By Patrick Devine
NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan 22 2024 – Among East Africa’s dozens of pastoral tribes, major conflicts have erupted repeatedly, largely over land and water disputes.

Generational trauma and anger have built to create tensions and grievances that carry emotional weight even hundreds of years later.

Among some African tribes, warriors returning home from fighting are frequently greeted by women singing. And it is reported that some tribes have no name for an enemy tribe in their language; they simply substitute the word enemy.

These same people could tell you how many of their tribe had been killed by the other tribe, how much capital was stolen, and the exact day each event happened dating back as many as 60 years.

Such cultural and linguistic practices continually reinforce and perpetuate a lingering notion of otherness and violence. And they underline a key point: Each person involved and affected by conflict can contribute to its resolution and peacebuilding.

Founded in 2009 in the aftermath of Kenya’s disputed elections of 2007-2008, Shalom-SCCRR is a non-governmental organization created to help mitigate conflicts in eastern Africa. To date, the organization has initiated about 1,000 interventions in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda, among other countries.

Today, we confront religious ideological radicalization, extremism and conflict in both urban and rural environments and along the entire Kenyan coast. And the only answer to it is to truly empower local people.

SCCRR is committed to transforming conflict into social development and reconciliation, reflecting a belief that violence is fundamentally based on inadequately met human needs.

The aim of our team goes beyond the absence of physical violence to a deep-rooted positive peace where all parties are committed to each other’s well-being, uprooting the causes – not just addressing the symptoms – of conflict by creating transformative grassroot networks.

Trust in SCCRR is fostered in large part by our long term – 5 to 10 year – commitments to building local capacity for negotiation, mediation, and joint problem solving, and by involving community members who can then themselves build their own architectures of peace.

Our staff have, at minimum, masters level university qualifications. These highly-educated peacebuilding practitioners train local politicians and other key thought leaders – chiefs, elders, religious, education, women’s groups, youth and other community influencers.

SCCRR’s approach to reconciliation is based on four pillars:

Ending violence

• Truth, with each side listening to the other, sharing perceptions on their conflicts
• Justice, which requires truthful people genuinely open to objective consideration. Sadly, conflict has a very robust, resilient memory, frequently distorted by erroneous historical narratives and mendacious media reporting
• Mercy: Without which, a negative situation will be entrenched forever in endless cycle

We also advocate on behalf of communities with governments to develop and upgrade institutions to meet, for example, medical, legal or education needs (particularly interethnic or interfaith schools, and education equality).

Over the years, SCCRR has successfully trained over 28,000 community leaders in conflict transformation skills, leading to over 600 local community development projects, to the benefit of over 200,000 school aged children and many others.

While SCCRR can provide bricks and mortar, communities must provide the site, water, and labor, for example. And it is essential to success that a community owns a project themselves.

In recent times, women have made up 60% of the main beneficiaries of SCCRR interventions.

Extreme, systemic, inter-ethnic conflict has left countless people killed, injured or displaced, and debilitated many communities in eastern Africa.

And it is impossible to promote sustained development in places where humanitarian institutions are periodically destroyed or incapacitated. That is why conflict transformation is fundamental to social development and reconciliation.

Rather than seeking new places to live, communities need practical tools for self-sustainability that empower them to thrive where they are.

And as the world grapples with a global migration crisis, the success of SCCRR’s work takes on heightened significance, offering helpful insights and a template for action.

*Rev. Dr. Patrick Devine is International Chairman and Founder of the Shalom Center for Conflict Resolution and Reconciliation (Shalom-SCCRR). In 2013, he received the International Caring Award, whose previous recipients include the Dalai Lama, Bill Clinton, and Mother Teresa.

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By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 22 2024 – In a bygone era, public executions of condemned prisoners were common in certain parts of the United States where the death penalty, mostly with lethal injections, is still in force now.

The hangings, at the turn of the century, apparently were open to the public and the media.

As a prisoner was about to be hanged in the state of Louisiana in the 1950s, according to an anecdote, the Sheriff asked the customary question: “Any last word?” “No”, retorted the condemned man.

But the governor, who was also present at the hanging, wanted to extract some political mileage on his “tough-on-crime” policy, and chipped in: “May I then use your time to make a speech?”, he asked the prisoner.

“Hang me first,” retorted the condemned man, “Make your speech later.”

Although the moral of the story is that some people may rather die than listen to a politician’s drivel, it also points to the fact that the US is one of the few countries in the Western world that has continued to enforce capital punishment with a vengeance.

