By Alison Kentish
SAINT LUCIA, Oct 26 2023 – Melting mountain glaciers. Unbearable heat. An uninsurable future. Space debris. Groundwater depletion. Accelerating extinctions. The United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security said this week that these six environmental “tipping points” can have “irreversible, catastrophic impacts for people and the planet.”

The University released its 2023 Interconnected Disaster Risks Report on October 25. It states that climate change and human behavior are among the drivers of these tipping points.

“Human actions are behind this rapid and fundamental change to the planet. We are introducing new risks and amplifying existing ones by indiscriminately extracting our water resources, damaging nature and biodiversity, polluting both Earth and space and destroying our tools and options to deal with disaster risk,” it stated. 

In terms of accelerated extinction, it states that the current species extinction rate dire – at as much as hundreds of times higher than usual due to human action.

It says the life-saving resource groundwater, which is stored in reserves known as “aquifers,” is a source of water for over 2 billion people and is used overwhelmingly (around 70%) in the agriculture sector. It adds, however, that 21 of the world’s 37 major aquifers are being used “faster than they can be replenished.”

In terms of space debris, while satellites make life easier for humanity, including providing vital information for early warning systems, only about one-quarter of the objects identified in orbit are working satellites. This means that satellites critical for weather monitoring and information are at risk of colliding with discarded metal, broken satellites, and other debris.

According to the report, climate change and increasing extreme weather events have resulted in skyrocketing insurance prices in some parts of the world. The report warns that rising coverage costs could mean an uninsurable future for many.

Another tipping point, unbearable heat, is a cause for major concern. The report states that, “currently, around 30 percent of the global population is exposed to deadly climate conditions for at least 20 days per year, and this number could rise to over 70 percent by 2100.”

And a warming earth is resulting in glaciers melting at twice the speed of the last two decades.

Report authors say the six risk areas of concern are interconnected, which means that going beyond the brink of any tipping point would heighten the risk and severity of others.

“If we look at the case of space debris, it has to do with the practice of putting satellites into our orbit without regard for handling the debris that comes as a result. At present we are tracking around 34,000 objects in our orbit and only a quarter of these are active satellites. We’re planning thousands more launches in the coming years. We may reach a point where it gets so crowded in our orbit that one collision can create enough debris to set off a chain reaction of collisions that could destroy our space infrastructure entirely,” said Dr. Jack O’Connor, Senior Scientist at UNU-EHS and Lead Author of the Interconnected Disaster Risks report.

“We use satellites every day to monitor our world. For example, we observe weather patterns that can give us data to generate early warnings. We sometimes take these warnings for granted, but can you imagine if we pass this space debris tipping point and we are no longer able to observe weather patterns? Now a storm is coming to a populated area, and we can’t see it coming,” he said.

While the report is sobering, its authors are quick to point out that there is hope. Lead Author Dr Zita Sebesvari suggests using the tipping points’ interconnectivity as an advantage for finding solutions.

“These tipping points share certain root causes and drivers. Climate change is cutting across at least four out of the six points. Therefore, decisive climate action and cutting our emissions can help to slow down or even prevent; accelerating extinction, unbearable heat, uninsurable future, and mounting glacier melting,” she said.

The report was published just one month before the United Nations Climate Conference (COP28). Dr O’Connor says the report can be instructive for policymakers.

“I think the report is connected to the COP process. Reducing our emissions is key, and we will need to integrate this with other contributing factors such as global biodiversity loss.”

The authors say passing these tipping points is not inevitable. They say the points are meant to spur action, to adequately plan for future risks, and to tackle the root causes of these serious issues.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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By Mariela Jara
LIMA, Oct 26 2023 – The lack of water is so severe in Peru’s highlands that farming families are forced to sell their livestock because they cannot feed them. “There is no grass or fodder to feed them,” says Fermina Quispe, a Quechua farmer from a rural community located at 4,200 meters above sea level.

Llarapi Chico, the name of her community, belongs to the district of Arapa in the southern Andean department of Puno, one of the 14 that the government declared in emergency on Oct. 23 due to the water deficit caused by the combined impacts of climate change and the El Niño phenomenon.”Our great-great-grandparents harvested water, made terraces and dams; we have only been harvesting, collecting and using. But it won’t be like that anymore and we are taking advantage of the streams so the water won’t be lost. We only hope that the wind does not carry away the rain clouds.” — Fermina Quispe

Arapa is home to 9,600 people in its district capital and villages, most of whom are Quechua indigenous people, as in other districts of the Puna highlands.

