Ignoring the “true cost” of food production has led to a focus on cheap and non-nutritious food that is linked to the global obesity pandemic and a greater risk of zoonotic disease spillovers.

The benefits of such a True Cost Accounting (TCA) approach would be manifold: a reduction in food waste, a far more productive and sustainable agricultural sector that respects our natural capital, and a sense of realism in achieving greenhouse gas targets under the Paris Agreement.

Dismantling the 4 Cs

Decoupling the world’s food systems from fossil fuel-based inputs would be a major step forward in solving long-term global hunger. A necessary first step towards such transformation is to design pathways in which the global north shares its food stockpiles instead of diverting grains to fuel cars and promoting unsustainable livestock production.

Such repurposing requires immediate investment in renewable energy and the manufacture of bio-fertilizers. Organic fertilizers are integral to the circular economy, which is an increasingly important model for planetary sustainability.

Equally, the overuse of mineral fertilizers needs to be addressed, especially given their role in creating additional input demand, which in turn leads to higher prices, while compounding environmental degradation.

While the G7 Leaders’ communiqué is a refreshing breakaway from tradition, the world still has much to learn from history. The world was ill-prepared in the 1970s, the 2000s as well as today. Arguably, solutions to fix increasingly complex and intertwined food systems are difficult.

Vested interests, a lack of governance and a system of economic accounting that undervalues our natural and societal capital are challenges under which transformation of our food systems needs to happen. This task is by no means underestimated, but bold action is needed to ensure food systems become more crisis-proof.

As an emergency step, prioritizing food for people “over all else” would build up trust especially between developing regions in need and the G7. And trust is also a very scarce resource in the world of today.

Alexander Müller is Managing Director (based in Berlin), Adam Prakash is Research Associate (based in the UK), Elena Lazutkaite is Research Associate (based in Berlin)

Töpfer Müller Gaßner, a Think Tank for Sustainability, based in Berlin.

About TMG
TMG Research gGmbH is a Berlin-based research organization with an African regional hub in Nairobi and projects across several countries in Africa. Together with partners at the local, national and international levels, TMG explores transformative solutions for entrenched sustainability challenges, with a focus on four thematic clusters: Food Systems, Land Governance, Nature-Based Solutions and Urban Futures.

IPS UN Bureau

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