Last week the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said it was “alarmed” by the imminent execution in the United States of Kenneth Eugene Smith, through the use of a novel and untested method -– suffocation by nitrogen gas, “which could amount to torture or other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment under international human rights law.”

The UN Human Rights Office (HRO) called on Alabama’s state authorities to halt Smith’s execution, scheduled for 25-26 January, and to refrain from taking steps towards any other executions in this manner.

“Nitrogen gas has never been used in the United States to execute human beings. The American Veterinary Medical Association recommends giving even large animals a sedative when being euthanized in this manner, while Alabama’s protocol for execution by nitrogen asphyxiation makes no provision for sedation of human beings prior to execution”.

The protocol, HRO said, also refers to the odourless and colourless gas being administered for up to 15 minutes. Smith has also advanced, with expert evidence, that such an execution by gas asphyxiation, in his case, risks particular pain and suffering.

According to a report on Cable News Network (CNN) on January 21, Alabama is scheduled to carry out the nation’s first execution by nitrogen hypoxia, an alternative to lethal injection.

Kenneth Eugene Smith’s execution by lethal injection was abruptly canceled in November after the state couldn’t properly set the IV line before the warrant for execution expired.

He asked the state to be put to death by nitrogen gas rather than lethal injection after what he called a botched execution, said CNN.

Death by nitrogen hypoxia deprives the brain and body of oxygen, so the inmate would die by suffocation, according to the Death Penalty Information Center, a non-profit that monitors, analyzes and disseminates information about capital punishment.

Smith was convicted along with an accomplice for the 1988 killing of Elizabeth Dorlene Sennett in a murder-for-hire plot.

The death penalty has existed in the United States since colonial times and its history is intertwined with slavery, segregation, and social reform movements, according to the DPI Center.

The Office of the UN Commissioner for Human Rights said: “We have serious concerns that Smith’s execution in these circumstances could breach the prohibition on torture or other cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment, as well as his right to effective remedies”.

These are rights set out in two International Human Rights treaties where the United States is bound by – the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment.

The Human Rights Committee, the UN body charged with monitoring implementation of the Covenant, has also criticized the use of asphyxiation by gas as an execution method, the use of untested methods, as well as widening the use of the death penalty in States that continue to apply it.

“The death penalty is inconsistent with the fundamental right to life. There is an absence of proof that it deters crime, and it creates an unacceptable risk of executing innocent people. Rather than inventing new ways to implement capital punishment, we urge all States to put in place a moratorium on its use, as a step towards universal abolition”.

According to the Death Penalty Information Center, 1,582 men and women have been executed in the United States since the 1970s, although executions have declined significantly over the past two decades. Most executions have been concentrated in a few states and a small number of outlier counties.

Last October, the UN Special Rapporteur on extra-judicial, summary or arbitrary executions, Morris Tidball-Binz, and the UN Special Rapporteur on Torture and other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment, Alice Jill Edwards, reiterated their call for the complete abolition of the death penalty.

Meanwhile, Amnesty International, a leading human rights organization, says the death penalty breaches human rights, in particular the right to life and the right to live free from torture or cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.

Both rights are protected under the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted by the UN in 1948.

The countries that currently maintain the death penalty include Singapore, Japan, the United States, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, the Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, Belarus, Malaysia, and Thailand.

In 2022, the five countries with the highest number of people executed were, in descending order: China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the US.

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By Ehtesham Shahid
ABU DHABI, Jan 22 2024 – “Middle East” or “West Asia?” This somewhat divided nomenclature adds another layer to the region’s already “complicated” label. Is it the “Middle East” because it is in the “middle” of the East? Is it “West Asia” because it is in the western part of Asia? So, why is the region mostly called the Middle East? It is “geographically ambiguous” to some, as it is “East” only from the “West’s” perspective. The term West Asia has fewer challengers, but it isn’t used as much.

Ehtesham Shahid

According to Principles of Nomenclature and Classification, a fundamental problem for nomenclature is the existence of two or more names for the same taxon, for only one name can be considered correct or valid. Taxon is not so much of a contention in this case; a lack of unison exists. The names of geographical regions have had historical, cultural, and sometimes even linguistic significance.

Some region’s names are based on events that took place there. For instance, the “Balkans” in South-eastern Europe is named after the Balkan Mountains, which have played a significant role in the region’s history. Geographical features often influence names, too. North America’s “Rocky Mountains” are named for their rugged terrain, while the Amazon rainforest is named after the Amazon River.