With a projected population of more than 1.2 million inhabitants, less than four percent of the estimated national population of over 33 million, Puno has high levels of poverty and extreme poverty, especially in rural areas.

According to official figures, in 2022 the poverty rate in the department stood at 43 percent, compared to 40 percent and 46 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively – years marked by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The recession of the Peruvian economy could drive up the poverty rate this year.

In addition, Puno was shaken by the impunity surrounding nearly 20 deaths during the social protests that broke out in December 2022 demanding the resignation of interim President Dina Boluarte, who succeeded President Pedro Castillo, currently on trial for attempting to “breach the constitutional order”.

The United Nations issued a report on Oct. 19 stating that human rights violations were committed during the crackdown on the protests, one of whose epicenters was Puno.

Fermina Quispe is president of the Women’s Association of Huerto de Nueva Esperanza, which is made up of 22 women farmers who, like her, are getting involved in agroecological vegetable production with the support of the non-governmental organization Cedepas Centro.

The 41-year-old community leader spoke to IPS in Chosica, on the outskirts of Lima, while she participated in the Encuentro Feminismos Diversos por el Buen Vivir (Meeting of Diverse Feminisms for Good Living), held Oct. 13-15.

With a soft voice and a face lit up with a permanent smile, Quispe shared her life story, which was full of difficulties that far from breaking her down have strengthened her spirit and will, and have helped her to face challenges such as food security.

Pumps fueled by 180-watt solar panels draw water from rustic wells to irrigate vegetable crops in the highland greenhouses of Peruvian farming communities. In the picture, farmer Fermina Quispe is helping to move the solar panels. CREDIT: Courtesy of Fermina Quispe

As a child she witnessed the kidnapping of her father, then lieutenant governor (the local political authority) of the community of Esmeralda, where she was born, also located in Arapa. Her father and her older brother were dragged away by members of the Maoist guerrilla group Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path), which unleashed terror in the country between 1980 and 2000.

“A month later we found my father, they had tortured him and gouged out his eyes. My mother, at the age of 40, was left alone with 12 children and raised us on her own. I finished primary and secondary school but I couldn’t continue studying because we couldn’t afford it, we had nowhere to get the money,” she recalls calmly. Her brother was never heard from again.

She did not have the opportunity to go to university where she wanted to be trained as an early childhood education teacher, but she developed her entrepreneurial skills.

After she married Ciro Concepción Quispe – “he is not my relative, he is from another community,” she clarifies- they dedicated themselves to family farming and managed to acquire several cattle and small livestock such as chickens and guinea pigs, which ensured their daily food.

Her husband is a construction worker in Arapa and earns a sporadic income, and in his free time he helps out on the farm and in community works.

Their eldest daughter, Danitza, 18, is studying education at the public Universidad Nacional del Altiplano in Puno, the departmental capital, where she rents a room. And the youngest, 13-year-old Franco, will finish the first year of secondary school in December. His school is in the town of Arapa, a 20-minute walk from their farm.

Fermina managed to build “my own little house” on a piece of land she acquired on her own and outside of her husband’s land, in order to have more autonomy and a place of her own “if we have conflicts,” she says.

She also began to look for information about support for farming families, bringing together her neighbors along the way. This is how the association she now presides over came into being.

However, the drought, which has not let up since 2021, is causing changes and wreaking havoc in their lives, ruining years of efforts of families such as Fermina’s.

“We have a water crisis and the families are very worried. We are not going to have any production and the cattle are getting thin, we have no choice but to sell. A bull that cost 2,000 soles (519 dollars) we are selling off for 500 (129 dollars). The middlemen are the ones who profit from our pain,” she says.

During her participation in the Encuentro Feminismos Diversos por el Buen Vivir held in Chosica, near Lima, Fermina Quispe, a farmer from the Andes highlands of the department of Puno, in southern Peru, dresses in a colorful lliclla, a handmade Quechua blanket. She is working on solutions in her community to mitigate the impact of a severe drought on subsistence agriculture and livestock production. CREDIT: Mariela Jara / IPS

Solar water pumps

In the face of adversity, “proposals and action” seems to be Quispe’s mantra. She wants to strengthen her vegetable production for self-consumption and is thinking about growing aromatic herbs and flowers for sale. To do so, she needs to ensure irrigation in her six-by-thirteen-meter highland greenhouse where she uses agroecological methods.