Some regions have been named after prominent geographic features or valuable resources. For instance, the Sahara Desert is named after the Arabic word for “desert,” and Sierra Nevada means “snowy range” in Spanish. More importantly, political factors have played a role in naming regions with borders and administrative divisions, leading to new names, often for practical or administrative purposes.

The widespread perception behind the term “Middle East” is that it originated in the 1850s in the British India Office. It is also documented that the name was more widely used after American naval strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan used the term in 1902 to “designate the area between Arabia and India.” However, the term was used mainly in a Eurocentric context to refer to the countries and territories of the Ottoman Empire and the surrounding regions.

The Middle East is geographically situated on the western edge of Asia, bordered by Asia to the east and northeast. This geographical proximity and the interconnected history, culture, and trade between the Middle East and other Asian regions have contributed to its classification as part of Asia. Fortunately or otherwise, these terms have no strict, universally accepted definition, and their usage can vary depending on context and perspective.

“West Asia” is a more modern term that has gained popularity, especially in academic and geopolitical contexts, and is often seen as a more neutral and geographically accurate descriptor for the region. It is often used as an alternative to “Middle East,” avoiding some historical and cultural connotations associated with the region. Whichever way one looks at it, a nomenclature clash goes against the ethos of constructivism in international relations, which emphasizes the role of ideas, norms, and identities in shaping state behavior and global politics.

Another school of thought maintains that the term Middle East has been associated with the broader region’s cultural and historical ties to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Arab world and often implies a broader cultural and historical context. The exact boundaries of the Middle East or West Asia can vary depending on these perspectives. Moreover, both the terms have evolved and have historical, geopolitical, and cultural significance.

Some definitions may include specific countries, while others may exclude them. For example, Egypt and Turkey are sometimes included in the Middle East but are more accurately described as transcontinental countries. These terms are primarily geopolitical and do not necessarily reflect cultural, historical, or linguistic differences. Political considerations and regional sensitivities may also often influence the choice of terminology.

Both terms are widely used in practice, and their boundaries can be somewhat fluid. The choice between “Middle East” and “West Asia” often depends on the context, the specific focus of the discussion, and regional preferences. It only shows that naming countries and regions has often been a source of incongruities and anomalies due to historical, political, cultural, and linguistic factors.

Some examples from outside the region illustrate this argument. Geographic names can sometimes lead to anomalies when they do not accurately reflect the territory they encompass. For instance, the Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire) was named after its principal export, but it does not cover the entire country.

The legacies of imperialist powers have been the most potent factor behind incongruous names. These examples illustrate how a complex interplay of historical events, political power dynamics, linguistic diversity, and cultural identities has shaped naming conventions. Seen in its entirety, incongruities in nomenclature can persist and often reflect colonial legacy, territorial disputes, or changing political circumstances.

Ehtesham Shahid is an Indian editor and researcher based in the UAE. X: @e2sham

“The article first appeared in Khaleej Times.” (https://www.khaleejtimes.com/opinion/settling-the-middle-east-vs-west-asia-debate)

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By Saifullah Syed
ROME, Jan 22 2024 – The parliamentary elections held in Bangladesh on 7 January, 2024, has created much controversy in the country, terming it an “election of the Awami League (AL) government, for the AL government and by the AL government”, by many. Internationally, China and India have congratulated the government for victory and organization of a fair election. But, several western countries have termed it as unsatisfactory. However, irrespective of the diverse views, everyone agrees that it was not participatory elections. Voter turn out was significantly low and it was boycotted by the main opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP).

Saifullah Syed

Prior to the election, the USA and several western countries indicated that failure to hold fair and free election will have consequences. As a result, Bangladesh’s policy analysts are concerned and discussing the likely implications of the election on the economy and in particular the garment industry.

While international push back are legitimate concerns, what is more worrisome is that Bangladesh may be unwittingly sleep walking to dictatorship under one party rule. Several commentators are suggesting that Sheikh Hasina is becoming an authoritarian ruler from being a champion of democracy and the AL is projecting itself as the sole guarantor of independence, sovereignty and secularism. Everyone else is out there to turn it into a hot bed of Islamic extremism. Such rationales alluding to moral right to rule are perfect ingredients for sleepwalking into dictatorship.

The one-party dictatorships are generally more stable and perverse and the elections legitimizes one party dictatorship by presenting an image of democracy.

History teaches us that one party rule or dictatorship goes against the basic foundation of Bengali values. However, successful moves to stop it can only be launched by understanding why and how it is emerging.

Democracy in Bangladesh

Bangladesh initiated non-party caretaker government (CGT) system for running elections as per demand of the AL in 1991. By all accounts the 1991 election was fair and the CGT worked satisfactorily to hold general elections also in 1996 and 2001. Interestingly, in 1991 the BNP won and in 1996 the AL won and in 2001 the BNP won again.

What went wrong thereafter ? The system ran into difficulties in 2006 due to BNP’s refusal to follow the rules governing the CTG . This led to political crisis of 2006-2008 and brought the military into power. However, a fair election was finally held in 2008 and the AL achieved overwhelming victory. Since then, the AL started getting emboldened and in 2011 it abolished the CTG system. Consequently, BNP launched movement to restore the CTG and started refusing to participate in elections unless it is done. The AL is adamantly refusing to reintroduce CTG, saying it is unconstitutional.

Therefore, it would seem that the core challenge facing our democratic system is two-fold: how to convince AL to introduce the CTG? or how to convince BNP to participate in elections under the ruling government? These challenges may appear easily resolvable through dialogue. Unfortunately, the two parties are mired in deep animosity. For AL, the founder of BNP is linked to the cruel murder of the founder of Bangladesh and his family and the current leader of BNP is accused of master minding the grenade attack on a AL rally on 21 August 2004, killing 24 people and injuring about 200. For the BNP, it has zero trust in AL and considers ditching of the current party leader, Begum Khaleda Zia – with the name Zia, as its existential threat.

Can the civil society or the international community mediate a solution ? Unfortunately, civil society is fragmented along party lines and partly lost its neutrality during the 2006-2008 crisis, when some components stepped into politics. The international community is also divided between the East and the West and a vast majority in the country believes that their call for democracy is motivated by geo-political interests.

Who will blink first ?

Judging from the past, neither is likely to give in under the present leadership. Hence, to save democracy in Bangladesh, everyone concerned needs to come out of hybernation and build a national consensus. BNP leadership must answer for the accusations and face the consequences. Its stalwart leaders should ensure that, instead of slavish subordination. The civil society should shade political color and influence of the ‘funders’, and the international community should accept local dynamics and realities. If all concerned fail to put the country first it will not bode well for democracy in Bangladesh.

The Bengali people will surely rise against one party rule. Success of rebellion will be shaped by the leadership it fosters. Any leadership tainted by criminal accusations and historical misdeeds will fail to obtain broad-based support. People may give the ‘benefit of doubt’ to civil crimes, but may not for criminal crimes, even if portrayed as ‘politically motivated’. Partisan support alone cannot bring down a one party dictatorship. A broad-based national movement is essential. It cannot happen under leadership tainted by criminal accusations. For a democratic Bangladesh, the country needs an opposition led by people who are not and cannot be tainted by criminal accusations and offer AL the moral high ground by default.

The author is a former UN official who was Chief of Policy Assistance Branch for Asia and the Pacific of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

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By Busani Bafana
SEOUL, Jan 22 2024 – If the fear of sharps makes a visit to the doctor dreadful, you need not dread it anymore.

A South Korean company’s invention of an innovative micro-needle patch could make you look forward to your next doctor’s visit.

The micro-needle patch (MAP) is a painless, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly way to administer vaccines and drugs in place of solid injections, its developers say.

The MAP system has the combined advantages of conventional patches and syringes. It has tiny needles whose tips are less invasive and almost painless when administering drugs, Chi Yong Kim, Research Coordinator at QuadMedicine, tells IPS.

“The feeling of the micro-needle is like a cat’s tongue. It’s like a scratch that does not cause pain,” Kim says of the MAP, which also delivers active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in the correct amounts.

QuadMedicine has patented the form of micro-needle patches that are separable MAPs, where the tips of the needle themselves are active APIs. In delivering the API, the tips of the micro-needle are inserted into the skin and break off, reducing delivery time and increasing delivery efficiency by almost 100 percent, said Kim.

Kim notes that the MAPS also offer the advantage of portability, and they are stable at room temperature, making them easy to carry, store, and transport before they are administered. Besides, the MAP can be recycled safely without generating much waste.

According to the World Health Organization, annually, an estimated 16 billion injections are administered worldwide, but not all of the needles and syringes are properly disposed of, making it necessary to ensure safe and environmentally sound management of health care waste.