During her participation in Cedepas Centro’s training activities, she learned about solar water pumps, which make it possible to pump water collected in rustic wells called “cochas” to gardens and fields. She has knocked on many doors to raise funds to set up solar water pumps in her community.

“Fermina’s gardens and those of 14 other farmers in her community now have solar pumps for irrigation and living fences made of Spanish broom (Cytisus racemosus),” José Egoavil, one of the experts in charge of the institution’s projects, told IPS.

“They are small pumps that run on 120- to 180-watt solar panels,” he says in a telephone interview from Arapa.

He explains that the solar panel is connected to the pump, which sucks the water stored in the wells that the families have dug, or in the “ojos de agua” – small natural pools of springwater – present on some farms. Thus, they can irrigate the vegetable crops in their greenhouses, and the living fences.

“It is a sustainable technology, it does not pollute because it uses renewable energy and maintenance is not very expensive. In addition, the families give something in return, which makes them value it more. Of the total cost of materials, which is about 900 soles (230 dollars), they contribute 20 percent, in addition to their labor,” he says.

Egoavil, a 45-year-old anthropologist, has lived in Arapa for three years. He is from Junín, a department in the center of the country where Cedepas Centro, an organization dedicated to promoting food security and sustainable development in the Andes highlands of central and southern Peru, is based,

“The focus of our work is on food security and a fundamental issue is water for human consumption and production. There have already been two agricultural seasons in which we have harvested much less and we are about to start a new one, but without rain the forecasts are not encouraging,” he says.

Given the water shortage, they have promoted the community participation of families in emergency projects such as solar pumps, which help to ensure their food supply.

In addition, long-range water seeding and harvesting works are underway, such as the construction of infiltration ditches at the headwaters of river basins.

The participation of small farming families is the driving force behind the works and they are responsible for identifying the natural water sources for their conservation and the construction of the ditches that will prevent the water from flowing down the hills when it rains.

“The ditch is like a sponge that retains water, but if it doesn’t rain, we don’t know what will happen,” says Egoavil.

A veterinarian by profession, Jesusa Calapuja, born in the Peruvian highlands, participated in the Encuentro Feminismos Diversos por el Buen Vivir, held on the outskirts of Lima, where she spoke about the reality of peasant families in a context of poverty and water shortages due to drought. CREDIT: Mariela Jara / IPS

Learning to harvest water

Jesusa Calapuja, a 27-year-old veterinarian born in Arapa, is one of the people in charge of technical assistance in agroecological production, planting and water harvesting at Cedepas Centro.

Using the Escuela de Campo (countryside school) methodology, she travels by motorcycle to the different communities where she interacts with farming families. She came with Fermina Quispe to the feminist meeting in Chosica, where IPS interviewed her.

Calapuja also notes changes in the dynamics of the population due to water scarcity. For example, their production no longer generates surpluses to be sold at the Sunday markets; it is barely enough for their own sustenance.

“They don’t have the income to buy what they need,” she says.

She also notices that at training meetings, women and men no longer bring their boiled potatoes or soup made with the oca tuber, or roasted corn for snacks, but only chuño (dehydrated potatoes) or dried beans. The scarcity of their tuber and grain production is evident in their diets.

But Fermina Quispe hastn’t lost her smile in the face of adversity and is confident that her new skills will help the women in her community.

“Our great-great-grandparents harvested water, made terraces and dams; we have only been harvesting, collecting and using. But it won’t be like that anymore and we are taking advantage of the streams so the water won’t be lost. We only hope that the wind does not carry away the rain clouds,” she says hopefully.

By Wambi Michael
Oct 26 2023 – On December 4, 2019, landslides in the Bududa region of Uganda killed 20. The landslides occurred after heavy rains, and a Red Cross report estimated that 96 households were affected, with 49 houses destroyed. It displaced many, while others continued to live in high-risk areas that could “slide at any moment.”

This wasn’t the first or the last incident of flooding – news reports from the region narrate numerous incidents where people died when their homes were buried in landslides after torrential rains.

In Uganda, the case, popularly known as ‘Tsama William and 47 others,’ has been pending since it was filed in 2020.

Williams and others have argued that the Government of Uganda had been aware of the risk of landslides in Bududa for many years, but it had not implemented landslide early warning systems.

They seek relief from the courts, including declarations that their right to life, right to own property, right to physical and mental health, and the right to a clean and healthy environment were infringed when landslides occurred.

“Bududa district is likely to suffer from more landslides in the future because of the past history of landslides and, due to factors such as changing rainfall patterns and increasing extreme weather events caused by climate change and environmental degradation, and that if the affected people are not urgently relocated and resettled, further loss of life, loss of property and infringement of human rights is likely to occur,” reads their founding affidavit.

A fishing village in Uganda’s Albertine Region impacted by floods. Floods and mudslides have become frequent in many parts of Uganda. Credit: Wambi Michael/IPS

The authorities deny their culpability. Julius Muyizi, the lawyer representing the National Environment Management Authority, instead accused William and other residents in the Mount Elgon region of having contributed to landslides through their poor agricultural practices, vegetation clearance, and poor cultivation.

William and his fellow survivors await a court judgment, but it could be a long wait; another similar case has been held up in the courts for more than a decade.

However, like many others caught in climate change-impacted weather events and disasters, William is part of a group of survivors who are increasingly using the courts to test whether governments, businesses, individuals, and local authorities are responsible for the impacts of climate change.

Environment and the Judiciary

Justice Lydia Mugambe, a High Court judge and recently appointed judge at the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals, told judicial officers at a recent training session that the judiciary was crucial in matters of the environment. She was presenting on judicial officers’ role in ensuring climate justice. One question was: Can individuals sue the government over climate change?

“I think the role of the judiciary is a very important one in matters of the environment, and we as the judiciary should take it on with gusto,” she said. “We need to change our mindsets; we need to separate politics from the real issues when cases come before us.”

Mugambe notes that judges need to understand the role of public interest litigation in matters of the environment.

“From my experience in the courts, a case can be brought straightforward as a public interest litigation. But there are cases that come as individual cases. But they are ‘public interest cases’ because of their nature. So, when determining these cases, what kind of remedies do we give?” she asked.

She suggested that judges could give remedies in individual cases that have the effect of creating reforms – this would ensure resolution so that other similar cases won’t need to be prosecuted.

Over the years that Mugambe has worked as a lawyer and later judge, she said she had watched and witnessed environmental damage to Uganda’s forests and water bodies and read about climate change ravaging some of the communities.

She believes judicial officers should take an interest in emerging laws like the country’s newly enacted environmental law.

Judges should ask themselves crucial questions.

“What do these acts and conventions provide? And how can we use them in our judgments? And then what kind of remedies when these cases come before us? Are they meaningful remedies for environmental protection? Do we assess the context of the case before us so that we take account of all the factors?” suggested Mugambe.

The training session Mugambe was addressing was hosted by an environment advocacy NGO known as Greenwatch.

A young boy sits on the rocks that rolled down the mountain with the landslides at Nametsi in Mount Elgon 13 years ago. The landslides destroyed the only school and health center in the area. Credit: Wambi Michael/IPS

Though the area is disaster-prone, the soils in the foothills of Mount Elgon in Bududa district are fertile. Residents risk staying because of good crop yields. Credit: Wambi Michael/IPS

Survivors of a 2010 mudslide in Bududa district. Hundreds died in that disaster. Some of the victims were buried by huge boulders carried down by the impact of the mudslide. Credit Wambi Michael/IPS

Advocacy and Environmental Laws

Greenwatch says it’s crucial that every individual in Uganda knows that they have environmental rights, and these rights can be fully exercised through access to information, justice, and public participation.

Samantha Atukunda Mwesigwa, the director and legal Counsel at Greenwatch, told IPS that training of the judicial officers was critical because there were several environmental disputes in the courts.

“So, it’s important to have a judiciary that is knowledgeable and equipped when it comes to climate aspects, in particular, climate justice,” Mwesigwa explained.

Uganda has joined the global trend of climate litigations in which victims of climate change cite human rights and constitutional violations in their arguments.

The recent Global Trends in Climate Change Litigation: 2021 snapshot recognized the crucial role judges can play in the context of climate justice. Training of Judges was one of the critical areas of concern.