Chi Yong Kim, Research Coordinator, QuadMedicine. Credit: Busani Bafana/IPS

“Alternatively, we can also freeze dry forms of vaccines that use the same powder form of API,” he said, adding that lyophilized powder can be attached to the MAP.

The company is now investigating comparable vaccines and drugs, for instance, the messenger mRNA vaccines that can be used in the microneedle or patch platform. Plans are afoot to submit an IND filing for a clinical trial soon, and prototypes of the coated MAP and the separable MAP will be tested through Phase I to III clinical trials.

Kim said low- and middle-income countries as well as the premium market were targeted for innovation, which means vaccine-loaded MAPs will be affordable for global health.  For example, certain vaccines, such as the influenza vaccine, have a dosage-saving effect when applied with a micro-needle. The same amount of antigen used for the intramuscular route with a syringe is no longer used, so the API amount can be reduced when loaded on the micro-needles.

While professionals like medical staff or doctors must currently inject vaccines, the goal with the micro needles or patches is that volunteers can give them to patients who need vaccinations.

“I have a fear of the sharps,” Kim said, explaining that each time he visited the hospital, nurses asked him to relax so that his muscles could not be punched.

“I took my kids to the family doctor, and there was one option, the solid micro needle,” he said, explaining that a personal experience with the fear of needles was a coincidental decision for him to specialize at QuadMedicine, which has been involved in the development of the MAPS and patches.

“We have been developing new platforms to deliver vaccines and drugs through coated MAP or dissolvable MAP, which is a possible alternative to solid needles and a better solution to deliver the correct amount of the drugs and vaccines for our body to make good immune responses.”

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By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Jan 22 2024 – Increasing numbers of countries are experiencing a spreading demographic condition, below replacement fertility, with many governments bemoaning the birthrate blues.

Without compensating international migration, a fertility rate below the replacement level, which in most instances is approximately 2.1 births per woman, leads to population decline, a near universal fear among nations that have become addicted to population growth.

Fertility rates below the replacement level were relatively uncommon in the distant past with few if any countries experiencing the birthrate blues. Today, in contrast, many of the countries with sustained rates of fertility below the replacement level are facing demographic decline accompanied by population aging and as a result are suffering from the birthrate blues.

Largely as a result of sustained levels of below replacement fertility and the absence of compensating international migration, more than forty countries are expected to experience population decline over the coming decades of the 21st century

The fertility rate in Italy, for example, which fell below the replacement level in the late 1970s, continued to remain well below replacement and is now at 1.2 births per woman. During the 21st century, Italy’s fertility rate has been no less than a half child below the replacement level.

Expressing her nation’s concerns about its low birthrate at a population summit in September 2023, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni remarked in her keynote speech, “In our view, demography is not just another of the main issues of our nation. It is the issue on which our nation’s future depends.”

Similarly, the fertility rate in China has remained below the replacement level since the early 1990s and is now nearly one child below that level. China’s population, which declined last year for the second year in a row, is experiencing the birthrate blues with fears about the impact of demographic decline and population aging.

Remarking about the country’s low fertility rate, Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged women to have more children and has said that it’s necessary to “actively cultivate a new culture of marriage and childbearing and strengthen guidance on young people’s view on marriage, childbirth and family.”

Even lower than the fertility rates of China and Italy, South Korea currently has the world’s lowest fertility rate at 0.8 births per woman, or nearly a third of replacement level fertility. Suffering from the birthrate blues, the Korean government has spent more than $200 billion over the past 16 years aimed at encouraging more people to have children. Despite those pro-natalist efforts, the country’s fertility rate is expected to decline even further to 0.7 births per woman in the near future.

In 2022, more than one hundred countries and territories, representing two-thirds of world’s population, experienced fertility rates below the replacement level with many governments bemoaning the birthrate blues.

Among those countries with below replacement fertility are Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, the United Kingdom and the United States (Figure 1).

Source: United Nations.

Largely as a result of sustained levels of below replacement fertility and the absence of compensating international migration, more than forty countries are expected to experience population decline over the coming decades of the 21st century.

The expected percent declines in population size by 2050 are 5 percent for Germany, 8 percent for China and Russia, 12 percent for Italy, Hungary and South Korea, 12 percent for Poland and 16 percent for Japan. The projected percent declines in population size are considerably greater by the close the century, with declines of no less than 40 percent in China, Japan, Poland and South Korea (Figure 2).