Furthermore, On March 28, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) adopted a historic resolution asking the International Court of Justice (ICJ)—the UN’s principal judicial organ—to provide an advisory opinion clarifying what governments’ obligations are under international law when it comes to tackling climate change.

Justice Richard Buteera, the Deputy Chief Justice of Uganda, agrees that the training is vital because the judges are part of the vanguard of the environmental laws.

“We have to balance between human needs for now. But sustaining the environment for the future. Because in an effort to maintain the environment, these conflicts have to be resolved by courts. And the training is making clear the position of the law,” said Buteera, who previously served as Uganda’s Director for Public Prosecutions.

Each time a new cohort of judges comes in for training, a wealth of information needs consideration. Some judges know a few things about international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Agreement, but because climate change and law are not everyday topics in their chambers, some are skeptical about it.

Bridget Ampurira, a lawyer with Greenwatch, has participated in the training that started in 2019.

She told IPS, “Of course, there are judicial officers who will point out that they are skeptical about climate change and climate Justice. So, they will point out and question us as to the reality of climate change. But there are those who have seen and realized that climate change is a real issue.”

Over 120 judicial officers have been trained. According to Ampurira, of those who have been trained, there has been progress in how they handle the cases before them.

“I can say in terms of court procedure, there has been great improvement in the attention accorded to climate change cases.”

Who is Liable Under International Law?

The late Justice of the Court of Appeal, Kenneth Kakuru, still referred to as one of Uganda’s front runners of environmental law, would raise questions whenever he addressed fellow judges.

“Is the government liable for failure to implement the obligations in international agreements? For example, we have seen children trying to go through a flood. This flood takes a child. Who is liable if the government has not obliged with its obligations?” asked Kakuru. “We owe it to ourselves and the citizens of this world; we owe it to those from whom we inherited this beautiful place. We owe it to our children and their children. To those yet unborn. The time is now, for tomorrow may be too late.”

While the training of judicial officers continues, cases before the Ugandan courts remain unresolved.

Climate Cases Before Ugandan Courts

Greenwatch has, over the years, filed several public interest litigations under Uganda’s constitution, which allows an individual or organization the right to sue the government where it has failed its obligations. Some of the rights can be environmental or climate change elated.

One of those cases is the one commonly known as the ‘Nisi Mbabazi.’ It was filed by Kakuru in 2012 before he was appointed a judge. Kakuru sued on behalf of the surviving minor children of the victims of a natural disaster.

The plaintiffs argued that Article 237 of the Ugandan Constitution makes the government of Uganda a public trustee of the nation’s natural resources—including its atmosphere—and that Articles 39 and 237 require the government to preserve those resources from degradation for both present and future generations. Citing multiple examples of damage and loss of life resulting from extreme weather events, they alleged that the government has breached its constitutional duty.

Climate Justice Denied

Eleven years later, there is still no judgment in this case. Some activists have described the long wait for judgment as an injustice against victims of climate because of the delays.

Ampurira said one of the challenges Greenwatch has faced in the past has been the delay with the justice or a court system beset by adjournments. “So, you would find that a case that should take a year to be settled takes ten years.”

She suggested that the Uganda government should establish an environmental court like the ones established by Kenya to expedite the cases “Because we say justice delayed is justice denied. Kenya has two specialized fora for adjudicating environmental matters.

On July 16, 2023, the Land and Environment Court in Kenya awarded an equivalent of USD 13 million in compensation for the impacts on the environment and the health of a community caused by lead poisoning from a nearby smelter that recycled batteries.

It was the first in Uganda where victims of climate change-related disasters sued the government, asking it to comply with several articles of the Paris Agreement 2015 and articles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which Uganda is a state party.

Peter Kibeti, who witnessed many landslides in Bududa, told IPS, “The landslides are not in a way related to destroying trees. But it has been due to heavy rains. The water has sunk into the soil, leading to the collapse of the slopes. We still have many trees in Bududa. Much as they say we should plant more trees – they also get uprooted by landslides. I cannot believe that cutting down trees causes landside because heavy rains have weakened the soil.”

Yazidhi Bamutaze, an Associate Professor in the Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics, and Climatic Sciences at Makerere University, told IPS that the loss of vegetation and tree cover in Bududa cannot be solely blamed for the rampant landslide disasters.

“We have had previous cases, and they are a combination of factors that lead to the occurrences of landslides in that area. The slopes are quite steep. In some areas, they go over 80 degrees. Then you also have the climatic factors, particularly rainfall. If you look at the data, you realize you get over 1500 millimeters of rainfall,” he said, explaining the multiplicity of causes for the disasters.

International Climate Justice Cases

Internationally the number of climate change cases has more than doubled from 884 in 2017 to 2,180 in 2022, according to the UN Environment Global Climate Litigation Report: 2023 Status Review.

This trend includes cases brought on behalf of “children and youth under 25 years old, including by girls as young as seven and nine years of age in Pakistan and India, respectively, while in Switzerland, plaintiffs are making their case based on the disproportionate impact of climate change on senior women.”

The caseload indicates that human rights links to climate change, protection of the most vulnerable groups, and “increased accountability, transparency and justice, compelling governments and corporations to pursue more ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation goals” are increasing.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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By Magdalena Kirchner
AMMAN, Jordan, Oct 26 2023 – For the first time since the beginning of a war that claimed the lives of over 220,000 people, a senior Houthi delegation travelled from Yemen to Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh in mid-September.

The timing of the visit, just before the anniversary of the capture of the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, on 21 September 2014 and the subsequent military escalation between the rebels (also known as Ansar Allah) and a Saudi-led military coalition, marks a diplomatic success for the de facto rulers of northern Yemen.

This is despite the fact that their only significant concession so far has been the temporary cessation of cross-border attacks using missiles or drones on neighbouring states such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Some observers cynically suggest that Riyadh’s real motivation is not to create an inclusive and lasting peace in war-torn Yemen but ‘not to disturb the newly bought European football stars with the sound of explosions’. However, the Houthis are showing a genuine interest in continuing negotiations with Riyadh and in exploiting the advantageous momentum of an Iranian-Saudi détente.

With Tehran’s support, they have developed a credible military deterrent in recent years. Neither their internal Yemeni opponents nor the latter’s regional and international supporters have succeeded in preventing or even reversing the consolidation of their rule over large parts of the country and its population.

Yet, with the end of Saudi air strikes in April 2022 and the lifting of air and sea blockades crucial to economic prosperity in northern Yemen, the rebels now lack a key driver for mobilising and securing popular support within their own territory: an external enemy.

Normalisation efforts externally, consolidation of power internally

In the past months, critical voices have grown significantly louder, particularly about the fact that while revenues from taxes, increased tariffs on imports from government-controlled areas and the boosted activity at the port of Hodeida have increased by nearly half a billion US dollars between April and November 2022, public sector employees continue to wait for salaries and pensions that have been overdue for years.

Criticism also came from the ranks of the General People’s Congress (GPC), the former unity and ruling party, to whom, until his surprising ouster by the National Security Council on 27 September, the prime minister of the Houthi government, Abdel-Aziz bin Habtoor, had belonged.

Hence, negotiations and the prospect of a financial peace dividend (i.e. an economic boost a country will get from a peace that follows a war) could be enticing and might buy the rebels time at home — even if it remains unclear how payments from a neighbouring state or the internationally recognised government (IRG) can be reconciled with their own claim to be Yemen’s only legitimate government.

Improving relations with regional states, which could offset reduced or even suspended aid from the West, may help reduce the rulers’ dependencies.

In recent months, the Houthi leadership has therefore taken stronger and more repressive measures to consolidate their rule internally. This has been particularly evident in the area of education and through significant restrictions placed on civil society organisations and women’s freedom of movement.

The latter, in particular, has put the rebels on a confrontational course, especially with Western donor states, whose humanitarian support is the livelihood of more than 20 million people across the country. These tensions are further fuelled by the fact that aid organisations’ ability to prevent the misuse of aid by those in power through independent needs assessments is systematically and sometimes violently curtailed.

Improving relations with regional states, which could offset reduced or even suspended aid from the West, may help reduce the rulers’ dependencies. This also explains why, on the anniversary of the capture of the capital, the Houthi leadership publicly announced that it wanted to address any concerns on the part of Saudi Arabia that might stand in the way of an agreement and stated its intent to double its own combat readiness if an ‘honourable peace’ could not be achieved.