Source: United Nations.

A number of other countries with fertility levels below the replacement level are not expected to experience population decline any time soon. They are projected to continue growing over the coming decades due to international migration.

Without international migration, however, countries with fertility rates remaining below the replacement level, such as Canada, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States, would also experience population decline in the coming decades. For example, whereas Canada’s current population is expected to increase by nearly 20 percent by mid-century, without international migration the Canadian population is projected to be 4 percent smaller by 2050 (Figure 3).

Source: United Nations.

In response to the birthrate blues, some 55 countries, including China, France, Hungary, Iran, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South Korea, Spain and Thailand, have adopted policies and established programs to raise fertility, which are aimed at addressing demographic decline and population aging.

Most countries with low fertility, including those with no official policies to raise fertility rates, have adopted pro-natalist policies and programs promoting childbearing and child rearing. Among governmental efforts aimed at incentivizing childbearing are paid parental leave with job security, flexible work hours, subsidized child care, tax credits, baby bonuses, cash incentives and child/family allowances.

The birthrate blues have also led some governments to advance a “birth-friendly culture”. In addition to promoting childbearing and steps aimed at reducing the costs of raising children, the birth-friendly culture includes government-organized matchmaking events, public information campaigns emphasizing marriage and family building, and programs encouraging couples to have more babies.

Various economic, social and personal factors are believed to contribute to low fertility rates, which often result in the birthrate blues. Those factors include urbanization, reduction in child labor, higher education, women’s employment, difficulties in finding a suitable marriage partner, reluctance to get married, female subordination and discrimination, lifestyle choices, changing gender norms, economic concerns, financial stress, modern contraceptives, delayed childbearing, employment hindrance, career penalty, lack of affordable childcare, high costs of child rearing as well as concerns about climate change and the environment.

Attempts to counter those influential factors with pro-natalist government policies and programs have largely been unsuccessful in raising fertility rates back to the replacement level. Consequently, many countries are suffering the birthrate blues as they confront demographic decline and population aging.

In 1950 zero percent of the world’s population resided in countries with below replacement fertility and the world’s fertility rate was close to five births per woman. By 2000, that proportion increased to 41 percent and the global fertility rate fell by nearly half to 2.7 births per woman. Today the proportion of the world’s population living in countries with below replacement fertility stands at 67 percent and the fertility rate for the world is 2.3 births per woman.

United Nations population projections assume that the proportion of the world’s population residing in countries with fertility below the replacement level will continue to increase over the coming decades. By the close of the 21st century, 85 percent of the world’s population is expected to be living in countries with fertility below the replacement level and the world’s fertility rate is projected to fall to 1.8 births per woman (Figure 4).

Source: United Nations.

Also by the end of the 21st century, approximately 18 countries, representing 15 percent of the world’s population and located primarily in Africa, will maintain a fertility rate at or slightly above the replacement level. Among those countries are Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Niger, Somalia, Sudan and Tanzania.

With their current fertility rates ranging from four to six births per woman, those African countries are expected to continue experiencing rapid population growth throughout the 21st century. For example, the population of the Democratic Republic of the Congo currently at 102 million and with a fertility rate of 6.1 births per woman is expected to more than quadruple by 2100, increasing to 432 million.

Based on fertility trends observed over the recent past as well as population projection assumptions about fertility levels in the future, several conclusions are warranted.

First, since the middle of the 20th century below replacement fertility has spread across countries worldwide and ushered in the birthrate blues. An important result of that demographic trend is that the world’s total fertility rate fell from 4.9 births per woman in 1950 to 2.3 births per woman in 2022.

Second, below replacement fertility rates are expected to continue spreading across the globe throughout the 21st century with additional countries suffering the birthrate blues. As a result of its spreading, the total fertility rate for the world is expected to decline to the replacement level by 2060 and further decline to 1.8 births per woman by 2100.

Third, once a country’s fertility rate falls below the replacement level, it tends to remain there. Few countries have experienced a reversal of that dominant fertility decline pattern.

Finally, while governments and others may wish to continue with pro-natalist policies and programs, countries are not likely to succeed in their efforts to raise fertility rates back to or above the replacement level any time soon. Accordingly, countries experiencing sustained levels of below replacement fertility and bemoaning the birthrate blues would be prudent to recognize demographic realities and prepare for and adapt to demographic decline and population aging.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division. He is the author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.