The fragility of normalisation efforts between the former adversaries was underscored when a drone strike on a patrol by the Saudi-led military coalition in the Saudi border area with Yemen killed three Bahraini soldiers on 25 September.

Stuck in the starting blocks: an intra-Yemeni peace process

Although the international conflict dimension has de-escalated, this has not yet been accompanied by significant progress in a potential intra-Yemeni peace. In late September, hundreds of Yemenis commemorating the 1962 establishment of the Yemeni Arab Republic were detained in Houthi-controlled areas.

Although military clashes between the Houthi rebels and the armed forces of the IRG and its allies, assembled in the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), have significantly decreased, attacks on government troops have not ceased. In July 2023, the rebels employed drones, battle tanks and artillery in the southwestern governorate of Ad Dali. However, a new form of economic warfare is hitting the IRG and especially the people living in areas under its control even harder;

Since October 2022, the Houthis have been using drones to launch attacks on critical oil production and export facilities in IRG-held areas. According to its own reports, the IRG has suffered losses of more than $1 bn in revenue as a result. The Houthis have also imposed a ban on importing gas from government-controlled territory and made it difficult to trade goods within Yemen, especially those imported via the port of Aden.

Although Saudi Arabia stepped in to assist the struggling IRG by pledging $1.2 bn in economic aid at the beginning of August, the economic situation remains dire. The national currency, the Yemeni Rial, has lost a quarter of its value against the US dollar in the past year alone. Gas stations have frequently had to close in recent months, and the people in the southern city of Aden had to endure power outages of up to 17 hours — in sweltering heat.

Frustration among the population is running high, and there have been repeated roadblocks, injuries and even deaths during protests. Despite increased efforts by European partners to bolster the IRG through more frequent visits and a greater presence in Aden, the glaring weakness of state institutions and lack of unity among key actors in the south remain the government’s biggest Achilles heel.

Former allies become estranged

These intra-Yemeni dynamics make Saudi Arabia’s current negotiating strategy, as well as the support it receives from most international actors, all the more problematic. A statement by the US government on the Riyadh talks failed to mention the IRG or the fact that they, along with the United Nations, other conflict parties and civil society actors, are excluded from these ‘efforts for peace’.

The UAE, the second major regional power with high stakes in the conflict, might feel equally left out. Its allies, such as the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which pursues the goal of southern statehood, could perceive their own interests as being at risk. The once-close relationship between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed is now widely considered to have broken down. At the same time, the former allies now find themselves separated by the tangible geopolitical conflicts of interest in Yemen and the strategically important straits surrounding the country.

The talks in Saudi Arabia offer hope for a peaceful future for Yemen as they shed light on the real political interests of the Houthis, especially in the area of economic cooperation.

It should come as no surprise then that the President of the STC, Aidarus Al Zubaidi, publicly expressed sharp criticism of Riyadh’s actions on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. In his view, a ‘bad deal’, which could ultimately pave the way for a complete Houthi takeover, would primarily lead to Iran gaining control not only of Yemeni oil resources but also of strategically important trade routes.

He firmly rejected the notion of unilateral participation by the Houthis in the state revenues generated in the south – particularly in light of the current emergency situation in the region – as well as concessions related to salaries, seaports or the withdrawal of foreign forces in response to what he sees as blackmail tactics by the Houthis before an actual ceasefire is reached.

The talks in Saudi Arabia offer hope for a peaceful future for Yemen as they shed light on the real political interests of the Houthis, especially in the area of economic cooperation, providing a basis for substantial leverage in longer-term negotiations.

However, as long as Saudi Arabia’s primary objective remains limited to a face-saving exit from its involvement in the war and to securing its own border, there is a growing risk that former allies may disrupt the peace process. Additionally, the danger of new military expansionist efforts by the rebels, with potentially dramatic consequences for an already suffering civilian population, increases.

In view of these scenarios, international actors such as the German government should intensify their efforts to promote Yemen-Yemeni reconciliation, including in areas related to development and economic policy, and enable political institutions to regain the trust of an increasingly disillusioned population.

Dr Magdalena Kirchner heads the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung’s offices for Jordan and Yemen, based in Amman. Previously, she was the FES representative in Afghanistan.

Source: International Politics and Society (IPS)-Journal published by the International Political Analysis Unit of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Hiroshimastrasse 28, D-10785 Berlin

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